Bursaspor match was spot on. Long 0-0 and Burs eventually winning 0-2. Sunderland scored 3 goals and were more in keeping with their performance against Wigan than other strugglers.3-0 was unforeseen but I did add my caveat that 6 pointers can create shocks.
Bradford won again in extra time to keep that extraordinary record going. An Arsenal without Giroud and Walcott was weak in attack.
Quite obviously Norwich have attentions elsewhere letting Villa score 4. Roma and Valencia won and Ibra scored a hatrick for PSG – what would they do without him?
I layed Trabzon at 0-1 up away to Galatasary but Gala were unable to get back. We are betting blind really in this kind of a cup match. Weakened Gala side? I did mention Trab were strong in their league but Gala’s home record in the cup was superb which hinted that they took it seriously.
1030am – Al Ahly v Corinthians – 1.38 away – World Club Cup and there is nothing to go on bar the odds. Corinthians 1.38 are expected to beat the Egyptian side.
11am – Litex Lovech v Spartak Varna – 1.11 home – Bulgarian Cup. We saw yesterday that Cup matches in countries whose football is not familiar day in and day out can be difficult. Here we have 3rd in top flight v 6th in apparent 2nd tier. 5 consecutive clean sheets, 5 consecutive wins for Litex.
13 clean sheets in last 18 at home in all competitions.
15 clean sheets in last 23 cup matches. I hope you are seeing Litex’s area of expertise!!
They have only recently lost in the Cup to CSKA and Plovdiv, 2 1-0’s and a 2-1.
At home, only Plovdiv have beaten Litex in the cup since 2006.
It’s 0-1 to Lovech from the 1st leg.
In contrast Varna have conceded in last 8 in all competitions. Varna progressed on pens last round after 2 2-2 draws.They have conceded in 9 of last 10 cup matches.
This is apparently a 2 legged affair and I suppose Litex backers and goal merchants will have the 0-1 scoreline as a benefit. The tie is not over. 1.11 suggests a 3/4 goal minimum haul and a possible win to nil, and looking at Litex’s efforts, a clean sheet is very probable. That’s where I would seek the value – correct scores.
4pm – Hajduk Split v Zelina – 1.16 home. 1-1 on aggregrate for this Croatian match featuring 2nd in top flight v 3rd in 2 HNL table
Split are unbeaten in 9 in all competitions, 6 clean sheets.They are capable of scoring 2-3-4 at home but not in last 3. Only 2 defeats in last 13 at home, one was against Inter Milan.
Only Dinamo Zagreb have beaten Split in the Cup.They are unbeaten in last 17 , but lost in extra time and pens in 2 matches.
Last defeat at home in 90 minutes came in 2005 in the Cup.
As befits a team 3rd in their league, Zelina are in good form with only 2 defeats in last 18 in all competitions.
Tough to read their Cup form as this is only their 2nd year in the Cup and they have been playing earlier round minnows.
The Split 1.16 looks illiquid . Again another match where the scoreline may help ensure Split give 100% . Only Dinamo Zagreb have beaten them in the Cup.Split don’t have a tendency to score bucket loads and against an inform team in their league, might not get the 3/4 expected if the odds are accurate.
6pm – Lyon v Nancy – 1.38 home – league match
HEAD TO HEADS
Nancy won last head to head but at Lyon , the home side have scored 3-4-3 in head to heads.
LEAGUE POSITION – 1st v 20th. What is immediately striking is that Lyon are only 1.38 . Hmmmm! Top of the league is so tight that home matches against bottom sides must be won.
HOME TEAM – -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Lyon
RECENT HOME FORM – WWWLWWWW – sole defeat v 6th. Have scored 5-3-2-4 against 13th, 15th, 17th and 19th. 4 clean sheets in last 5 wins at home.
RECENT FORM OVERALL – WWDWWDLDWWDWLWWW – last 2 wins 1-0 against 4th and 12th. Recent loss was 3-0 away to 11th. In 2 defeats, the only 2 defeats, this season, Lyon failed to score.
GOAL TRENDS – 50/50 overs at home. Average 2.38 scored at home. 12 scored at home in 2nd half so if quiet first half expect some action. The opponent has not led at halftime at Lyon this season. Gomis and Lopez are key players at home
STREAKS – 8 at home without a draw. 4 match home winning streak. 2 clean sheets at home and 2 overall.
AWAY TEAM – past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Nancy
RECENT AWAY FORM – DLLLLDD – no win away. 2 of 3 draws have come against bottom 3 sides. All draws score draws. Lost 4-0 to 4th and 2-1 to 7th.
RECENT OVERALL FORM – WDLLLLLLDLLLDDDD – 4 consecutive score draws, 3 1-1 v 19th, 17th, 18th, 5th.Only win came 1st match of the season, a 1-0.
GOAL TRENDS – 57% overs away from home. No clean sheets. Only 1 clean sheet all season was 1st match of the season. have scored in last 6. Have conceded 8 in first half hour of matches and 5 in last 1/2 hour of matches.
STREAKS – 15 overall without a win, 7 away. Have conceded in last 15. 4 match draw streak
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – a draw streak suggests Nancy are tough to beat while still conceding. BUT on closer inspection, 3 of the recent draws were against 17th, 18th and 19th. No clean sheets recently for Nancy suggests Lyon will score some time. No draw at home for Lyon implies home win rather than away win. Historically Lyon at home score 3/4 against Nancy. The match odds would be shorter if that were expected. Goal trends are incongruous. I would back the 1-1 insurance bet perhaps while looking for an eventual Lyon win. if quiet first half, expect Lyon to be scoring 2nd half as they have this season.
630pm – Fenerbahce v Goztepe – 1.2 home – Turkish cup and pay attention to Galatasary’s poor showing at home yesterday. These 2 last met in 2003.
2nd in Super Lig v 15th in 1 Lig
Only 2 defeats in last 15 for Fener and one was in European competition. Only 2 defeats in last 38 matches at home and again one in European competition.
Unbeaten in the Cup in last 7 matches and 3 consecutive clean sheets.
Only 2 defeats in 26 home cup matches.
3 consecutive clean sheets and 3 wins for Goz is not the norm .Only 1 draw in 24 away matches for Goz.
recently, it’s 9 losses in last 12 aways. They failed to score in 7 of those defeats.
Have won their last 3 cup matches but those seem to be early round affairs.
Trabzon last night v Galatasary were actually in good form. This is where today’s match differs. Goztepe are not in good form, and away from home generally have lost recently and not scored. I do not expect Fenerbahce to have the problems Galatasaray had yesterday.
Remember though this is an obscure cup in a country we are not familiar with. team news is hard to check. Will Fener do an Arsenal?
7pm – Ath Bilbao v Eibar – 1.33 home – 14th in top flight plays 3rd in segunda. Bilbao v inconsistent of late overall. DWLWLDWLDW – at home, only Getafe and Lyon have beaten them. They haven’t scored in their last 2 home games so that could be a sequence to end tonight when priced to win well.
Only Barca have beaten them in the Cup in last 15 matches. 0-0 with eibar from the first leg suggests Bilbao can shut them out and with home advantage end their scoreless mini sequence.
A superb 15 match run without a loss ended with a 1-0 away defeat lately. Eibar are like Trabzon yesterday – in good form.
3 1-1’s in the last 5 away matches and a 1-1 could take them through on away goals if that is how sPanish cup 2 leg matches operate.
Bilbao are really the only recognisable team that Eibar have played in the cup so their winning run in said cup should be put into context.
Eibar have not conceded in last 3 aways.
If usual 2 legged rules apply, then Bilbao dare not concede an away goal and must avoid a score draw. Therein lies our possible angles in.
7pm – Cordoba v Barcelona – 1.28 away – 11th in Segunda play , well, barcelona!
No win in 5 for Cordoba includes 3 consecutive draws now. Tonight’s match is the 1st leg so bear that in mind. Barca do not need to win. Cordoba need to keep a clean sheet. Only 2 defeats at home since November 2011 is strong form
cordoba have won their last 4 1st leg at home cup matches. Indeed they are unbeaten in 9 cup matches at home, against the likes of Vallecano, Santander, Depor, Espanyol and Real Sociedad – plenty of La Liga opposition.
Unbeaten in 14 in the Cup, Barcelona won 11 of those, keeping 8 clean sheets. 2 draws against Real Madrid and Valencia and an extra time defeat to Real Madrid. 3-1-2-2-1-3-3- scored by Barca away lately in the cup. 2 consecutive clean sheets and 0-3 wins
Do bear in mind this is a 1st leg, so it’s the first half. barca have a great away record in the cup and tend to win 1st legs away. Note November last year a single 0-1 v ‘Hospitalet could suggest a weakened side for Barca? team news will reveal confidence in another possible 3 goal shut out this evening. cordoba could be firm resistance, so a prolonged 0-0 could be on the cards at good odds for the trader ( to stay in for as long as you dare).
745pm – Swansea v Middlesbrough – 1.71 home – Swans in solid recent form, losing 1-0 to City and 3-4 to Norwich in recent matches. They have beaten Liverpool, drawn with Chelsea and beaten Arsenal lately.
Only 2 wins in last 8 at home though down to conceding 2-3-2-1-1-0-1-4.
Only 1 draw in last 12 cup matches and both teams have scored in 6 of the last 7 cup matches. Swans have scored 3 now in last 3 and dispatched Liverpool latest.Have scored 3 in 3 of last 4 at home.
Only 1 draw in last 13 for Boro in all competitions. 3 defeats in last 5. Only 1 win in last 4 away was a 2-3.
Only 1 cup draw in last 20 matches. Have won 6 of last 7 away in the cup including the scalp of Blunderland, the only premiership opponents of late.
Odds like 1.71 suggests both teams could score , indeed this is something characteristic of swans cup matches. Draws tend to be avoided by both sides. 1-1, 2-1, 3-1 kind of scoreline tonight I would imagine. I would favour Swansea in their current form.
745pm – Arbroath v Celtic – 1.14 away – 1-1 from the first leg has to be put into context , prior to an important Champions League match. The Bhoys are likely to field the Big Bhoys tonight and put Arbroath to the sword. I said it in my league analysis of Celtic – they love playing away from home.Team news will confirm whether to go with 3/4 goals minimum and possible win to nil.
745pm – Cowdenbeath v St Johnstone – 1.52 away – 2 postponements so far and I have done the analysis previously. Check yesterday’s post.
8pm – Juventus v Cagliari – 1.31 home – Juve unbeaten in last 5 head to heads with just a single draw.
Juve have only lost to the Milan sides in last 26 matches in all competitions.
Only 2 losses at home in 38 against Inter and Napoli. 4-0-3-3- scored in last 4 home matches.
Juve seem less concerned with the Cup.LLWLWLDWWDL latest in the cup. Have conceded in 5 of last 6.
Juve have conceded 2 in last 2 home cup matches.
Only 1 win in last 7 for Cagliari was a 4-2 win against struggling Pescara. Both teams have scored in last 4 cup matches. Only 1 draw in last 16 for Cagliari in the cup.
Have lost their last 4 aways in the cup without scoring., albeit going back to 2009
Advantage Juve here but marginally given they do not seem overtly concerned with the Cup , at least when you relate it to their league form.
Not a match of any appeal to me.
9pm – Atl Madrid v Getafe – 1.43 home – head to heads see Madrid dominant at home scoring 2 or 3 to no reply. Getafe are more competitive at their gaff.
Madrid have only lost to Real Madrid and Valencia domestically and had 2 losses in Europe. 19 wins in last 23 matches though is superb stuff.
No defeat in 17, winning last 14 home matches. 5 consecutive clean sheets, 2-2-3-2-1-4-1-6 scored in recent matches.
Recent Cup exploits, 2011, poor, seeing 4 out of 4 defeats against real and Albacete. This questions Madrid’s attitude to the cup. But I always say that a team on a winning run, regardless of their next match, wants to keep the winning run going , simply to add to the confidence instilled.
Tight at home in last 5 cup matches, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-1, 1-0 so don’t particularly expect the free scoring of league form
Getafe unbeaten in last 5, drawing 2 of them. 1-0-0-0-1 conceded in those matches. Only loss in last 6 away was a 2-0 v today’s opponents.
2 defeats in last 9 in the cup against Betis and Malaga. Getafe have scored 2-2-4 in their last 3 aways in the cup so could be a little more carefree in the cup.
Not as straightforward a task as the odds suggest. Madrid seem to be different in the cup to their free scoring in the league. Getafe are scoring plenty in the cup , but not the league.
A messy match for me with no stats pulling in a single direction. 1st leg so bear that in mind ( Madrid will not want to concede).
9pm – Celta Vigo v Real Madrid – 1.4 away
Most recent meeting October 2012 saw a 2-0 home win for Real.
Only 1 win in 10 for Celta sees them in really poor form.
Only 2 defeats in 24 at home though is a surprise but we need to realise some matches were in the Segunda liga.
4 consecutive home draws now for Celta.
Only 1 win in 90 minutes in last 9 cup matches. Only 1 defeat since 2008 at home in the cup was a 0-1 by Atl Madrid.
A walking contradiction are Celta Vigo it would seem.
4 match winning run for Real now. last 2 league losses recently were 1-0 aways. Have drawn twice in Europe lately, and tend to win the other matches.
3-2-4-3 scored in last 4 sees Real back to their free scoring best.
Real have conceded in 21 of their last 23 away matches in all competitions.
Only 1 defeat in last 13 cup matches was almost inevitably against Barcelona. Also drew with Barca in that 2 legged affair. 7 clean sheets in last 12 cup matches.
Unbeaten in last 7 cup aways, winning 5 and keeping 5 clean sheets.
1st leg of the cup this match so no great need to bust a gut. A nice 5 day break to next league match should see the real big boys out. Real are back to scoring 2+ goals – will this continue? 4 consecutive home draws for Celta – this is a sequence whose probability for another draw will subside with each consecutive home match.
