Not a bad stab at Cheltenham’s meeting last Saturday. A case of ‘hitting the post’ on a couple. In the 12.40 Cheltenham I did single out Nicky Henderson as having won three of the last three runnings of the race. Alas, I neglected to mention his Protek de Flos, which dotted up at 25/1, As famous racing commentator Homer Simpson would say, “D’oh!”
In the 1.15 Cheltenham last Saturday, I pointed to only one winning favourite in the last nine runnings. The favourite on this occasion finished fourth at 3/1 odds.
The same with the 1.50 Cheltenham. No favourite won this race in recent runnings. The favourite on this occasion was odds on at 5/6 and fell. So that was a profitable lay if you took it. I put forward a 5/1 or 6/1 horse each way. The winner was at odds of 9/2 – oh so close – and second was a 6/1 horse, so you would have got a return following this advice.
In the 2.25 Cheltenham I put up a 6/1 or 13/2 odds horse each way. I did not name the horse, just went with the odds. Annacotty won at 13/2 and was the only qualifier in that race.
I pointed to Alan King doing well in the 3.00 Cheltenham and his Yanworth won, alas at only 2/1. His previous winners were 12/1 and 16/1 horses.
The 3.35 Cheltenham I opted for a 5/2, 11/4 or 3/1 horse. There was a qualifier but he finished out of the places.
In the 4.10 Cheltenham, I mentioned no winner at 7/1. The winner on this occasion? 13/2. Second-placer? 13/2. Third-placer? 13/2! I mentioned an 11/2 or 6/1 horse each way. I do hope you employed some flexibility and found the winner!
Interesting, isn’t it, that I did not necessarily tip a horse? Rather I tipped by odds! And it seemed to allow us to shortlist horses in that Cheltenham meeting. This is something I am keen to continue with and will do for you for the big Cheltenham Festival itself in March.
This has the makings of another potential strategy and I’ll be checking out the past winners at www.racingpost.com for certain high-profile race meetings. The section is for members only at www.racingpost.com. I’ll report back to see if the winners flow –then it may be worth joining the members’ club.
Heavy ground lays?
What do these three horses have in common: Sutton Manor; Hard Bought; Crin Au Vent? They were all hot favourites who lost.
What else did they have in common? They all ran on heavy ground!
I am keeping record of apparent red-hot favourites, as indicated by this element of the Racing Post.
In the 1.15 Cheltenham last Saturday, I pointed to only one winning favourite in the last nine runnings. The favourite on this occasion finished fourth at 3/1 odds.
The same with the 1.50 Cheltenham. No favourite won this race in recent runnings. The favourite on this occasion was odds on at 5/6 and fell. So that was a profitable lay if you took it. I put forward a 5/1 or 6/1 horse each way. The winner was at odds of 9/2 – oh so close – and second was a 6/1 horse, so you would have got a return following this advice.
In the 2.25 Cheltenham I put up a 6/1 or 13/2 odds horse each way. I did not name the horse, just went with the odds. Annacotty won at 13/2 and was the only qualifier in that race.
I pointed to Alan King doing well in the 3.00 Cheltenham and his Yanworth won, alas at only 2/1. His previous winners were 12/1 and 16/1 horses.
The 3.35 Cheltenham I opted for a 5/2, 11/4 or 3/1 horse. There was a qualifier but he finished out of the places.
In the 4.10 Cheltenham, I mentioned no winner at 7/1. The winner on this occasion? 13/2. Second-placer? 13/2. Third-placer? 13/2! I mentioned an 11/2 or 6/1 horse each way. I do hope you employed some flexibility and found the winner!
Interesting, isn’t it, that I did not necessarily tip a horse? Rather I tipped by odds! And it seemed to allow us to shortlist horses in that Cheltenham meeting. This is something I am keen to continue with and will do for you for the big Cheltenham Festival itself in March.
This has the makings of another potential strategy and I’ll be checking out the past winners at www.racingpost.com for certain high-profile race meetings. The section is for members only at www.racingpost.com. I’ll report back to see if the winners flow –then it may be worth joining the members’ club.
Heavy ground lays?
What do these three horses have in common: Sutton Manor; Hard Bought; Crin Au Vent? They were all hot favourites who lost.
What else did they have in common? They all ran on heavy ground!
I am keeping record of apparent red-hot favourites, as indicated by this element of the Racing Post.
If you see a race like this, with a very strong Betting Forecast favourite and a big gap to the next horse, and that race is being run on heavy ground (alas, the example above is on good-to-soft ground, as you can see in the race title), I think you have good grounds (excuse the pun) for laying the horse. You will certainly be getting short odds.
One further element… The race has to be a Jumps race, so have ‘hurdle/chase race’ in the title.
It’s a small sample I have. Clearly though these horses are struggling in bad ground and are not backable at such short odds. So lay them!!
As ever, I’ll be keeping a record of heavy ground shorties and will tell you how they get on. Just beware in heavy ground that strong favourites are worth taking on! They are horses after all and don’t know they are odds-on shots!
I’m going to do some brain-storming regarding sniffing out odds-on shots to lay. I have some good ideas.
Here’s a few:
- Heavy ground Jumps races, as mentioned above.
- Cup matches in European countries.
- Golf odds-on favourites in the last day’s play (usually a Sunday).
- First-set winners in tennis matches where the pre-match odds were tight.
- Certain odds-on horses in the Place Only market at Betfair.
I am sure you can think of a few odds-on shots.
When laying at odds-on (i.e. under 2.00 in decimal odds) on the betting exchanges such as Betfair, I would recommend fixed-liability laying as opposed to fixed-stake laying.
Here’s the liability box at Betfair. Click on ‘Liability’ and enter the ‘Max Liability’ (the maximum amount of money you are willing to lose).
The great thing about max-liability laying is that the shorter the horse that loses, the bigger your payout. You do not even need to have a high strike rate in order to profit well long-term.
Here’s one such strategy from www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk:
This strategy produced a £311.58 pure profit from a £100 starting betting bank, risking 10% of the bank per lay as fixed liability. A 38.5% strike rate was all that was required, laying favourites in certain races at odds of 1.5 and below!
Food for thought eh? Odds-on shots are well worth your consideration for laying.
I’m off now to get brain-storming. Think odds-on, think potential lay!
Food for thought eh? Odds-on shots are well worth your consideration for laying.
I’m off now to get brain-storming. Think odds-on, think potential lay!
Have a great weekend.