BlackcatBlackkitten came in at 5/4 for those with more faith than me and my measly place only bet! Personally I only bet on 2 other horses yesterday, the lay of Jimmy Ber – a look at the live market and there were 2 horses in close proximity betting wise – add to this the fact the race was in heavy ground and was a maiden hurdle and we have enough evidence to lay and so it proved. My in running monitoring was cut short by a loss of pictures which halted the market but luckily Jimmy came 3rd.
My 2nd bet of the day was a place only bet on Jaunty Flight – he came 2nd. Towcester in soft ground – I’ll be swerving the course in future – it is unique with a tough up hill finish which left a lot of the horses struggling. A course very much for previous course and distance winners I think in future.
The dutch in the 150 Southwell came in and I was correct in leaving out Fiddling again – a poor 10th in a big field mares only event – one for the Fancy fillies laying system!
Guess what – Angola v Tunisia finished 0-0 and I watched the game – there were genuine attempts on goal which stopped me getting involved on the draw but there were also a lot of mis placed passes and dead balls which mysteriously went towards the corner flag more often than not. No doubt some conspiracy theorists filled their boots with the draw. Barcelona won a tight game against Villareal but I left it alone because of the Spanish Cup factor and possible question mark over attitude towards to game.
Lesson to learn about yesterday – yes there was loads of racing but with discipline and correct selection a profit still accrued.
CATTERICK – SOFT GROUND – PRECAUTIONARY INSPECTION
Those very words should tell you all you need to know!
320
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Starting Point, 11/4 Rightway Star, 9/2 Cool Operator, 10/1 Kandelin, 50/1 Gillie Brown, Hello My Lovely, Partly Cloudy, Timmy My Boy, 200/1 One Accord, Vie A Deux .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The promising STARTING POINT is big enough to cope with a heavy weight and, with none of his rivals firing last time, he’s hard to oppose.[AWJ]
2 horses at 500/1 and 3 at 50/1 shortens this field considerably to 4 with realistic chances ( if we can take the early prices as accurate.
Trigger words ” hard to oppose” are apparent here with Starting Point, but with 2 wins on the trot in ground I predict will be more heavy than soft, with a big weight and 2 horses at 3/1 and 5/1 I will lay Starting Point today again looking to monitor in running as is the ideal and react to anything in the horse’s running which may increase its price.
CHEPSTOW
HEAVY GROUND
In the 120 Milan de Milles stands out for me but I will not be playing because of the ground.
KEMPTON
620
Grimes faith and Compton classic can presently be dutched leaving a £3 loss on Grimes faith and a £9.50 profit on Compton – current odds 1.7 and 3 – with only one real rival in Ask Jenny the probability is we will cover the winner.
Again I stress that with a 620 kick off odds are likely to change.
820
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Confidentiality, Neardown Beauty, 5/2 One Night In Paris, 7/1 Bassinet .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Neardown Beauty looks vulnerable under a penalty back on Polytrack and the form of fellow hold-up horse Confidentiality has started to plateau out, so this may well go to ONE NIGHT IN PARIS (nap), who has a good strike-rate on sand and can make the running
Current betfair prices are
Neardown BEauty 2.72
Confidentality -3.2
One Night in Paris 4.1
For me £10 level stakes ( mine may be bigger) on these 3 leaves a loss of £2.80 on NEardown, slight profit on Confidentiality, and £10.95 profit on One Night in Paris – with Confidentiality’s winning run having peetered out ( wonder if I’ve mentioned multiple handicap winners’ winning runs ending before – oh I have!)
920 KEMPTON – I know the owner of Stargazy who has put the horse up the last twice to me and assures me he will win this evening – this is not a tip from me, I am merely passing on information from Chris ,the owner at www.kachinaracing.co.uk
WOLVERHAMPTON
the claimer in the 205 looks very interesting with Jamie Spencer on the favourite – yet again the top 2 are dutchable leaving a slight loss on Rich Kid and a profit on nearerst market rival Shepherds Warning. Maybe I wont cannot be ignored but I will! ( and probably regret it!)
Yet again the weather in the jumps meetings simply puts me off leaving 3 possbiel dutches – 2 in the evening which will be open to change with plenty of time for market forces to take effect.
FOOTY
Bayern Munich have never lost to Hansa Rostock in their last 6 matches and have scored 3 to no reply in their last 2 meetings
MUG PUNTER ACCA
1 H Rostock v B Munich (Backing B Munich @ 1.43)
2 Mgladbach v Kaiserslautern (Laying Kaiserslautern @ 8.62)
Doubles
Selections Odds* Stake Potential win
1 and 2 1.62 £100.00 £62.00
Can we assume Bayern can keep their run continuing? If so, laying Kaiserslauten away to a 4/9 shot should enhance the odds.
NOTE – ideally today the football is a leave alone – the Bundesliga is not my speciality and we have the weekend coming