Only one favourite obliged at Ayr, and concerted laying to trade would have made a great profit. In fact, this is something I tried yesterday – lay the first named in the betfair list ( may or may not be the market favourite) ,and green up at a predetermined profit or lay off for a predetermined loss. Using fairbot this is a cinch as it has a tracking green up facility.
Good 2nd for Gentle Ranger -he was at least competitive while returning stakes for each way backers
Dutch lost at Sandown but break even on Takeroc. Slight loss on Ten Down who won and was the only winner for the 3 into 1 system .Again 2 runners at Ayr and I would not have bet them in the heavy ground.
Bayern won both halves and over 2.5 goal trading was ok with a 64th minute 2nd goal allowing trading.
Southend won to exacerbate Luton’s problems. Thank you Liverpool for a bit more consistency and Torres scores again to bring home the money.
And now the bad news – loss on the day for me with Chelsea crushed by the Barnsley boys and Man Utd beaten by Portsmouth in a match they should really have walked.
This I suppose shows the value of staking plans and not putting your eggs in one basket – remember the adage – there is no such thing as a sure thing!.
The FA Cup leads me to thinking along the line of neutral bets in all remaining fixtures rather than taking an opinion on a specific team.
Mug punter acca scuppered alas, but the mug punter will be back!
A losing day for me but interesting to lay market leaders consistently in all races and trade in running to green up or create a predetermined loss if the price shortens. I will definitely try it out some more and get a strategy nailed for you. Short races are probably not worth including in this strategy – 3 milers are ideal as , in one example, a horse I laid at 4, went out to 12 in running allowing me to green up AND HE WENT ON AND WON!. On a Saturday, which you saw again was bookies benefit day, this strategy is ideal.
HEREFORD
225
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Otage De Brion, 7/4 Tampa Boy, 4/1 Maremotto, 16/1 Go Go, Heezagrey, 33/1 Pipers Legend, 50/1 Fine Edge, Son Of Samson, Sure Flame, 100/1 Come On Jim.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TAMPA BOY and Otage De Brion stand out and the former’s more fluent hurdling might well settle the issue
A 3 horse race but how to approach it?
Dutching the front 3 to level stakes leaves only a profit on Maremotto.
Naturally 2 of these 3 will lose. Backing the 2 named in Spotlight to level stakes produces a better profit and the hope is one of these 2 can overcome Maremotto.
325
God’s Token should win, but I’d like to ensure i don’t lose if he wins, while being in with a chance of a nice payout should there be a shock.
GODS TOKEN – 1.4 back for £26 stake to win £0.38
BEESNEEZ – 11 back for £5 to win £18.05
ORREZZO – 11 back for £5 to win £18.05
(at current prices)
MARKET RASEN
245
ETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Quillan Hill, 4/1 Just Shove It, 7/1 Amber Warrior, Lucinda Lamb, 8/1 Bal Birnie, Tide Slider, 14/1 Buckshaw, 25/1 Oswie, 50/1 Treefella, 66/1 Rhine Rewler,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks easier than the race QUILLAN HILL won here last weekend and he can follow up under a penalty. Just Shove It is an interesting newcomer while Lucinda Lamb should not be ignored receiving plenty of weigh
Possible price gapper. Spotlight says “will be very hard to beat” with a reproduction of latest run. No ground concerns, top RPR, postdata selection, price gap enhanced in the live market. Runs under a penalty this time and worthy of support I think – personally I will monitor.
415
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Coq Hardi, 11/2 Willies Way, 7/1 Keen Warrior, 12/1 Aces Four, Mr Shambles, 14/1 Michaels Dream, 16/1 Wicked Nice Fella, 33/1 Cottam Grange.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Although he is having his first run over this trip, COQ HARDI, who confirmed previous promise when stolling home at Bangor last time, is going to take all the beating with just a 7lb penalty. Willies Way, from the in-form Sue Smith yard, looks his main threat
THe straight 8 here – can we approach from each way betting? Keen warrior ,just before the double figure horses, is the obvious candidate. BUT . why is Aces Four now 4/1 in the early market – possible stable gamble and possible expectation of a good run and worth supporting I think
Naas looks a good card with which to lay the top named in the Betfair market and trade in running, either for a predetermined loss, or if the price rises, for a green up screen
305 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Theatre Diva, 2/1 Harringay, 4/1 Marvellous Dream, 10/1 Colline De Fleurs, 12/1 Ellway Prospect .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Theatre Diva is preferred to Marvellous Dream of the penalised pair but this could be the day that HARRINGAY finally delivers over fences, as for once both the ground – granted no significant rain – and trip look right
3 non runners here leaving a 2 horse race and Harringay at 1/3 is against Ellway Prospect, the 12/1 chance.
1.33 is reasonable enough. Of course you can go for the 3/1 shot and monitor in running.
335
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Theatre Dance, 3/1 Go Amwell, 4/1 Plein Pouvoir, 10/1 Tisfreetdream, 25/1 Kentford Mist, 33/1 Anacrusis, 100/1 Themanfrommayo, 200/1 Archenemee, Impero, Overton Lad .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There was plenty to like about the Fontwell win of THEATRE DANCE (nap) last month and he’ll find this company somewhat easier than in the Sidney Banks at Huntingdon last time.[GW]
Tisfreetdream each way here with Plein Pouvoir a non runner
3 into 1
2 on heavy at Ayr and anybody who saw the course on Friday would not have entertained betting at Ayr
Ten Down was the only winner
305 Warwick harringay
325 Hereford Gods Token
505 Warwick Risk assessor
Harringay appears in a 2 horse race so the odds are too short. Gods Token is too short and Risk assessor appears in a 2 horse race
FOOTYLesson from yesterday – FA CUP matches, if looked as as betting mediums, could be better approached with a neutral bet
First game of interest is Celtic’s away to Aberdeen. Celtic’s last 2 games away have been not too confident for backers – last minute at St Mirren and 2nd half goals against Hibs.
BUT this is the Scottish Cup -the last head to head was 5-1 to Celtic. If we look at Rangers performance against Aberdeen, 3-1 may give us a way into today’s match.
Half time/ Full time Celtic/Celtic ; Draw/Celtic ;Draw /Draw (cup game!) I will break even this time on the DRaw/Draw
Boro match today and an under 2.5 goal trade looks a good angle in . .Leaving a neutral bet like this looks the best option with all the surprises in the FA Cup.
Everton at 6/5 look big against Sunderland and worthy of support to trade off if Everton score the first goal
Hibs held Celtic til half time at their place but are away to Rangers in the Scottish Cup. I expect Rangers to win by 1 or 2.
RAngers -1.5 goves us a nice payout if they win by 2, and a break even if they win by 1
Remember these are Cup games ,so if you want to leave these Scottish games alone, please do (more surprises?)
Back Sevilla before the game and lay off if they score first ( which they should do – they are at home)
MUG PUNTER ACCA
1 Aberdeen v Celtic (Laying Aberdeen @ 8.08)
2 Rangers v Hibernian (Laying Hibernian @ 14.5)
3 Sunderland v Everton (Laying Sunderland @ 3.78)
4 Sevilla v Levante (Backing Sevilla @ 1.23)
5 Wigan v Arsenal (Laying Wigan @ 8.62)
5-Folds
Selections Odds* Stake Potential win
1,2,3,4 and 5 2.32 £100.00 £132.00
The Sunderland game will be the problem game here as Sunderland MUST win. Everton too, will regain 4th if they win.
Interesting that Bet365 have chalked up Newcastle United to win the Championship next season. This may be worth a shilling – first hurdle – Newcastle to get relegated.