Asked a WRWM reader.
‘Football, greyhounds, or horses, I don’t mind!’
In order to answer this reader, I had to inform him that any ‘good’ laying system will have, as its foundation, a good history of calendar year profits! ( For the uninitiated, layers want their horse, team, player chosen to LOSE!!)
I pointed to my own weird and wonderful lay systems whose details I share at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk
358 – lay the favourite in certain races if its odds are a certain price, and to a specialist lay staking plan called the Lay 1-4 staking plan.
Price Gapper 5+ – Lay apparent sure things again using the above specialist staking plan.
Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market – self explanatory.
These 3 lay systems encapsulate the wide variety of ways that you can successfully lay, and all 3 have specific characteristics:
- We lay in narrow niches. We target special circumstances. This could be a key component to your laying success. Do you know any niches where the favourite ( it doesn’t always have to be a favourite) could lose?
- Staking Plan. The staking plan you select is the key to your laying success. We have the ‘liability’ issue to factor in. Liability is the amount of money you will pay out if your layed selection has the temerity to wins its race/match! Liability must be considered . Take the Price Gapper 5+ strategy above. Yes, selections may have a higher chance of winning their races ( and of course we don’t want that!) but these sure things will keep liability low and, with their specialist staking plan, really boost the betting bank when the sure thing loses ( and they do!!) . There are a multitude of staking plans to suit your laying needs from fixed stake, fixed liability, Fibonacci staking, and the famed Maria Staking Plan. The latter can open up your laying world to horses/ outcomes at maximum odds of 11 decimal. The staking plan has within its cogs an ability to control that all-important liability.
- A good past record. This latter element of course takes time, unless you use specialist form software such as proformracing.com, or you manually back test horse racing, greyhound or football lay ideas.
Here are some further factors you may want to consider when looking for a lay system:
- Competition
Does your lay have enough competition to help you get it beaten. For example, I am recording, currently, the performance of the favourite in the biggest field of the day. Why? Competition! Said favourite will have a minimum of 15 other horses to beat in order to win! Nice! Take this to the world of football, and you could, for instance, lay a specific correct score. On Betfair , this is a 19 ‘runner’ event..
The obvious obstacles arrive during the National Hunt season of course, in the form of hurdles and chase fences. Add in a long distance of 3 miles +, and could we start to see vulnerable favourites?
- Debutants
Any horse, dog, football team , who are new to something could be vulnerable . In the horse world, look to 2 year old debutants. How about horses running on the specialist All-weather race courses for the first time? Dogs? Well, dogs are not my speciality but how about a simple angle like a dog who has never won out of a specific trap ( info freely available at www.racingpost.com). And football wise? How about a side who has never beaten its opponent before? Or a side debuting in the Champions League?
- Stats
There are more stats that you can shake a stick at, ( and there’s probably a stat out there regarding shaking sticks). Your laying might employ a statistical bent. Statistically, for example, laying favourites in 16 runner races has made a good profit. From a football perspective, you could use our old pal www.soccerstats.com to arm yourself with the stats and patterns for certain teams that you could oppose.
- Inplay laying.
I wonder if this idea ever crossed the mind of the WRWM reader when he contacted me. I suspect he was after a set and forget system. I like laying in play, particularly as it applies to football. The underdog scores first. There’s a 0-0 late on in a game where you didn’t expect a 0-0. What can you do? Well, don’t just sit there, take action! In horse racing, laying the field will be something familiar to some, as with dobbing ( pleae google dobbing – there is a wealth of information on the topic).
So, as you can see, there is no simple answer I can give to a WRWM reader who asks if I have a lay system. It’s up to the reader what he wants. What fits in with his life. But I hope I have opened your eyes to the opportunities available to the layer.
I can help you in the stats department, at least from a horse racing perspective and do post articles on horse racing stats at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk if you are interested. Inplay layers, for football, might want to test drive www.delayreacttrade.com where inplay betting is my speciality there.