The Cheltenham Festival begins 16th March and is a disappointment already. The Festival usually covers my birthday on 13th March. I have written a strongly worded letter to the Cheltenham Racing Committee to make them aware of this small rick in scheduling in 2021.

Those of you who read the What Really Wins Money newsletter will have the February Cheltenham Special to hand, with the excellent analysis of Andrew David, the Statman’s look at creating a shortlist for every race out of previous winner trends, the formbook look at 10 year performance of 1st, 2nd and 3rd favourites at the Festival .

How are you going to play? Some opt for past winner trends. There are some excellent free resources to help you there such as www.thestatsdontlie.com , a website I have mentioned earlier.

They provide a list of the last 10 or so winners as well as the trends of those winners in a particular race.

For example, in the Supreme Novices Hurdle, you can, at a glance, see that the head of the market is where it’s at. 3 consecutive 3rd favourites have won the last 3 years. 7 of the last 8 winners have been from the top 3 in the betting market.

Already in this race, you’d be inclined to follow the market wouldn’t you?

In the Close Brothers Mares Hurdle, for instance, 7 of the last 12 winners have been favourite, 11 of the last 12 winners come from the first 3 in the betting and Willie Mullins won 7 of the last 10 but has only won 1 of the last 4 suggesting a possible changing of the guard for trainers.

All of this is gleaned from www.thestatsdontlie.com and can give you an immediate look at those races where the market gets it right. Why not target those races where the market does not get it right so you can have a speculative each-way play?

Whatever you do, Cheltenham is with us soon, enjoy!