All eyes, well my eyes anyway, on Cheltenham - What Really Wins Money

This week I have been mostly….reading all things Cheltenham. It’s newsletter week for me here at What Really Wins Money Towers, and the February edition of the newsletter has been traditionally devoted to the Cheltenham Festival, so if you wanted to trial WRWM, and you like the Cheltenham Festival, well February’s newsletter would not be a bad time to take a look.

We take a 2 pronged approach usually in February’s newsletter.

The first prong is to take a traditional form reading look at the races. That is left in the capable hands of the betting doctor , Andrew David.

The second prong is the ‘process of elimination’ approach put forth by the Statman. Here’s a look at the Ryanair Chase for example.

The Ryanair Chase

Remove horses from the final declaration list as follows:

  1. Completed but failed to finish in the first six last time out 100%
  2. Aged eleven or above 100%
  3. Hasn’t had a run this season 100%
  4. Priced at the off at bigger than 20/1 100%
  5. Has had a race in the last 15 days 100%
  6. Has raced more than five times already this season 100%
  7. Not in the first three in the betting 91%
  8. Officially rated less than 155 95%
  9. Aged six 95%

Fact stat: If you are looking for a horse with a chance of a place 12 have come home in the first five after running in the King George on Boxing Day, and another 12 have come out of the Ascot Chase due to be run this year on February the 20th –  PS We snagged the winner last year with Min at 2/1.

The Statman has taken these trends from the last 23 years of racing and provides a simple methodology for shortlisting horses in each race. It has been a profitable approach in past Festivals. It’s surprising how quickly you can eliminate horses and come up with a shortlist of contenders whose profile most closely matches that of past winners.

 

So, while it may be February, Cheltenham is still very firmly in mind.

Strewth mate!

And before I go, the Australian Open Grand Slam is being played. It’s an ideal time for you to do some ‘what if’ scenarios in preparation for the French Open and Wimbledon Grand Slams which will be at more accommodating times. In a recent eletter I shared my way to create value from inplay tennis. And it’s the principle I use with football. i.e. DRT

Delay, react, trade.

Here’s an example.

Here we have a 1.08 favourite losing the first set in a tie breaker. You’re going to get far better odds after that 1st set loss than you’d have ever gotten by backing this shortie at the off!  If you feel so inclined, head over to www.flashscore.com , tennis and click on odds to get a look at the pre-match odds. Look for tight matches and see whether you could have backed the strong favourite a set or 2 down and still won! It will serve you well for the summer months.

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