I thought this eletter I’d look at the performance of favourites on Boxing Day. Are all of the jockeys putting up over weight after an assault on the After Eights?
DISTANCE
You’d be nearing a 51% strike rate over the last 10 years backing favourites over 2 mile and 5 furlong races on Boxing Day, a modest 18.73 points profit to Betfair SP and 48% ROI.
No 2020 results but 5 winning favourites in the last 8 races augurs well.
COURSE
Layers sharpen your knives at Leopardstown and Huntingdon on Boxing Day. The Favourites seem to have had a bit too much Turkey.
28 points profit laying favourites at Leopardstown and a 37% ROI and at Huntingdon, 23 points profit laying favourites and a 55% ROI.
11 of the last 12 favourites at Leopardstown lost on Boxing Day!!
The last 20 favourites at Huntingdon all lost on Boxing Day but they may not have a meeting this year. We shall see!
RACE CLASSIFICATION
On Boxing Day look to Maidens favourites and European BReeders Fund race favourites ( I am guessing an Irish bent here), with 14.40 and 4.84 points profit and a 50% and 60% winning strike rate .
Chase and Handicaps are the 2 race classifications for favourite layers on Boxing Day. 27 and 22 points profit.
RUNNERS
A 12 point profit on Boxing Day laying favourites in 7 runner races. 4 of the last 5 favourites won so are we due a correction this Boxing Day?
HEADGEAR
Watch out for any favourite on Boxing Day, wearing a tongue tie, abbreviated to t in the race card ( near the horse’s name). A 27 point profit for the layer.
Horses wearing a visor when favourite have a 0-7 strike rate on Boxing Day.
TRAINERS
Poor old Nigel Twiston-Davies seems to have overdone it on the Baileys. He has a 1 winner from 13 runner Boxing Day record over the last 10 years . Watch out if he saddles a favourite, and oppose it!!
Stay in bed Nigel, and watch Die Hard , mate!
JOCKEYS
If Paddy Brennan rides a favourite on Boxing Day, watch out. He tends to leave the sherry alone and has made a profit to level stakes .
Stay in bed Brian Hughes. If he is on a favourite, lay it on Boxing Day, only 1 win in 13.
The poor Twiston-Davies must love a knees-up.
Nigel has a woeful Boxing Day record and Sam , his son, is 0-8 on favourites on Boxing Day, as is Wayne Hutchinson.
WEIGHT
A standout 43 points profit is made laying favourites when they are top weight on Boxing Day, the best profit figure so far. Take note!
DISTANCE TRAVELLED
The nearer the better on Boxing Day. Horses travelling between 21-30 miles have turned a 29 point profit when favourite . By clicking on the course name at www.racingpost.com you can access the distance travelled in the SIGNPOSTS section.
A combined 54 point profit laying favourites who had to travel 76-125 miles.
Conclusions
Top weights really stand out at all Boxing Day meetings when favourite. They need to be layed!
The Twiston-Davies seem to love Christmas because they are pants on Boxing Day when they train, or ride, a favourite.
Look out for horses not travelling too far to the track, and similarly, oppose those travelling between 76-125 miles when favourite.
Leopardstown and Huntingdon are favourite layers’ dreams, so far, on Boxing Day.