I have been offering my Cheltenham thoughts on Twitter @whatreallywins and started day one with three second-placers and a third place. I stoutly refused to back an odds-on shot!
Wednesday saw my first winner in Rivage D’or at odds of 24 Betfair SP, and yesterday ended with a winner at 9/1 in Package. I won’t be able to do any Twittering today, alas, as my girlfriend has decided to take me away for my birthday.
Yes, Friday the 13th. Sums me up really. I was born on Friday the 13th as well! It will be a rare weekend off for me as we enjoy a nice break, because I am officially ‘fecking old’.
This week has been excellent for followers of my each way selections at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk. Since 7 March, we’ve had winners at 13, 16.96, 13.5, 4.14, and a winner at 4.9, not to mention some big-priced second-placers at Betfair SP of 40 and 70. I was just daydreaming that one of those nabbed first spot! I’ll be updating the results for all of my other Home-Grown strategies in the March edition of What Really Wins Money, which is under construction as I write.
Another strategy I am pleased with, and whose selections I provide for free, is called my ‘Bankers or Blowouts’. Quite simply, these are football teams who have an outstanding chance of winning.
Since I went live in November 2014, and betting to a nominal 1/3 of the original betting bank (in this case, £33 from a £ 100 starting betting bank), the bank has risen to £722 as of yesterday. Not too shabby if you take into account that the odds are so short they make Ronnie Corbett look tall.
I modelled this aggressive staking plan from www.soccerstreaks.com. By the way, they have a new product on the market called Draw Day Demolition and already I am concerned with this service.
After a disastrous start, they have shelved their original rules and begun with a whole new set of rules in the desperate hope that they can glean some kind of a profit from a service which is obviously not ready for market. It’s a lesson for you too. If a product is being marketed after only half a year’s worth of results, how much confidence should you have that half a year is representative?
But hey, in this betting products world, anything goes, right?
More about this and other new services in next month’s edition of What Really Wins Money. If you are a member, please do take a look at the website. Some of the free tips are well worth following and I have more ideas up my sleeve, which will be added to the website soon.
Back to the Bankers and Blowouts. I think I’ll do an odds-on ‘cheat sheet’ for March’s newsletter. This form of betting is appealing because you can normally be in profit instantly and then have a steady run of consistent profit, as I have had. It is a nice way to dip your toe into the world of betting. From a £ 100, the lowest my betting bank reached when following these bankers or blowout bets was £81. It soon bounced back into profit.
Day Four – Friday 13 March 2015
130pm Triumph Hurdle
1) English trained horses have held sway overall, even though the Irish have won the last two renewals (8/10)
2) No surprise to see the top trainers monopolising – Nicholls (2), Henderson (2), King (2) and Hobbs (1) – (7/10)
3) A good run last time out is imperative with 10/10 in the first three – winners are the ones to use to cut things down though (7/10)
4) Opposing the favourite would have made you good money over the years with just the one winner in ten (9/10)
5) That said, outsiders don’t do that well so look for anything at 10/1 or below and your chances increase (9/10)
6) Those ranked highly on official ratings (in the top five) do well enough, though there have been plenty enough shocks as well (6/10)
7) A sensible gap between the last race and this one has been an advantage over the years, preferably 30 days or more (7/10)
8) No ladies or horses again please – all renewals have been won by geldings (10/10)
9) Too much experience could be a bad thing – look for a horse with between one and three runs over hurdles if you want to reduce your list further (8/10)
320pm Cheltenham Gold Cup
1) No horse wearing headgear has won a Gold Cup in the last ten years (10/10)
2) The betting is more informative than I expected – look for a horse priced at 8/1 or less (9/10)
3) English-trained runners do better than Irish trained runners (7/10)
4) Age-wise seven-to-nine-year-olds are the ones to seriously consider (9/10)
5) Favourites and second-favourites account for more winners than in any race I have assessed so far (6/10)
6) Also look for horses with ten or less career outings over fences (perhaps surprisingly) (8/10)
7) Add horses who won or placed in the first three last time out (8/10) with winners your first port of call (7/10)
8) The first three in the official ratings for my final cut (7/10)
4pm Cheltenham Foxhunter Chase
1) Look for an eight or nine-year-old to keep the stats on your side here (7/10)
2) Ten or more races over fences (including point to points labelled PTP on the form) – (6/10)
3) In the top-ten on official ratings (8/10)
4) Ran within the last 40 days (7/10)
5) A gelding (no horses or mares) – (10/10)
6) No head gear (8/10)
7) Finished in the first three last time out (7/10)
I’m off now to grow old gracefully. Grecian 2000 – check. False gnashers – check. Moaning about the youth of today – check. Senior moments – check! Have a great weekend!