Christmas favourites? No I’m not talking about those wonderful TV programmes such as Noel Edmund’s Dreary Christmas House Party or the absolutely hilarious (where is my sarcasm emoji?) James Corden‘s Christmas Specials.
The real Christmas favourites are the horse racing favourites running at the meetings on the 26th and 27th December.
And as a special treat for the festive period, I’ve crunched the numbers over the last 10 years: looking at how horse racing favourites get on at each horse racing meeting on the 26th December and 27th December.
And here are my findings. Results are presents to Betfair SP for the backers and simple level stakes for the layers.
26th December
Sedgefield
Only 2 favourites have won (in 11 outings) over 2 miles and 3 furlong races.
There have been only 7 winning favourites in 31 handicap races at Sedgefield on Boxing Day.
There have been 6 consecutive losing favourites in 8 runner races.
Wetherby
Get yer laying boots on? There has been only 1 win in 7 races over 2 miles at Wetherby’s Boxing Day meetings.
You’d have made 6 points profit laying favourites in handicaps each Boxing day.
For the backers, there is a 50% strike rate backing favourites in 9 runner races, with 3 consecutive winners.
There have been no winning favourites in 8 10 and 14 runner races.
Huntingdon
Straight off the bat, there has been a 15 points profit laying favourites to Betfair SP without any specific criteria.
2 mile 3 furlongs and 2 mile 5 furlong races have seen a 5.8 points profit over each distance laying the favourites.
Market Rasen
10 points profit laying favourites on Boxing Day historically.
But if you fancy backing, then you’d have made 8 points profit by backing favourites in 2 mile races.
But…there are 8.55 points profit laying favourites in 2 miles and 1 furlong races. Interesting.
Laying the favourites in handicap, hurdle and novice races has turned a 9.7, 7 and 7 points profit.
There have been no winning favourites in 8,12,13 runner races at Market Rasen on Boxing Day. Layers could generate some important Mince Pie funds here?
Fontwell
There have been 4 winners in 5 races over 2 miles and 1 furlongs at Fontwell on Boxing Day.
Fontwell on Boxing Day looks like a backer’s course. 11 points profit made backing favourites in 2miles 1 furlongs, 2 mile 4 furlongs and 3 miles and 2 furlong races.
Handicap and chase races have seen favourite backers profit by 7.8 and 4.7 points profit.
We saw a 60% strike rate historically backing favourites in 6 runner races.
Watch out for the trainer Gary Moore. 3 consecutive wins for him when his horses are favourites.
Wincanton
A 6.4 point profit laying favourites over all suggests our thought process at Wincanton on Boxing Day.
There have been 5 winners in 7 races over 2 miles and 6 furlongs and 8.4 points profit laying favourites over 3 miles and 1 furlongs.
There is a huge contrast in fortune at Wincanton for favourite backers in hurdles races (9.4 points profit) and 12 points profit…..for layers in Chase races.
Kempton
Boxing Day at Kempton suits the layers. 11 points profit laying favourites in 7 and 14 runner races.
Wolverhampton
Very little to get our teeth into at Wolves on Boxing Day bar to relay the 8 points profit backing favourites in 7 and 8 runner races.
Let’s move onto the 27th December 2019
Chepstow
Chepstow is the Coral Welsh National course. Overall, 8.2 points profit has been made backing favourites in chase and handicap races.
Backing favourites in 20 runner races has seen a 5 points profit.
Kempton Xmas festival
The 27th December Kempton meeting has been a punter’s pal.
- Backing all favourites over the last 10 years turned a 10 point profit.
- 5 points profit backing favourites in 3 mile races at Kempton on the 27th December.
- Hurdles and Mares races might be worthy of your attention. Backing these favourites turned an 11.9 and 10.72 points profit.
- 8 and 10 runner races saw favourite backers profit by 8.8 and 6.3 points profit.
Nicky Henderson looks to be the trainer to follow at Kempton when his horses are favourites. 9.39 points profit.
I do know that Boxing day and the 27th December are traditionally days to digest, but if the horse racing appeals to you.
These stats are specific to the day and the meeting, so there are no absolutely eye-catching profit figures but I think there are noticeable trends.
I hope these stats will help you to know when to back a favourite you fancy or when to get your laying boots on.
Here’s a list of the stats that caught my eye…
Boxing Day Sedgefield
There have been only 7 winning favourites in 31 handicap races at Sedgefield on Boxing Day.
There have been 6 consecutive losing favourites in 8 runner races.
Boxing Day Wetherby
For the backers, there is a 50% strike rate backing favourites in 9 runner races, with 3 consecutive winners.
There have been no winning favourites in 8, 10 ,and 14 runner races.
Boxing Day Market Rasen
There have been no winning favourites in 8,12,13 runner races at Market Rasen on Boxing Day.
Boxing Day Fontwell
A course that embraces favourite backers. Watch out for Gary Moore horses when they are favourites .
Boxing Day Wincanton
There have been 5 winners in 7 races over 2 miles and 6 furlongs.
Favourite backers look to hurdles and avoid the chases .
27th December Kempton
Clearly a course for favourite backers.
Nicky Henderson has done well when his horses are favourites.
It only remains for me to say Happy Xmas and a Happy New Year.
I am off now to sink a bottle of Whiskey in order to find a way to tolerate the sight of James Corden on my Christmas TV screen.
Have a great Christmas.