With the US Open and football’s International Break upon us, I thought I would plunder the vaults of www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk and pick out two articles for you which are perfectly suited to these two events. The first article shows you how you can profit from the very short-priced teams. There is no need to immediately dismiss these teams.
The second article in on how to trade tennis matches. Followers of www.drt.club get my free tennis trades during the US Open. This article will help you research matches and trade them.
The International Break
It’s simple really. Go to the football coupon at www.betfair.com and take note of really short-priced selections.
Here’s an example of the real ‘shorties’ (as I call them), from this weekend’s International football coupon…
5.00 p.m. – Czech Republic U21 v Malta U21 – 1.07 Czech Republic.?
Do not dismiss these short-priced teams who are unbackable in the Match Odds market.
- Think goals.
- Think correct scores.
- Think wins to nil.
Look at yesterday’s matches: Israel were 1.08-shots against Andorra and won 4-0. Saudi Arabia were 1.05 shots against Timor Leste and won 7-0.
You see the pattern? Turn these shorties into a good-priced bet by looking at a Goals bet or a Correct Score to Nil bet.
You could include these matches in Goals accumulators or Correct Score permutations. Here’s an article I wrote some time ago on Correct Score permutations – it is perfectly suited to the International Break and can produce a massive return…
How to exploit these correct scores for potential huge returns
Try out the following permutations once you have determined a likely correct score based upon these selection processes (and the assumption that these short-priced international teams will win at around a 4-0 starting point).
Permutation 1: Gibraltar is playing Ireland at home. Ireland is, quite rightly, very short-odds favourites, being quoted at odds of 1.04. This signifies goals. This will be Match One. On the same day, Czech u21 play Malta u21. The Czechs are quoted as 1.06 shots. Again, this signifies goals. This will be Match Two.
- Match One: 0-3, 0-4, 0-5, 0-6, 0-7
- Match Two: 3-0, 5-0, 6-0, 8-0, 9-0
We write down a variation of scores which surround the 4-0 to hopefully account for any difficulties in scoring. I sometimes include one score where the minnows score a goal.
On the betting slip, we write ‘Perm five results for each match for a correct score double = 25 bets’.
If the result of both matches is contained on your betting slip, you have a winning double, and as Correct Scores tend to pay out at decent odds, we have a chance of a nice-paying double to compensate for the biggish cost of the bet.
Permutation 2: For this Correct Score permutation, we will focus predominantly on those teams and those leagues which are generally renowned for tight games and tight results. This weekend, we take our cues from the odds. Georgia host Scotland this weekend and Scotland are 2.06 favourites. Another match I hope will be tight this weekend includes Greece at home to Finland. Finland’s odds are 1.85. The next match will be Russia against Sweden with Russia 2.16 favourites.
In the hope of a tight match, we can choose three tight scorelines and hope one of the three is the final correct score.
- Match One: 0-1, 1-1, 1-2
- Match Two: 0-0, 1-1, 1-0
- Match Three: 0-0, 1-1, 1-0
Write the above on your betting slip or in your long-list fixed-odds coupon with the instructions to the bookmaker to ‘Perm 3 scorelines for each match for a winning treble = 27 bets’.
Here’s a tennis research article I wrote for the French Open which is equally as valid for the current US Open.
Here’s a quick guide on how to quickly research a player…
1) Note the match odds and the 2/0 3-0 set betting odds (in Grand Slams). Here I am researching Annika Beck v Elina Svitolina…
1.35 for the match odds tells us the market leader; 1.99 for her to win 2-0 in sets suggests she may not get a smooth passage today.
2) Note the rankings: 83rd v 21st. I would not be overtly confident in Elina Svitolina based on rankings. Tight rankings do suggest both players will win a set and that knowledge is useful because you can lay the first set winner or lay the favourite to win 2-0 sets.
3) Head-to-heads: no head-to-heads here. This can suggest an element of ‘getting to know you’ and is a negative towards the favourite. A step into the unknown…
4) Now we move onto recent form. At www.betfair.com click on ‘head to head’.
Pay attention to recent form on today’s surface (clay) and in earlier rounds of this tournament.
Make note of:
- What round these players have exited in recently and what was the score. If players keep exiting tournaments in the first round, this is a negative. If players consistently concede a set, this is a negative (Beck above has conceded a set in four consecutive matches before her last match).
- Players dropping a set but going on to win. This has happened to both of the above players in at least one of their opening French Open matches. This suggests an ‘angle in’. Lay the first set winner or lay the first set winner in the 2-0 set betting market.
- Look for tie breakers. Note Svitolina’s last match: 1-6, 7-5, 9-7. What does this tell you? She’s lucky to still be in the French Open. Any time you see 7-5 and 7-6 sets, quite simply, the sets could have been won by either player. That is a negative.
And that’s all the research I do. Sometimes I go to the ATP or WTA tour websites to check out the head-to-heads if there is a history. Has the winner won in straight sets? Or in head-to-heads, do both players consistently win a set at least?
Even with these ultra-simple research templates you can get a good tennis trading angle into this match.
My conclusions from the above? Svitolina is lucky to be at the French Open. Beck keeps dropping sets, so lay her if she wins the first set. In fact, you may like to lay the first set winner. Svitolina is too short at 1.35 odds. Lay her if she breaks first. Her odds will be shorter.
I hope you find these articles useful for this particular time.
Have a great weekend. If you are a member of What Really Wins Money, make sure you use the search facility at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk and check out articles on a whole wealth of betting topics.