Funny shaped balls… No, my girlfriend has not caught me out for a second time logging on to www.kellybrook.com: this time I am talking about the Six Nations which begins today with Wales odds-on to beat Eng-er-land.
Odds of 1.59 for Wales is a tad short for me in a game such as rugby, which is so intense. I am convinced that we will see Wales’ odds rise at some point during this match. Yes folks, after I introduced you to trading and the Australian Open tennis, well, here’s trading in another sport.
Trading is all about finding ‘angles in’, or entry points and exit points for your trade. If I feel that Wales’ odds are far too short pre-match, then I can lay Wales at odds of 1.59. My hope, in play, is for England to provide stubborn resistance, better yet, take the lead at some point in the match.
This will increase Wales’ odds and we can ‘trade out’ by effectively buying at 1.59 and selling off at a higher price during the match.
Let’s look at some other Six Nations markets which are tradeable (and if you want to know about sports trading at the betting exchanges, then click here).
The Grand Slam market
The Grand Slam occurs simply when one team beats all others during the Six Nations. The odds are 1.76 currently for there to be no winner of the Grand Slam. If you think a team will win their first two Six Nations matches, these odds might rise. Of course, the field will be reduced to three teams in competition for the Grand Slam once the first round of matches is over.
In sports trading, you see, we only need the merest hint that something might happen in order for that to affect the price. The fact that a team may win their opening two matches might send signs of nervousness to the No Winner market and we will see what…? Yes, we will see the price rise.
By laying this market pre-tournament, and backing again if, hopefully, one team wins their first two matches, we may see another tradeable opportunity.
Both Ireland and France play apparent minnows in Italy and Scotland, and they are expected to win those matches. They are backable in the Grand Slam market at odds of 6.6 and 15.5 respectively. The problem is that Ireland meet France in the next match, so one of these two teams will not win the Grand Slam. Who’s your money on?
The Outright Winner market
In the Outright Winner market at www.betfair.com, Ireland are 2.96 favourites, England second-favourites at 3.4, and Wales third-favourites at odds of 4. Laying one of these three teams effectively ensures we are backing the rest. I would naturally lay the shortest-priced team (Ireland), but lay them in the Outright Winner market after they have (presumably) beaten Italy – as their odds should be shorter in this market.
The Wooden Spoon market
My other favourite market is the Wooden Spoon market. Italy are warm 1.3 favourites to take the Wooden Spoon. However, the value must be in Scotland surely, at 5.2 on Betfair (better yet, I would venture at a bookmaker as the Betfair market is illiquid).
Italy have been creeping closer to competitiveness in recent Six Nations and should not be dismissed so readily as being the worst team in the tournament.
Welcome to the world of tournament trading!
I have given you ideas in previous eletters regarding how to exploit trading in golf tournaments (laying the leader after day one in a competitive golf tournament).
Tournament trading can be employed in tennis, golf, heck even Formula 1. A variation of the ‘tournament trading’ ethos can be found in the Premiership Winner market before the season begins.
Oh, and there’s yet another variation, via the Ante-Post markets for the Cheltenham festival. Find a hot-pot and hope that you secure bigger odds by backing the horse early – sometimes months before the festival – and hope you can lay off before the race is even run!
If you want the lowdown on March’s Cheltenham Festival, then why not sign up in time for the March edition of What Really Wins Money. We dedicate this edition solely to Cheltenham. There’s unique statistical angles and insights to help you profit.
For those already members of What Really Wins Money, well you’ve been profiting from my football banker bets. (Note – having just bragged about it, the betting gods will have taken note and ensure I go on a very long losing run now!!)
I would recommend banker bets to you. I have spoken about them before and they make a good entry point for you into the world of betting, if you want your betting bank to have a greater chance of moving into profit immediately.
I am toying with staking plans still, but need a larger sample of bets in which to come to conclusions. I’ll keep you informed.
I’m off now to browse www.kellybrook.com using Google’s incognito browser. Surely my girlfriend can’t find out that way, can she?
Have a great weekend.