September signals jumps - What Really Wins Money

It’s that time of year where attentions turn to the National Hunt  ( Jumps) racing.   There are plenty of angles to be had , and I will be looking over these in the coming eletters. I know I have mentioned 3rd favourites in Bumpers before, but now is a good time to remind you of this strong potential angle this coming season.

Below, I recount a recent article I wrote for What Really Wins Money specifically on this point. I am sure you will agree with me that this angle needs further investigation!

I thought this month we could look at a Jumps meeting race that is not a jumps race.

These are National Hunt FlatRaces, a.k.a. Bumpers.

These are unique races which tend to be run as the last race on a Jumps race card.

Are there any profitable angles when focusing on favourites in these Bumper races?

All favourites in the last 10 years

The bare stats suggest that Laying favourites is the key profitable angle: 224 points profit Laying all favourites in National Hunt Flat races (Bumpers).

Class of Race

A focus on Class 5 and Class 6 races saw 123 and 72 points profit for the Layer.

Race Distance

113 points profit Laying favourites in 2 mile races.

Top Weights

110 points Laying top weighted favourites in bumper races.

I thought that I would widen the scope to 2nd favourites and 3rd favourites.

2nd Favourites

Laying all 2nd favourites made a 226-point profit. So, again, Laying is the way to attack these 2nd favourites.

Class of Race

155 points profit was made Laying 2nd favourites in Class 5 races.

Distance

210 points Laying 2nd favourites in 2 mile races.

DSLR (days since last run)

Laying 2nd favourites coming off a 0-7 day absence made a 195-point profit.

So, 1st and 2nd favourites bias towards Laying. Backers might want to focus on 3rd favourites in National Hunt Flat races.

3rd Favourites

An eye-catching 462 points profit has been made Backing 3rd favourites in Bumpers over the last 10 years. This is impressive given the relatively low volume of races per year.

Class of Race

Class 5 races have seen a 314-point profit Backing 3rd favourites in bumpers.

Distance

Two mile races have been a Layer’s dream for 1st and 2nd favourites but Backers look again to third favourites: 267 points.

DSLR

Backing 3rd favourites coming off the back of 0-7 days since their last run turned a 334-point profit.

Weight Rank

Top weights in Bumpers are Backable… when they are 3rd favourites. 270 points profit.

Conclusions

There is a profit to be had Laying favourites and 2nd favourites in Bumpers, but you Backers might want to focus on 3rd favourites. Some impressive profit figures. I have cherry-picked the most eye-catching profits. And remember, there tends to be just the one Bumper race per Jumps meeting, so there is not a huge volume of these races. I am aware of the some-time All-Weather meetings that are devoted solely to National Hunt Flat races, but these are the exception.

What stands out for me?

  • 462 points Backing 3rd favourites in National Hunt Flat races with no filters. Absolutely stand out.
  • 334 points Backing 3rd favourites in National Hunt Flat races coming off the back of a 0-7-day absence. Fresh 3rd favourites to be favoured.