A fascinating eletter sent by the Betting Doctor Andrew David last week. I enjoyed reading it, and also received a detailed analysis from a reader,apt surname Mr. Wiseman. Andrew, with Mr. Wiseman’s permission, will be posting his analysis next time he writes his eletter.

It’s Irish Guineas weekend , the 2000 Guineas is run on Saturday and the 1000 Guineas is run on Sunday.

Irish 2000 Guineas

Hold the Front Pages. Call the Cops. Something ain’t right here! Aiden O’Brien has not won the 2000 Guineas for the last 3 years.  He has won 5 of the last 10 runnings of the race though.

In 4 of the last 7 runnings, the winner has come from stall 1 or 2.

The Punter’s favourite jockey has been Shane Foley, with 4 runs , 1 win and 1 place and a profit of 22 points for the win and 12 points each-way.

The most profitable trainer is KJ Condon with 1 run, 1 win and a 16 points profit. Not a stat to take to the bank though.

Here are the finishing positions of the favourites ( oldest to latest) – 3,1,11,2,(1,2),2,1,2,1,1,2,10,8,1,1,2,1,6,(2,5),1

Angles? If you think Aiden O’Brien’s recent quietness suggests a keen want to win, then Battleground, Van Gogh and Wembley are all backable each-way ( this is actually a great technique What Really Wins Money’s Patriarch employed – trainers with multiple entries often see the bigger prices winning and placing).

The fact that 2 of the last 3 winners of the 2000 Guineas were at odds of 25/1 and 16/1 could suggest a sly old each way punt on any horses at , or around, these odds pre-race.

Irish 1000 Guineas

5 wins for Aiden O’Brien in the last 10 years and 3 winners in 4 runnings recently, this trainer’s entries obviously deserve respect.

Those 3/4 winners for Aiden O’Brien were either first or second favourite.

The most profitable jockeys for the punter were Seamie Heffernan with 14.5 points profit and 11.6 points each way over the last 10 years and Martin Harley with 11 points profit and 6.2 points each-way.

Outsiders don’t tend to win the 1000 guineas. 20/20 of the last winners were at odds of 16/1 or shorter.  8 of the last 12 winners were in the first 3 in the betting.Although there was a 16/1 winner 2 years ago.

The top 6 in the market might be the best place to focus for the winner if past trends are accurate.

Good luck! I hope these trends point you in the right direction if you want a play. The betting markets are not quite up yet as I write.