I am currently on a ‘my girlfriend is 40’ tour to see family at the moment, and we have arrived in Guernsey. (By the way, if my girlfriend asks, I told you she was 32, ok?)
I have been on uncle duty since arrival and it has been a tough assignment. It’s normally just me, a computer and some spreadsheets, so two two-year-olds and a four-year-old clambering for my time is a shock to the system.
All-Weather betting angles…
On the betting front, the All-Weather program is on the rise – there has been an at least one All-Weather race card each day this week.
What simple All-Weather ideas have I shared with you in recent eletters (and share first with readers of What Really Wins Money)?
Look at laying handicap top weights on the All-Weather. Long-term this should be a profitable strategy if laying qualifying bets under the odds of 10. And when I say top weights, I mean a single top weight. (And when I say long-term, I mean long-term!).
Boxing Shadows, in the above example (click to enlarge, then hit back to return to this page), is out on his own as a top weight in a handicap on the All-Weather (venues include Wolverhampton, Lingfield, Kempton and Southwell). We should see a long-term profit here.
Look also at laying penalised horses on the All-Weather. These horses largely appear in handicap races and are noticeable by a ‘6x’ or ‘9x’ or ‘12x’ next to their name.
Take a look at Spinning cobblers above. He would qualify.
I’ll be updating performance in the last edition of What Really Wins Money for 2014.
Try these sequential football betting angles…
November is a great time in the football season for us punters.
Why is that? Well, we are about a third of the way through this new season and patterns and sequences start to emerge.
Keep an eye out for these sequences because you can profit from them. Head on over to www.soccerstats.com, for instance, and click on ‘EN’ to bring up the Premiership. Now click on ‘Aston Villa’ (Villains, you can look away if this is too painful for you).
What do you see? You see an Aston Villa currently in a shocking sequence of six matches without a win – in fact, a six-match losing streak.
And do you see another sequence? Aston Villa went five matches without scoring a goal until they scored in their last match.
Quite simply, sequences end. Aston Villa will draw or win a match, and soon. The longer the sequence, the nearer we are to said sequence ending. Where are Aston Villa likely to be at their strongest? At home, against a bottom-five side perhaps? Or look at head-to-heads in upcoming matches and look for teams where Aston Villa have a good record.
Chelsea will lose a match this season. A look at their last three results – 1-1, 2-1, 2-1 – shows us that they are winning tough. So look for Chelsea vulnerability. Where will that occur? I would suggest away from home against a top-four side. Liverpool cannot harm them this weekend, can they?
Manchester United have gone three matches without a win. That will end at some point (although, I personally hope not).
West Brom are on a two-match 2-2 sequence. It would be such an anomaly wouldn’t it, for them to have a third 2-2 draw at home. How to exploit that? Well, if the match happens to be 2-2 during their home game against Newcastle, lay the draw. Or perhaps lay the draw for this weekend?
Burnley have not won a match this season. They will win a match this season, and are likely to do so playing at home against bottom-five sides (they have drawn three matches against bottom-five sides, so there is some slight hope).
Mgladbach are unbeaten this season in the Bundesliga. Now you’d expect Bayern Munich to be unbeaten, yes, but Mgladbach? They will lose a match eventually, so stick them in your notebook. They are away to Dortmund. A glimmer of hope for a first defeat?
As you can see, there are sequences everywhere in football. These are just ‘result’ sequences. There are also clean-sheet sequences. For example, Barcelona went eight matches without conceding, and then, lo and behold, they conceded in their last two matches.
By the way, Barcelona are on a two-match losing sequence. That will end, although there is little in the way of value in their weekend match away at Almeria… unless Barcelona are losing 1-0 in the 90th minute! Lay Almeria, then!
There are Both Teams to Score sequences, Over/Under 2.5 Goals sequences, Halftime 0-0 sequences, Halftime/Fulltime result sequences, so do pay attention to sequences and remember the ‘goalden’ rule: the longer the sequence, the nearer it is to ending.
There are some great online resources for sussing out sequences…
http://weekendfootball.co.uk/analysis/draw-sequences.asp shows draw sequences, as well as win and loss sequences.
http://stats.football.co.uk/team_sequences/english_leagues/index.shtml has its very own section dedicated to sequences.
If you want to go European, then www.soccerstats.com streaks and sequences offer an at-a-glance look at the strongest sequences out there (remembering, the longer the sequence the nearer it is to ending).
If you want to ask some questions about sequencing, get in touch with me.
I’ll be starting to look at the National Hunt season soon, what with Doncaster’s Flat race meeting tomorrow signaling the official end of the Flat season. I think there are some great ways to profit from the Jumps racing and will investigate these for you in eletters to come.
Crash helmet – check; a couple of whisky chasers – check… I’m just getting ready for the imminent arrival of my two nephews.
Have a great weekend!