Excellent research yesterday. I was pretty much spot on in all matches, including the odd correct score at nice odds. Today there is not much of interest. Wolves v Blackburn would be on the radar, but Wolves have French and Saunders managing them now so previous form under different management might not stick tonight.

PSG are taking on Ajaccio at 1.18 tonight at 8pm in the French league. I think this is a return from the Winter Break and we saw with Juventus and Fiorentina at similarly short odds, that this could be a potential slip up if PSG are not fully wound up.

HEAD TO HEADS

Sun 04/03/12 LI1 PSG 4 – 1 Ajaccio View events More info
Sun 16/10/11 LI1 Ajaccio 1 – 3 PSG View events More info
Fri 05/05/06 LI1 PSG 2 – 4 Ajaccio More info
Fri 16/12/05 LI1 Ajaccio 1 – 1 PSG More info
Fri 11/03/05 LI1 Ajaccio 1 – 0 PSG More info
Fri 22/10/04 LI1 PSG 1 – 0 Ajaccio
2 most recent and relevant head to heads see PSG do what a 1.18 shot is expected, score 3 or 4 but note no clean sheets
LEAGUE POSITION – 1st v 16th of 20
HOME TEAM – -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team – PSG
RECENT HOME FORM – DDWWWLLWWW – defeats against 4th and 10th were both 1-2. Playing 16th today and beat 17th, 18th and 19th 4-0, 2-0, 4-0 at home.
RECENT FORM OVERALL – WWLDLWLWWWW – a very sticky patch – all defeats though 2-1 and against top 10 was met with 4 consecutive wins to nil, scoring 4-4-1-3
GOAL TRENDS – 50/50 overs – 0.6 conceded on average at home is a good stat. Have conceded only 6 at home this season, 4 in the first half and 2 in the 2nd half.  End matches extremely strongly scoring 10 in last 1/2 hour. Ibra the key man of course.
PSG have not conceded, won 8 and drawn 1 against bottom 9 home and away which opens the doors for a possible win to nil
STREAKS – 8 at home without a draw 7 overall. Have scored in last 8 at home and last 16 overall.4 clean sheets
AWAY TEAM – past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team
  – Ajaccio
RECENT AWAY FORM – WLLDLDWDLL – Wins have come against 9th and 12th away. No wins against top 8, conceding 2-4-3-2-2.  2 scored draws against 5th and 7th.
RECENT OVERALL FORM – LDDLWLDDLWLL –  3 pre Xmas defeats in last 4 saw Ajaccio concede 3-3-4. Have not won home or away against top 8. All wins, bar one, have come to nil. If we expect an Ajaccio win, then it could be to nil, and the likelihood of keeping PSG out?  Yes, you’re right. Very small.
GOAL TRENDS – 60% overs away from home. Concede 2.2 on average away so don’t necessarily chip in for the overs.opponents have scored first in 80% of away matches.
STREAKS – have conceded in last 9 away
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – looks straightforward but remember this is a return from a winter break and for me an ideal time to catch shorties with their pants down – see Juve and Fiorentina latest. Form wise, PSG are capable of the 3/4 we expect from a 1.18 shot, as well as a possible clean sheet. They have clean sheeted in all home and aways against 12th and below in the league this season. Ajaccio have conceded 2+ against top sides, and not won at all against top 8.
Enhance odds with a hopeful correct score beginning 2-0, 3-0, 4-0 and hope Ajaccio don’t score, although note that in 3-1 and 4-1 wins in head to heads, Ajaccio scored. Perhaps, therefore a tasty over 4.5 goals trade? Let’s hope PSG are not rusty.
Those being ultra speculative could lay PSG at 1.18 and hope they do a “Juve and Fiorentina” and cock up their post Xmas returns at short odds.