Note we have another team literally playing at home, in Ukraine, and how much of an advantage will playing at home have?
Ukraine have drawn only 1 in their last 14 in all competitions, and that draw was a 3-3 which would have been a successful trade if not a bet.
Ukraine seem to like goals in their matches. Total goals recently in all competitions 3-4-2-4-4-2-2-2-5-1-5-4-3-2-6-3-5-4-5-2 – that’s quite consistent.
Automatically qualifying for the Euros so we cannot really see what kind of competitive form Ukraine are in against fellow Europeans.
The Ukraine have never appeared in the Euros before. At “home”, Ukraine have scored 2-3-3-2-4 against Uruguay, Bulgaria, Germany, Austria, Estonia.
Ukraine are, like England, tough to read simply because they are automatically into the Euros.
Only 2 of Sweden’s last 25 matches have been draws. Defeats against Netherlands, Hungary (90th minute winner), Denmark and England (1-0)
Sweden, in recent matches, have had a propensity to score goals – 2-4-5-1-1-5-2-3-0-0-2-3-3-2
No draw in the last 12 Euro qualifiers. 11 of those 12 Euro qualifiers were over 2.5 goals. Only 1 win in Euro 2008. 0-0 v Netherlands, 0-2 win v Greece, 1-2 loss to Spain, 2-0 loss to Russia.
Sweden tough to read because the teams they have beaten recently have been largely iffy, e.g. Bahrain, Iceland, Serbia. Fair enough, the Croatia win was great.
CONCLUSION – well these 2 teams’ previous matches have both included goals galore! Sweden have scored regularly (although the opponents were questionable in some matches, and there is a strong tendency for Sweden to score plenty at home). Ukraine have scored 2-3-3-2-4 at home in last 5. Quite a high total goal count for Ukraine too.
Key questions. How important will home advantage be? If it happens to be 0-0 for a while, I think we can lay that 0-0. Laying the Draw looks obvious. The obvious has not materialised though so far – The Dutch couldn’t score, The Irish couldn’t keep a clean sheet or a 0-0 for a long period, and this points to specific tactics for the Euro qualifiers and different tactics for the Euros proper.