I have returned now, not in time to look at japan v Iraq which is in play now.
I’ll take a look at some of the highlight matches today.
Check out the World Cup qualifying permutations here http://www.fifa.com/mm/document/tournament/competition/01/44/46/23/2014fwc_drawprocedures_europe_en.pdf
3pm – Lebanon v Iran – 1.45 away – 3 matches played for Lebanon and only 1 point for the Lebanon. Iran have played 2 matches, 1 win and 1 draw and are in current 2nd place. Lebanon look to be the whipping boys of Asia Group A. 6 defeats and 2 1-1 draws in last 8 for Lebanon. 0-1 loss to Qatar, 1-1 draw home with Uzbekistan and 3-0 away loss to Korea so far. 0-1 and 1-1 at home so far – emphasis on defending for dear life?
Iran have kept things tight in last 5 matches in all competitions, 1-0 loss, 1-0 win, 0-0, 2-2, 0-0.
Only 1 defeat in last 24 Asian World Cup qualifiers see Iran in good shape and a possible lay of the Lebanon, particularly if they score first. Worse case for iran seems to be a draw. 5 1-1 draws in last 9 away World Cup ASian qualifiers hint at potential to concede and not lose.
5pm – Czech Republic v Finland – 1.46 home – this is a friendly match so I will place priority today on the competitive world cup matches.
5pm – Jordan v Australia – 1.63 away – usually goal shy Aussies impressed last match with a comfortable away win. In Australia’s group, Japan are free and clear already on 10 points, the Aussies and Iraq have 2 points. Japan just beat Iraq so the Aussies can go clear 2nd with a win. Oman are also on 2 points.
Aussies have a game in hand though over Oman and Iraq.
1-1 draw with Iraq at home and 6-0 loss away to Japan.
2 draws for the Aussies so far this campaign. They wish that they could replicate the winning friendly form. A nice pipe opener in a 3-0 friendly win v Lebanon augurs well. Cover the draw by laying the Jordanians? I think The Aussies should eek out a win here eventually although it might be nailbiting, as competitive matches seem to be. A 1-1 draw with Japan who beat Jordan 6-0 could be the angle in to back Aussies after a 1/2 hour or so if there is no goal action.
630pm – Georgia v Spain – 1.16 away – the first match for Spain in Group I European World Cup qualification and of course it’s a must win with 1st place guaranteed. France and Georgia have already won so Spain will not want to lose ground.
4 wins and a 1-3 loss to Turkey for Georgia in their last 5. A 1-0 home win v Belarus so far. 1-0 will not be enough against Spain.
Spain have not lost a World Cup qualifier since 1993 – it could be earlier even but soccerway only goes back to 1993.
2-6-1-3-2-2-2-5 scored by Spain in away matches .
Nothing recent to go by as the World Cup comes every 4 years but 1.16 suggests Spain score 2 minimum and possibly win to nil
630pm – Romania v Andorra – 1.03 home – you know the drill . Sub 1.10 equals a shit ton of goals under normal circumstances.
7pm – Bosnia v Latvia – 1.3 home
7pm – Turkey v Estonia – 1.27 home – the Racing Post are quite sweet on the Turks, and the market agrees.
715pm – Slovakia v Liechtenstein – 1.04 home
730pm – Austria v Germany – 1.48 away – knee jerk? Quite a high price for the Germans. Is there a need to win? Yes there is, it’s early doors in the process and only 1 game played so far in Europe Group C. Austria have won their last 4 matches, all friendlies, but in this qualification they have not played yet so little for me to work with. Germany normally oblige and they were comfortable 3-0 home victors over the Faroe Islands.
Germany have won the last 6 in head to heads which makes the 1.48 quite appealing, but can we delay entry into the market here as this is almost a “derby” and germany are away from home and could meet resistance.
730pm – Hungary v Netherlands – 1.62 away – Hungary beat Andorra and Holland beat Turkey 2-0 at home which is an improvement Dutch unbeaten in 23 World cup qualifiers and 16 clean sheets in last 18. 7-6-5-4 scored by Netherlands in head to heads recently is not reflected at all in that 1.62 quote. Is this in light of the Dutch being a tad under par after their unbelievable unbeaten sequence ended.
All to play for therefore in the early part of this WC campaign.
730pm – Rep of Ireland v Oman – 1.43 home – this is a friendly.
730pm – San Marino v Montenegro – 1.05 away – San Marino tend not to score so the value prices will be found in determining the likely correct score. Montenegro scored 2 against Poland so that’ll be the starting point against San Marino. 5-0 a good starting point if you can trade that scoreline ( not that possible with “any unquoted ” at betfair. I would perhaps prefer over 5.5 goals?
730pm – Serbia v Wales – 1.54 home
730pm – Sweden v Kazakhstan – 1.09 home – 1st match in the group c for Sweden. The Kazaks have a 1-2 loss at home against Ireland – unlucky as Ireland scored late late goals. Not much to go on here except to say that the odds suggest again over 4.5 goals and perhaps a chance on a hatrick for Ibra?
730pm – Switzerland v Albania – 1.37 home
745pm – Greece v Lithuania – 1.36 home
745pm – Italy v Malta – 1.03 home – A 2-2 away draw with Bulgaria means this is a must win for Italy. Malta lost 1-0 to armenia. 1.03 again suggests that to get value here we lump on goals . Over 5.5 goals again a starter? 4-0 a possible trading scoreline?
745pm – Poland v Moldova – 1.23 home
8pm – England v Ukraine – 1.54 home – june 2012 saw an England 1-0 win against Ukraine. I would think England will be a little nervy this evening at home, making 1.54 potentially layable as a lay to back trade in the hope this remains 0-0 for a while. The 0-5 win against Moldova was expected to be honest. This is the Ukraine’s first match in the World Cup qualifiers
8pm – France v Belarus – 1.27 home
8pm – Scotland v FYR Macedonia – 1.8 home
815pm – Portugal v Azerbaijan – 1.06 home
2am – Mexico v Costa Rica – 1.24 home
225am – Peru v Argentina – 1.62 away