Well done to Norwich. They scored the first goal and United did not score. The usual pre Champions League tinkering left United and Chelsea vulnerable. I did lay Norwich at 1.99 and backed 1-2 scoreline in the United match at 8.8. I am happy to back and lay at these odds all day as they represent value, but it was not to be on this occasion . Do note now that Chelsea have not won in 4 in the Premiership. This could make them reasonable bets next time out after the CL.
Isn’t it amazing what the need for a win does – well done Reading. Bayern had more trouble at Nurnberg. I hope this showed the value of research. Those looking at the coupon thinking Bayern are sure things would have been disappointed.
A focus largely on odds ons today in a limited coupon. Dare I remind you to watch out for teams who have up and coming European engagements mid week. They might to a United/Chelsea.
930am – CSKA Moscow v Amkar – 1.29 home
HEAD TO HEADS
A missed penalty and 2 red cards for CSKA saw them lose in July.
LEAGUE POSITION – 1st v 11th
HOME TEAM – -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team – CSKA
RECENT HOME FORM – WLWWWLWW – no draw at home. defeats against 2nd and 9th. Have beaten 12th, 13th and 15th without conceding.
RECENT FORM OVERALL – WLLWWWWWWLWWWWW – superb form this season with only 3 defeats. Have conceded 1 goal in last 3 wins. Have scored 2+ in 9 of the last 11 matches.
GOAL TRENDS – 38% overs at home. 0.75 conceded on average at home. CSKA have failed to score in only 1 match this season.
STREAKS – no draw in 15. Have scored in last 5 and conceded in last 3.
AWAY TEAM – past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Amkar Perm
RECENT AWAY FORM – LLWDLWWL – only 1 draw away was against 2nd bottom. Wins v 4th, 8th and 12th. The win against 4th was a Norwich-eque 0-1 and that cannot be discounted ( or am I being a little cautious.) Amkar did not score against 2nd and 3rd .
RECENT OVERALL FORM – LWLDWDDWLLWLWLL – no draw in 8 now emphasises CSKA’s lack of draws. Amkar have not scored in their last 3 defeats.
GOAL TRENDS – 38% overs away from home – only 3 clean sheets, 2 occured away and resulted in wins.
STREAKS – 8 overall without a draw. Have conceded in the last 4 overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – the lack of a draw is obvious. Last head to head saw Amkar win but CSKA missed a pen and got 2 men sent off 2nd half. 38% overs is a surprise especially for CSKA scoring 2+ in recent matches – it’s a good sign for them that they have a number of clean sheets. Such a small overs % signals a potential 1-0, 2-0 if we assume that CSKA will win. Amkar have not scored against 2nd and 3rd away and are laying 1st today.
1pm – Lyon v Reims – 1.42 home
HEAD TO HEADS
no head to heads suggest Reims are newcomers.
LEAGUE POSITION – 5th v 12th. They may be 5th but they’re only 1 point off top spot, so tight it is in France.
HOME TEAM – -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Lyon
RECENT HOME FORM – WWWLWW – no draw at home. Loss against 7th
RECENT FORM OVERALL – WWDWWDLDWWD – all draws 1-1 and came away against 8th, 10th, 15th and 18th.
GOAL TRENDS – Lyon have failed to score in only 1 match this season. Only 3 over 2.5 goals matches all season. Lyon have only conceded 2 goals twice this season, both at home, and winning both matches.
STREAKS – 6 at home without a draw. No defeat in 4 overall. Have scored in last 4 overall.
AWAY TEAM – past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Reims
RECENT AWAY FORM – LDDLL – no win at home. Have failed to score against top 6 away but are no pushovers. 2 1-0 losses and a 0-0. A warning sign for Lyon therefore.
RECENT OVERALL FORM – LLWDWWDWLDLL – Reims have failed to score in last 3 away matches. They have not won in last 4. All wins have come against 13th and lower at home.
GOAL TRENDS – 20% overs away from home. Average 0.4 scored away but, and this is a warning for Lyon, only 1 conceded on average away.
STREAKS – 4 overall without a win. Have conceded in the last 5 matches overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – Lyon take note – Reims are very hard to score against ( usually 2nd half goals) and have lost only 1-0 twice against top 5 sides. The other match was a 0-0.
Admittedly they have trouble scoring so this could be 0-0, 1-0, 2-0, if we presume a Lyon win. Under 2.5 goals screams out from both sides. I hope it rings true in this match. NO head to heads and when teams meet for the first time, it can be difficult to read.
130pm – Feyenoord v Willem II – 1.17 home – all of the short priced Dutch teams won well yesterday.
HEAD TO HEADS
Feyenoord are priced to replicate the last 6-1 win rather than the 1-0 prior to that. Apart from the mauling last time out , matches have been quite tight.
LEAGUE POSITION- 5th v 18th – playing bottom side today. A chance to go 4th
HOME TEAM – -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Feyenoord
RECENT HOME FORM – DWWDW – have scored 2 and 5 against bottom 4 sides.
RECENT FORM OVERALL – WDWLWLWDWDL – all defeats have come away to top 3 sides. – being ultra critical, an element of inconsistency as far as stringing a winning sequence together.
GOAL TRENDS – 60% overs at home Scored in all home matches.
STREAKS – 5 at home without defeat – have conceded in last 7 overall.
AWAY TEAM – past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Willem II
RECENT AWAY FORM – DLDLLL – no win away for Willem. Lost only 3-2 against PSV which Feyenoord should take note of. Big defeats v 2nd and 3rd bottom.
RECENT OVERALL FORM – DDLLLDLWLLLL – only 1 win was at home 3-2-5-4 conceded in last 4 defeats.
GOAL TRENDS – 50/50 overs away. 0.75 scored on average all season.Only 2 clean sheets this season. 3 of last 4 matches over 2.5 goals.
STREAKS – 6 without a draw. Have conceded in last 4 away.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – this could be a spanking if Feyenoord replicate their wins against bottom sides and last head to head. Willem’s recent goals concessions could compound this. Do note that Willem lost only 3-2 to top team PSV so could be competitive. A feeling this 1.17 should translate into the pre requisite amount of goals ( 3/4+ for the home side)
2pm – Inter v Cagliari – 1.59 home
HEAD TO HEADS
Cagliari very competitive in last 4 head to heads, more so in 2012.
LEAGUE POSITION – 2nd v 12th. Juve only managed a draw yesterday so this is a perfect opportunity for Inter to close the gap from 5 points to just 2.
HOME TEAM – -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Inter Milan
RECENT HOME FORM – LLWWW – poor start to the season against 7th and 20th but now 3 consecutive wins against 4th, 8th and 17th
RECENT FORM OVERALL – WLWLWWWWWWWL – recent loss was a 3-2 away to 6th. Inter have beaten 10th, 13th, 15th and 16th away without defeat – playing 12th at home today. No draws at all.
GOAL TRENDS – 60% overs at home.Last 4 matches overs, and scored and conceded in each. Inter have failed to score in only 1 match this season.
STREAKS – 12 without a draw. Have scored in last 8 and conceded in last 4.
AWAY TEAM – past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Cagliari
RECENT AWAY FORM – LDLWWL – wins away, both 0-1, against 13th and 17th.Lost 4-1 to 4th so should be wary against 2nd.
RECENT OVERALL FORM – LDDLLLWWWWLD – all wins against bottom 8 sides. Recent loss was a 4-1 as mentioned above. Lost both aways against top 10
GOAL TRENDS – 17% overs away from home. 0.67 scored on average. Have only scored 1 in the first half away from home and conceded most 2nd half away.
STREAKS – 4 away without a draw. Have scored in last 3
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – a recent streak of 1 loss only in last 6 suggests what Cagliari are capable of, 1-0 wins and 0-0 in these matches, but this was against bottom 8. Inter have failed to score in only 1 this season so Cagliari unlikely to replicate a 1-0 or 0-0. No draws for Inter should continue today if they continue their excellent scoring. Cagliari , with 17% overs away, could be tough to beat, but the elephant in the room is the recent 4-1 loss v Fiorentina only 2 matches agao – Fiorentina are 4th. This could be a template for today. Inter have scored and conceded last 4 – will they do so again?
230pm – Anzhi Makhachkala v Rostov – 1.32 home
HEAD TO HEADS
Tight head to heads, no more tighter than 2 consecutive score draws. At home, 1-2 loss and 1-0 win means Anzhi look at little short if we are basing our decisions solely on head to heads.
LEAGUE POSITION – 3rd v 13th – a win should take Anzhi top on goal difference – are you reading this Mr Eto’o?
HOME TEAM – -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Anzhi
RECENT HOME FORM – WWDWWWWW – does this great home form supercede tight head to heads? Do note that Anzhi have conceded in 7 of the 8 matches at home. Indeed they have conceded, while winning, in last 6, winning last 5.
RECENT FORM OVERALL – WDWLDWWWWWWWLWD – only 2 defeats, both away and both v 1st and 4th.
GOAL TRENDS – Eto’o has not scored in last 7 in all competitions. If he plays today, speculate? – 75% overs at home, down to the fact Anzhi concede and still win, meaning 2-1 is the most obvious scoreline and a natural overs scoreline. Anzhi have scored in all home matches.
STREAKS – 8 at home without defeat. Have scored in last 11. Have scored in last 8 at home and conceded in last 6 at home.
AWAY TEAM – past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Rostov
RECENT AWAY FORM – LLDDLLLL – no win away. Have played 5 away v top 7 , losing them all, but lost 1-0 v 1st and 7th, and 2-1 v 2nd, 3-1 v 5th and 2-1 v 6th.
RECENT OVERALL FORM – LDLLDWDWLLLDLLW – last win was against 11th .All 3 wins have come at home.
GOAL TRENDS – 50/50 overs away from home. 0.50 scored on average away.
STREAKS – 8 away without a win Have conceded in last 5 away
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – value might lie in Eto’o to score today if he plays. A player of this calibre will not go too many more without a goal. This could be an uncomfortable afternoon for home backers. Anzhi tend to concede and if they don’t score 2 then they don’t win. yes, Rostov have lost all away v top 7, but 2 were 1-0’s and only 1 match saw an opponent win by 2 clear goals.
Both teams could score today. I hope Rostov score first today.
4pm – Fulham v Sunderland – 1.77 home
HEAD TO HEADS
As is traditional, Fulham tend to be stronger at home ( by necessity as away, they turn into a Sunday league side, although this could be cured this season). Sunderland are their usual selves. Defend and hope to nick a 1-0. 3 0-0’s in last 5 head to heads.
LEAGUE POSITION – 9th v 16th A chance to go top 6 for Fulham with a win.
HOME TEAM – -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Fulham
RECENT HOME FORM – WWLWD – sole loss at home a 1-2 v City. 3 clean sheets at home resulted in 3 wins.
RECENT FORM OVERALL – WLLWWLDWDDD – 4 score draws in last 5 matches. Lucky to get a 2-2 v Everton with a 90th minute goal. Have only failed to score in 1 this season.
GOAL TRENDS – only 1 match not over 2.5 goals this season Have scored and conceded in 6 of the last 7 matches.
STREAKS – No defeat in 5 overall. Have scored in the last 8 overall .
AWAY TEAM – past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Sunderland.
RECENT AWAY FORM – DDDLDL – more like Slumberland than Sunderland. No wins away. Defeats have come against 1st and 5th
RECENT OVERALL FORM – DDDDWLDDLL – what a poor season. Sole win 1-0 at home to Wigan. An over reliance on Fletcher early season has bitten Sunderland on the arse. If he doesn’t score, guess what, Sunderland do not win. He has not scored now in 5 and Sunderland have not won in 5.
GOAL TRENDS – 50/50 away. Score an average 0.7 this season.
STREAKS – 6 away without a win. 5 overall without a win.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – poor Sunderland. Fletcher does not score, they do not win. Concern that Sunderland might do a “Reading” and win when they need to win. Fulham are strong at home. Both sides love draws though. Fulham failed to score only once this season so expect them to score at some stage. Goal trends are incongruous. I would favour Fulham here given Sunderland with a mis firing Fletcher cannot score more than 1.
5pm – Anderlecht v KV Kortrijk – 1.34 home
HEAD TO HEADS
Anderlecht are unbeaten in league proper matches, not play offs where the dynamic changes.
LEAGUE POSITION – 1st v 6th.
HOME TEAM – -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team -Anderlecht
RECENT HOME FORM – WWDWWWW – sole draw v 3rd was a 2-2. Have scored 2-3-6 at home against 3rd, 4th, 5th so augurs well against 6th.
RECENT FORM OVERALL – DWWWDDDWWLWLWWW-only 2 defeats came against 9th and 14th away.
GOAL TRENDS – 71% overs at home. Average 3 exactly scored at home. Have scored in all home matches. Have failed to score in only 1 match this season and that was away.
STREAKS – 4 match home winning streak. 7 at home without defeat. 8 overall without a draw.
AWAY TEAM – past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Kortrijk
RECENT AWAY FORM – WLWLWWLD – lost 2-0 v 2nd , 1-0 v 8th, 2-1 v 12th. Beat 4th 0-1. Recent draw was a 0-0.
RECENT OVERALL FORM – DWLLWWDLWWWDLWD – only 1 defeat in 7 was a 1-0 away defeat so Kortrijk are in reasonably good recent form. Anderlecht beware. Their recent concession rate particularly good – 1-0-0-1-1-1-0
GOAL TRENDS – 25% overs away from home. Have failed to score in last 2 away.
STREAKS – no strong streaks.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – in the league proper, Anderlecht tend to win either 1-0 or 2-0. Kortrijk are going through a bit of a good defensive patch at present. conceding no more than 1 in their last 7 matches. Anderlecht beware. 25% overs away suggests that although they might be tough to score against, they find it tough to score too. anderlecht have scored 5-4-6 in their last 3 matches. Kortrijk beware!
An interesting match. Which goal trend will out? If a concerted 0-0, trust Anderlecht to get at least one goal?