19th jan 2013 Football Betting research

Fancy laying a 1.16 shot and winning? Then follow my “ultra speculative” bets which have been offering superb and big priced wins ( laying a shortie = a big priced win !) Well done Zwolle, and don’t say you weren’t warned. Zwolle’s form was there for all to see. Quite simply , look out for the words ” ultra speculative” in the research commentary. I always provide an argument for these possible big priced wins , and they are performing at present, but are unlikely to have a high strike rate.

Elsewhere, Lyon and Evian both failed to score. Perhaps Evian should ship their African players off more often when getting a draw against a 1.4 shot!

Schalke and Hannover – I think I nailed to both teams to score first ( 5-4 final result!). Galatasary at 1.81 exhibited signs o a 1.81 shot. Yes, both teams scored in a tight match, and yes it was 2-1 , but to Kasimpasa.

There is a Saturday unmanaged in play market but I’ll be getting my matches from the traditional in play coupon today. Just quick research today as this is newsletter weekend, so no betting research templates.

230pm – B Munich v G Furth- 1.11 home. I’m getting a little worried now. Juventus at 1.25, Fiorentina at 1.25, PSG at 1.25, PSV at 1.16 have all failed to win, and 3 have lost in their first match after the Post Xmas Break. Now the boys from Bayern return. Surely not?

2 consecutive 1-1 draws at home for Bayern Munich is a sequence which is priced to end today. A 1-1 for Furth in their last match and we have what will be a very small chance probability wise of a 1-1 today.  3-0 and 6-2 in head to heads fits in perfectly with the 1.11 quote.

Bayern have won either 2-0 or 3-0 against bottom sides. G. Furth have lost by either 2 or 3 goals against top 3 so there is an angle in perhaps.

This is the first match after the Xmas break and you know how long the list of shorties not winning after the Xmas break is!.

bayern have scored in all matches this season so pray for a concerted period of 0-0! G Furth are really vulnerable in the first 15 minutes of matches.  No win in 15 now for Furth.

Looks like the 1-1 sequence should end today and Bayern win by 2/3 goals as is the general pattern. Will the curse of the short odds returnees from the Xmas break strike again. PSV at 1.16 yesterday fell foul of it.

3pm – Celtic v Hearts – 1.33 home – Celtic have a habit of becoming the bookies best friend with their ability to throw the odd shocker at heavy odds on. Note the weather today. Will this be a leveller?

5 clean sheets in last 6 head to heads for Celtic so they could win to nil with home advantage today, although they have seemed to perform a lot better away from home.

Celtic’s last 3 defeats have all been without scoring. Can Hearts keep them out today? They have failed to score in 5 of last 6 head to heads so perhaps a 0-0 insurance bet?

5 of Celtic’s last 6 wins have been to nil. Celtic have not conceded in last 3 at home. Celtic have only failed to score in 3 matches.

4 of Hearts 5 wins this season have come at home. They are really inconsistent. Look at recent form. LDWDLWDWLD – inconsistency is not the trader’s best friend.

20% overs at home and 20% overs away for these 2 sides. Could be a tight Match. hearts have failed to score in last 2.

Celtic have only conceded 1 goal in the first half at home. CEltic have scored first in 8 of 10 home matches. The opponent has only led in 1 of Celtic’s home matches.

Looks like a possible home win to nil if head to heads and recent CEltic home form can continue. Hearts have not scored in last 2 matches which may compound this.

3pm – Liverpool v Norwich – 1.34 home – Liverpool won the 2 2012 meetings.  3 of Liverpool’s last 4 losses have come away from home. Liverpool are quite readable. Against top 10, they have lost 6 and drawn 5. Against 11th and lower, they have won 8, drawn 2 and lost only 1. Norwich just fall into that latter band so expect Liverpool not to win today.

After a run of 10 unbeaten, Norwich had a crap Xmas, LLLLD now for them, all 4 defeats have been by a single goal so they are competitive if a little leaky.

Only 1 win away from home was a 3-4 v Swansea.

Daniel Sturridge an excellent signing for Liverpool and should fill his boots.

Norwich have led at half time in only 1 match this season out of 11 away.

Suarez the key to Liverpool home and away.

This could be a tight one goal in it win for the home side.  Norwich have failed to score in only 3 of last 17 so could score today, which would suggest overs as a natural conclusion.

Overs in Liverpool’s last 7 matches and one team has scored 3 or more in 6 of last 7 matches ( Liverpool scored 3/4 in 4 and conceded 3 in 2  of those matches)

3pm – Man City v Fulham – 1.26 home – with Martin Jol on the radar re next sacked manager, this suggests all is not well at Fulham, and I think research will back this up.  The only hope is that the over paid ladyboys at City find it a bit too cold -diddums- and under perform. City have only been beaten by United and Sunderland this season. Only 2 draws at home v 5th and 6th. 5 wins to 6 in 6 matches around Fulham’s position in the league.

Only 2 wins in 14 for Fulham were both 2-1 wins.

They have scored and conceded in 6 of the last 7 matches.

2 consecutive clean sheets for City.

Only 4 clean sheets all season for Fulham. City have only failed to score in 3 this season.

City have scored in last 11 at home. City have scored 18 in 2nd half at home.  Fulham have conceded in last 8.

It seems that City will inevitably score this afternoon , most of their goals come 2nd half so fear not f it is 0-0 at half time. Fulham are in free fall but could get a consolation if they keep their run of scoring and conceding in tact. They scored 2 against United and 3 against Arsenal so have a pedigree for scoring against the big boys without winning.

 

 

3pm – Newcastle v Reading – 1.81 – you lose a player who has dug you out of the doo doo on more than one occasion this season, and you’re odds on? Is this a christmas cracker joke?

3pm – Swansea v Stoke – 2.22 home. Swans a real force to be reckoned with now. Stoke most unstoke like are involved in matches of late with one team scoring 3! 

3pm – West Ham v QPR – 2.14 home – Arry back at an old club – another Laaaaandaaaan cor blimey derby guvnor 2 for a paaaand 

3pm – Wigan v Sunderland – 2.14 home – the, ahem , glamour tie of the weekend.

4pm – South Africa v Cape Verde Islands – 1.65 home. I’ll be cheering on my team, Zambia, this ACN. South africa have a string of good professionals in their ranks and should get something here?

5pm – Sociedad v Barcelona – 1.32 away. -Victor Valdez not renewing his contract for Barca, but does he play? To be honest you could stick a fat bloke from the pub in goal for Barca and it wouldn’t matter.

530pm – W Bremen v Dortmund – 1.75 away – Galatasary’s match yesterday showed what bookies expect when pricing up an away side at 1.75 ish. They expect a tight match, both teams to score and ideally the away side to win. I suppose what we learned yesterday was a neutral bet is probably better – such as over 2.5 goals. Only 3 defeats all season for Dortmund have been 3-2, 1-2 and 2-3 so very tight and both sides scoring, and all overs ( and remember Werder have a rep for overs).

Dortmund have scored and conceded in all bar 1 away match this season. Werder have lost all of their 5 matches home and away v top 5 ( Dortmund are 3rd). Dortmund have already won 2-1 v Werder this season. Werder scored and conceded in 4 of those 5 defeats v top 5.

Dortmund have scored and conceded in last 7 home and away.

Limited research today alas but it would seem both sides could score today which brings in overs into the equation. Dortmund should not lose today and could win a 1-2, something like that.

530pm – West Brom v Aston Villa – 1.85 home

645pm – Twente v Waalwijk – 1.38 home

745pm – Juventus v Udinese – 1.46 home

815pm – Porto v Pacos Ferreira – 1.21 home – ahh! Old Faithful!

Last 2 head to heads were away at Pacos and very tight. Pacos could be pains in the arse’s this evening as they have only lost 1 match all season, a 1-2 v Benfica.

Porto at home have not played any of the top 6 ( Pacos are 4th) yet this season so tough to gauge how they set up and perform v the big boys.

Pacos have conceded 0-1-0-3-0-0-0 away this season. The 3 looks rather anomolous.

Porto have only conceded 1 goal at home this season. Pacos average only 0.57 goals away this season.

Porto have scored in all home matches this season Porto have scored in last 12.

Porto shouldn’t lose this evening. I would advise a lay as Pacos could be tough to beat, so perhaps a 0-0 back to lay trade is more speculative and adviseable.

 

STANDOUT STATS

No win in 15 for G Furth.

2 consecutive 1-1 home draws for Bayern.

Bayern have scored in all matches this season.

Manchester City have scored in last 11 at home.

Porto v Pacos – Pacos average only 0.57 goals away this season. Porto have scored in all home matches this sea

Dortmund have scored and conceded in all bar 1 away match this season.