1st October 2012 Football Betting Research

Calm after the storm today. 3 tough matches and I am not too confident about involvement in any of them. There are some great, albeit small patterns and sequences ( especially winless) which teams would seek to end.

6pm – Besiktas v Sivasspor – 1.74 home – 10th v 11th in the league and the reason I look at league positions is because , like today, they may unravel two similar level sides , while the odds tell another story.

Let’s not over analyse as there’s only 6 matches in.

2 wins, 2 draws and a loss for both sides this season so far, so they are matching each other. Besiktas have scored 3 goals in each of their 2 home matches, a 3-3 draw v Gala and a 3-0 win against the bottom side. Siv have scored only 1 away so this is a current case of goals v lack of goals.

In 5 of the last 6 head to heads, both teams have scored and in the 2 recent head to heads at Besiktas, Bes won 2-1 and 3-1. Perhaps look at a derivative of this today? Besiktas have scored 3-3-3-2 in their last 4 matches so are in a good goalscoring groove. Contrast that with 1-3-0-0-1 for Sivasspor and it looks like a replication of 3-1 or 2-1?

8pm – QPR v West Ham – 2.26 home – like the Villa match yesterday, this is a local derby and that can put a spanner in the form works. LDLDL for QPR is quite some pattern which is not going to continue for too long, that’s for sure. QPR cannot afford to keep up this winless sequence. West Ham are solid at home with 2 wins and a draw, and away it’s a loss and a draw, and against Norwich and Swansea. QPR I would lump in with those 2 as being a similar ” type” of team.

2 recent London derbies for QPR have seen a 0-0 with Chelsea ( note Chelsea were affected more by the International break and the Champions League to follow and 2-1 loss to SPurs ( QPR scored first)

Swansea have spanked these 2 early season, but take this anomolous result out,West Ham have conceded 1-0-0-1.

QPR have only kept one clean sheet this season .QPR have not scored at home yet this season, and West Ham have not scored away this season. Again I ask the question, what are the chances of that happening again? Laying 0-0 is a little precarious because the odds are so poor. It may be backable for traders though but then the majority of goals scored by each team have come first half.

QPR have conceded 8 out of 11 in the 2nd half. West Ham have conceded only 1 in the 2nd half. If this is 0-0 halftime  , I would favour West Ham based on form.

ANGLES IN? – QPR are on a LDL so far and this winless sequence and pattern of LDLDL cannot continue . West Ham have been good defensively ( if we take the anomolous Swansea result out) . QPR have failed to score at home, and West Ham away and surely this will end won’t it? It all makes for a tight match , but both teams have good 1st half goalscoring records.

A match of mixed angles this one, and with the London derby factor, I can’t nail anything rock solid ( and the odds agree!)

830pm – Getafe v Mallorca – 2.2 home – Mallorca are unbeaten this season and have won all home  but drawn 1-1 in both away matches . Getafe have beaten Real Madrid 2-1 and lost 1-4 for barcelona at home, and 3 points is 3 points more than they were expecting.

4 out of 5 overs for getafe why? Well they have scored and conceded in all matches this season. This contrasts with 4 consecutive unders matches for Mallorca, where they did score and concede in both away matches.

Both sides have scored in all of these matches this season.  100% overs at home plays 100% unders away, which means 1-1 if both teams have scored  in all matches this season.

Only 5 matches in, but we do have patterns of both teams scoring in their matches this season, but the goals trends are incongruous.

Getafe have had a tough start at home, and beating Real really was a bonus. Both sides have scored  in last 2 head to heads and tend to share head to heads over time.

A toughie and one I wouldn’t want to get involved in.