England got another win and another clean sheet, and Sweden u21 avoided another draw. I highlighted Norwayu21’s ability to score goals v the big guns. Indeed they scored first against Spain u21 in a game ending 5-2. Over 3.5 goals in with ease.


Plenty on today. We need to find out which matches are friendlies and which are competitive.

1245pm – Israel v Portugal – 1.57 away – only 2 draws for Israel in last 21 matches, both were 1-1. 3 wins in last 4 v Luxembourg twice and Finland – yes earth shattering form which will have Portugal shaking at the knees.

These 2 have not met since 2000.

Israel and Portugal are 2nd with 7 points. Russia top with 12 and a winnable match they have v Norn iron.

No draw at home in 15 in all competitions for the Israelis. 2012/13 qualification sees a draw with Azerbaijan, wins against Luxembourg and a 0-4 loss to Russia.

Pork and cheese have not won their last 4 matches, 1-0 loss to Russia, draw with Northern Ireland, 2-2 draw in a friendly v gabon and 2-3 loss to Ecuador.

Worrying form and Northern Ireland show that a good defence can stifle the Portugeuse.

REcent defeats away from home have been either 1-0 or 2-1. Last 2 were 1-0 v Germany and Russia. Portugal even struggled to a 1-2 win against Luxembourg.

Portugal have a superb record in World Cup qualifiers only losing 2 since 1996. They are currently on a LD sequence at the moment and are unlikely to lose this match judging by overall form. REal trouble scoring in last 2 matches and therein lies Israel’s chances here. Tight defence. Only 1 defeat since 1996 away in the World Cup qualifiers Europe for Portugal and that came in last away match. Highly unlikely statistically to suffer a 2nd consecutive away defeat?


1245pm – Malaysia v Yemen – 2.1 home

330pm – Lebanon v Thailand – 2.06 home. Always look for a defensive set up from the Thai team. Asian Cup qualifier. No win in 6 for Lebanon. Failed to score in 6 of last 8 and have only scored 2 goals in last 8 matches. Obvious where concerns lie. Scored 2 at home lately against yemen but failed to score last 2 homes.

6 defeats and a 1-1 with vietnam in last 7 Asian Cup qualifiers. In last 5 defeats, failed  to score.

Thailand have been generally tight of late in all competitions, conceding 1-0-0-0-1-0-1-1-0-3-0-1-1-0-1 so defence is their strength. Only one anomoly there. Thailand are not good travellers. LLLDLLLWDLL latest away. Win v Myanmar.

LDLL latest Asian Cup qualifiers. Conceded 1-0-1-3 -Kuwait scored via an own goal and 2 2nd half goals so again an inference that Thailand can be tough to score against.

Away form goes back to 2010 in Asian Cup.

0-0 looks a real goer here don’t you think? There is collateral form, rather tenuous and isolated though. lebanon drew 1-1 with vietnam. Thailand beat Vietnam 3-1 lately.

We have a home team who make Fernando Torres look prolific and an away team who are really tough to score against generally.


4pm – Bulgaria v Malta – 1.15 home. Ecuador were this price yesterday and won 5-0. Therein lies your template. Bulgaria are an uneasy 2nd so must win this match in Group B against a team yet to get a point. 1.15 as you know signals 3/4 goals and a possible win to nil, so what does the research say?

In the last 9 for Bulgaria, there seems to have been a real focus on defending, they have conceded 1-1( Holland) – 2-0-2-0-1-0-1 . 2 conceded against Italy ( both 2nd half) and Turkey ( 1 was 90th minute).  This suggests a possible win to nil today with home advantage .A little inconsistent at home of late, 2012 form reads LWDWDL – Most recent loss a 0-1 v Ukraine. Both wins 1-0 only against Cyprus and armenia. So can cope with minnows but not go over board.

A case of drawitis for Bulg in qualifiers. DWDD – win was a 1-0  v Armenia. 0-1-0 conceded last 3.

Look strong at home in qualifiers. No defeat at home since 2005. Have scored at home in the 3 home qualifiers.

Only 5 draws since 2008 for malta are either 1-1 or 0-0.

Beat Leichtenstein 1-0 and 0-0 v Northern Ireland latest.Malta have won 3 of their last 5 aways, albeit against Luxembourg, San Marino and Leichtenstein.

Malta have scored in 4 of last 5 aways.

An absolute dire record away in World Cup qualfiers. 23 consecutive away defeats. Failed to score in 9 of last 11.

It seems Bulgaria are most likely to win, but not muller Malta. 2-3-4 seems to be the recent concession rate away in qualifiers.


4pm – Japan v Canada – 1.46 home. – this is a friendly so we must prioritise competitive matches.

5pm – Croatia v Serbia – 1.74 home

5pm – Slovenia v Iceland – 1.81 home

6pm – Kazakhstan v Germany – 1.09 away – this will almost certainly not be “Sexy Time” for Borat’s Boys.Germany have played one more than 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 6th so I suppose the motivation is there to keep on winning.

Borat did a high five with his son Huey Lewis after Kazaks beat Moldova 1-3 last match. Sporadic winners though. At home latest, WDDWLW -wins v Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan – basically do well against teams who score highly in Scrabble.

Irish took until the 88th minute to break them down and Austria couldn’t last match.

Have scored in 8 of last 10 home World cup qualifiers. Failed to score against England and Austria. Germany’s defensive prowess could equal Englands?

Germany completely ballsed it up against Sweden – 4-0 up and ended 4-4. A 0-0 with Netherland in a friendly and 1-2 Friendly win v France. Only 1 defeat away since June 2008 was a 5-3 v Swiss in a friendly.

Germany have conceded in 11 of last 12 aways in all competitions.

Germany have not lost an away WC qualifier since my records go back to 1934.

They have won their 2012 matches 1-2 v austria and 1-6 v ireland so still keep that concession rate on. Have conceded last 3.

Scored 6 and 4 in last 2 games. Poor Borat. I think he should watch a Pamela Anderson film instead of this match.

Yes, Germany are conceding, but will the Kazak’s really score? Note germany have really gone to town goals wise last 2 matches. 4 goals start perhaps?


6pm – Norway v Albania – 1.44 home

615pm – Andorra v Turkey – 1.08 away – as the odds suggest an away win, what my research will look to do is to decipher a possible correct score.  Turkey are 4th on 3 points and I am not sure if they will progress from GRoup D with Netherlands top on 12, Hungary and Romania 2nd on 7.

Questionable motivation for the Turks. You could argue this is a dead rubber?

Since 2007 Andorra have lost all their matches bar 2 0-0 draws with Armenia and Azerbaijan.  They have only scored twice in their last 21 matches so a defeat to nil is on the cards.

They have lost their last 20 homes, scoring in only 3 of the matches.

Not getting mullered as often as you think. In last 20 defeats at home, have conceded 5 or 6 only 3 times. Just glancing at the table, 2 and 3 goals conceded tends to occur most often at home.

They’ve lost their last 16 WC qualifiers, failing to score in 13 of the matches. Recently conceded 6-5-4-3-1 . Have failed to score last 3 at home.

Only 1 win in last 7 for Turkey. Beat Estonia well, but since have scored 0-1-1-0. That 3 against Estonia signals there is goals in them against the right opponents.

Turkey have lost their last 3 away 2-0 to Austria and Netherlands, and 3-1 v Hungary. A chance to end that losing sequence of course.

DLDLLL away from home in qualification is poor, scoring 0-0-1-0-0-1. Where are the goals?

I would not be looking for a thrashing here judging by Turkey’s recent profligacy infront of goal. I can foresee a win to nil, perhaps a 0-2 or 0-3.  Do beware that this has the feel of a dead rubber about it, although if 2nd and 3rd draw or lose, Turkey with a win will only be a pointbehind  ( not sure how many qualifier matches remain though).

710pm – Slovakia v Lithuania – 1.58 home

715pm – Luxembourg v Azerbaijan – 2.14 away

730pm – Austria v Faroe Islands – 1.14 home – a win for Austria takes them to 7 points in Group c and depending what Sweden do against Ireland, Austria are in with a real shout here. One of these 2 will take points off the other. 1.14 -it doesn’t need repeating – 3/4 goals and a possible win to nil. Austria’s sole defeat in qualification to date was a 1-2 v Germany. A decent showing.  0-0 away at Kazaks but a 4-0 home win augurs well for this match and a possible win to nil?

No draw in 11 home qualifiers since 2004. A 3-1 v Faroes is included from Sept 2009. Indeed Austria conceded in 6 of last 7 at home but a clean sheet v Kazaks.

No win in last 8 for Faroes,they have lost all bar 4 matches away since March 2001.

Current 9 match losing streak and 14 match streak without winning.

9 match losing streak in qualifiers. Tend to concede 2/3 .germans scored 2 of their 3 in 2nd half so perhaps Austria may have to wait for that first goal.

Tough to weigh in the win to nil here with Austria conceding regularly in 6 of last 7 at home. A clean sheet v Kazaks though might give hope.

2-0,3-0, 3-1 perhaps the goers tonight although they showed an ability to score the 4 against Kazaks.


730pm – Moldova v Montenegro – 1.63 away

730pm – Netherlands v Estonia – 1.07 home – a must win for Dutch as 2nd and 3rd are on 9 points in Group D.

2 consecutive draws for Dutch, albeit in friendlies, should end today. 2-4-3-4 scored so far in qualification.

14 of the last 15 home qualifiers have seen a clean sheet. Quite superb and exactly what correct score punters want to see, the potential for a win to nil.

2-3-4-5 seems to be the goal band for Dutch at home. Only 3 scored against andorra suggests the forward line might rotate. Van Der Fart scored in that Andorra match and no RVP scoring. Only 1 draw for Estonia in last 25 matches.

In 2012 qualifiers they failed to score in 3 and only scored 1 against Andorra.

It really helps when we see stats like that. it really does point to a win to nil and correct score lovers will only have the 0-0, 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, 5-0 etc to choose from.

745pm – FYR Macedonia v Belgium – 1.71 away

745pm – Northern Ireland v Russia – 1.54 away

745pm – Spain v Finland – 1.09 home

745pm – Sweden v Rep of Ireland – 1.45 home – you rather fear for the Irish at the moment. Racing Post think Ireland can get something here. Yes, a finishing masterclass from Ibra I suspect.

All to play for here with Sweden on 7 points, Ireland on 6 points and Germany with a near guaranteed 3 pointer against kazakhstan.

Sweden can really score when they put their mind to it. 2-2-4-4-1-3-2 in recent matches is testament to that. Only 1 draw in last 14 at home . The goals have not stopped in qualifiers 2-2-4 against kazaks, Faroes and Germany. So be ware the form as kazaks and Faroes are really poor and they were 4-0 down to germany. So maybe the racing Post argument might hold firm?

Only 1 home match a 2-0 win v kazaks saw the 2nd goal coming after 90th minute. So against a side as defensive as Ireland, Sweden could labour?

Ireland’s 2012 defeats in all competitions have come against the likes of Croatia, Spain, Italy, Germany and a 0-1 v Greece. Generally though it is the top European teams only who seem able to beat trapps men. Ireland have conceded last 3 qualifiers so watch out there . All recent goals v Faroes came in the 2nd half.

Ireland have conceded last 6 away qualifiers. They conceded against Kazaks and Faroes.

this is a headscratcher. Form is so difficult to quantify with both sides having played Kazaks and Faroes. One for me to leave alone I feel. We don’t have to bet you know!

8pm – Colombia v Bolivia – 1.25 home

8pm – France v Georgia – 1.14 home

8pm – San Marino v England – 1.02 away. Where’s the value? Perhaps in a hatrick being scored? A 6-0 win ? No point really researching this. England need the win to go top. Betfair’s markets illiquid at time of writing for the value bets. Over 6.5 goals for example is only 1.31.

England at 4+ winning margin is an illiquid 1.35 but still better value than the above which needs an additional 3 goals.

To score 2 goals or more is a good market to look at I would venture although again it is illiquid. Some of the odds on players to score ( not score first) offer great value for me. 1.52 for Rooney to score and 1.02 for England to win! Hmm.

So that’s your job today, look for value. Correct score bets are better with the bookies. Start at 5-0 like last time and perhaps include a couple more or variable profit dutch leaving a break even on 5-0 and load profit on 6-0 or 7-0.  6 seems to be the maximum concession rate at home in WC qualifiers for San Marino so bear that in mind. 7 was scored by England nearly 20 years ago.

8pm – Scotland v Wales – 1.91 home

8pm – Uruguay v Paraguay – 1.62 home