Some interesting results yesterday which ended sequences – Barca won , after 2 winless, Lille won away after a run of away draws .
Yet again in the African Cup of NAtions, we got some poor scorelines, 1-0 and 0-0. When is it going to come to life? defensive tactics are stifling the early matches.
3pm – Zambia v Nigeria – 2.3 away – My team Zambia, defending champions, are not favourites in this match. They drew 1-1 first match after taking a half time lead.
These 2 have only met twice, latterly when Nigeria won 2-0 in a friendly. No win in 6 for Zambia, albeit all bar one was a friendly. 3 consecutive draws, and a 1-1 in the ACN. If we take these friendlies as accurate, then Zambia are having trouble scoring – 0-0-0-0-1 last 5 matches.
Superb unbeaten streak in 2012 saw them win the competition.
Nigeria are now unbeaten in their last 9 matches, a smattering of friendlies and competitive matches. 4 draws in last 6 equally as tentative as Zambia. A 1-1 opening match – possible win scuppered by 90th minute consolation. So it would seem we have 2 strongly defensive sides looking to nick a 1-0 . Zambia tried it first match, scored 1st, but conceded. Nigeria tried it first match, scored first then conceded 90th minute.
Nigeria were last in the competition 2010 so their form then might not be accurate.
This ACN looks like continuing being a drab defensive affair with these 2 if the form is accurate ( cue Keeganesque 5-4 thriller – my team Zambia winning naturally!).
Will we get mileage as traders in the 1-1 . If either team scores first, the trade is still alive.
You get the feeling that both teams are set up to nick that 1-0.
6pm – Burkina Faso v Ethiopia – 1.97 home – another odds on shot today, as rare as hen’s teeth in this ACN. I believe Ghana were odds on yesterday and won 1-0, Ivorians were 1.32 and won 2-1 with a very late goal. So odds ons are having a good time of it, and Burkina are JUST odds on.
Unbeaten in 6 and very lucky to nick a 90th minute 1-1 draw with Nigeria, Burkina are another side struggling to score against the better African sides without losing. 1-0-0-3 ( Swaziland),-1 (90th minute).
burkina have a dismal record in the ACN , having last won a match in February 1998.
Why are they odds on ? Is Micheal Buerk playing up front for Ethiopia? Ethiopia have scored and conceded in their last 3, and a good 1-1 against current champs Zambia in their opening match.
These 2 last met in 2000 .
This is another toughie. I cannot see why Burkina are odds on ( albeit only just) given their dismal record in this competition. It looks, though, like Ethiopia’s first venture into the ACN according to soccerway. If Burkina continue their ACN record, then they will not win, but could draw. Dare we lay them at odds on? How trustworthy are Ethiopia ? They must be heartened by that 1-1 with Zambia?
7pm – VVV v AZ Alkmaar – 1.89 away
HEAD TO HEADS
both teams have scored and conceded in 5 of the last 6 matches. Last 2 meetings see the spoils shared VVV have not lost at home recently in head to heads.
LEAGUE POSITION – 17th v 11th – VVV could be a bogey team? They certainly do need the 3 points. AZ could climb to 7th with a win
HOME TEAM – -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team- VVV
RECENT HOME FORM – LLDLLLWDWL – only lost 1 of last 4 matches so a glimmer of hope? Beat 5th 3-1 at home which is quite something. 5 of 6 defeats at home have come with both teams scoring and a total goals tally , for defeats, of 6-5-4-6-6-5. The wins saw total goals of 4 and 5, and the draws 4 and 2. There’s goals in them there hills.!
RECENT FORM OVERALL – LLLLWWLDDWDLL – one of those wins was a 1-2 away win against AZ, with a 78th and 90th minute goal. Looks like VVV caught AZ napping at the end of the match. 2 consecutive defeats don’t tell the whole story. 2-0 up against Roda and lose 2-4! and 1-0 loss to Breda care of a 90th minute goal.Ajax could only beat VVV recently with 2 2nd half goals, the 2nd coming in the 84th minute.
GOAL TRENDS – 90% overs at home. 2.9 conceded on average and 1.8 scored on average – crazy stats!!No clean sheets at home of course!
Most goals conceded at home between 30 and 75 minutes. Interestingly VVV have scored 1st in 60% of home matches – so can we safely lay them if they score first? Only 2 overs in last 7 a testament to VVV set up hard to beat. Only 2 clean sheets all season have come in 2 aways within the last 5 matches and remember it could have been 3 were it not for a 90 minute concession v Breda.
STREAKS – Have scored in last 6 at home and conceded in last 10 at home.
AWAY TEAM – past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team – AZ – once vying for the title, having a poor season this time.
RECENT AWAY FORM – DLLLWDDLW – inconsistent away but only one defeat in last 5. 3 of 4 defeats have come against top 6 away. have scored and conceded in 3 of the 4 away defeats. Have scored and conceded in 8 of 9 away matches this season.
RECENT OVERALL FORM – LLWLDDLLDWLW – recent defeats after defeat to VVV have come against 1st, 4th and 6th. Have a poor record against bottom 3 this season, 2-1 , 2-1 losses and a 0-0 at home to bottom side.
GOAL TRENDS – 89% overs away from home. You’ll not find many matches where the home side have 90% overs and the away side 89% overs. Average 2.11 conceded away. No clean sheets away. Of this is 0-0 for a long period, you know what to do!!
Only 3 clean sheets all season for AZ. It is in the 2nd half that AZ fall apart, conceding 15 away from home and scoring only 6.
STREAKS – have scored in last 5 away and conceded in last 9 away.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – although there is no such thing as a sure thing -EVER!!!!! I will wear my girlfriend’s skimpiest mini skirt down the high street if this ends 0-0. 90% and 89% overs for both sides.
Both sides also tend to score and concede. There may be a possibility that we could up the goals to over 3.5 goals in the hope VVV and AZ continue not to keep clean sheets and have a ding dong battle.
VVV could be a bogey team for AZ at home. DWW last 3 home head to heads . AZ are vulnerable to bottom 3, having not won yet. I would not be a backer at 1.89 for AZ. Watch out too if VVV score first. They score first in 60% of home matches, but don’t win 60% of home matches, so they may be worth laying if ahead.
I’m going to start shaving my legs incase this ends 0-0 ( VVV have 2 0-0’s in last 5 , albeit away, and a recent near 0-0 v Breda, away again , scuppered by a 90th minute goal).
730pm – Dortmund v Nurnberg – 1.23 home
HEAD TO HEADS
Dortmund have not win last 2, but one of those was a friendly. Prior to those matches, an ability to score 2 minimum and last 2 home wins both 2-0.
LEAGUE POSITION – 3rd v 15th – Dortmund are miles behind Bayern
HOME TEAM – -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Dortmund
RECENT HOME FORM – WWWLDWDL – only 1 win in last 5 at home most unlike Dortmund.Defeats have come against 5th and 13th, 1-2 and 2-3 so tough fought defeats.Defeat to 13th, draw with 14th, playing 15th today – struggles against lower teams?
RECENT FORM OVERALL – LWDWWWDDLWW – good recent form with only 1 loss recently, but an Everton-like ability – have scored and conceded in 7 of last 8 matches, won 0-5 last time out which should set them up nicely today you would think, to end a 2 match home win sequence.
GOAL TRENDS – have scored and conceded in all matches home and away against bottom 4. 75% overs at home. 2.22 scored on average overall. The opponent has scored first in only 1 home match. Dortmund have led at halftime in 5 of 8 home matches. Dortmund have failed to score only once this season. All bar one match this season has had total goals of 2 or more. This suggests overs is a good starting point in the hope the 2nd goal is scored early enough for the market to hint at successful overs .
STREAKS – Dortmund have scored in their last 8 overall.
AWAY TEAM – past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team – nurnberg
RECENT AWAY FORM – WWLLLLDLD – wins away to 8th and 9th, have lost away to all top 7 sides. Have lost against top 6 away without scoring. Defeats against 2nd and 5th only 1-0
RECENT OVERALL FORM – LWLDDWLWDD – inconsistent.Last 2 wins came at home against 13th and lower in the league. Have failed to win home or away against top 7 , but have drawn at home against Bayern and Dortmund in 1-1 score draws.
GOAL TRENDS – 56% overs away from home. have led at halftime in only 1 away match. Only 2 overs in last 11 matches.
STREAKS – 7 away without a win.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – no win at home in 2 for Dortmund is a sequence which must end soon. Only 1 win in 5 at home is unacceptable. 2-0 has been the habitual head to head score. Dortmund have scored and conceded in all matches v bottom 4 sides and Nurnberg have scored and conceded in 1-1 draws, albeit at home against top 3. Dortmund have failed to score in only 1 match this season and this is the in play angle. Hope for a late 0-0!!
Goal trend is generally over 2.5 goals which is helped by Dortmund scoring and conceding in 7 of last 8 matches. I would be wary though of a 2-0, or a 1-1 scoreline which would not bring in overs as a bet, but may as a trade dependent on the 2nd goal time.
I have a feeling Nurnberg will park the bus this evening, and try to be as tight as 1-0 away defeats v 3rd and 5th. They will take heart from that 1-1 home draw this season with not just Dortmund but Bayern.
745pm – Millwall v Aston Villa – 2.52 home – we are Millwall, and no one likes us, and we don’t care. A very warm welcome to Aston Villa is assured at the Den this evening, and surely home support will galvanise the Lions, innit?
Aston Villa have scored and conceded in 7 of their last 9 FA Cup matches, only unable to score against City and Chelsea .
Villa away also score and concede. Millwall at home have only lost to Bolton and Brum lately in the FA Cup. Only 2 defeats at home in last 11 for Millwall.
Villa have scored and conceded in 5 of last 6 in all competitions and have scored and conceded in 6 of last 7 aways.
Not much to go on here. This isn’t a 2 legged affair so we don’t really have to worry about those kinds of permutations.
A match for me to leave behind. I suppose I can take out that fact that Villa have tended to score and concede of late in all competitions especially in the FA cup too.
8pm – Villarreal v Sabadell – 1.72 home – this is a segunda division match. I forgot Villareal were relegated! No interest from me, but if it interests you the Spanish 2nd tier stats are available at
http://www.soccerstats.com/latest.asp?league=spain2
STANDOUT STATS OF THE DAY
Zambia have only scored 0-0-0-0-1 in their last 5 matches.
Nigeria are unbeaten in their last 9 matches in all competitions.
Burkina Faso last won in the African Cup of Nations in February 1998.
VVV and AZ have both scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 head to heads.
5 out of 6 home defeats for VVV have come with both teams scoring. 6-5-4-6-6-5-4-5-4-2 – the total goals per home match for VVV.
90% over 2.5 goals for VVV at home and 89% over 2.5 goals for AZ away from home.
No clean sheets for VVV at home and AZ away from home.
AZ have scored and conceded in 8 of 9 away matches.
Only 1 win in last 5 at home for Dortmund. Dortmund don’t tend to go more than 2 games without winning at home. They have not won their last 2 home.
Dortmund have scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches at home.
Dortmund have only failed to score once this season. Only one opposition team has scored first at Dortmund this season.
dortmund have scored in their last 8 matches.
7 away without a win for Nurnberg.
BET OF THE DAY
Well, based on the form, it must be that VVV and AZ have a good chance of both scoring. There is always a degree of caution here, why? Well only 2 of VVV’s last 7 matches have been over 2.5 goals.
Dortmund have only failed to score once this season, and if there is to be a first half goal, they are likely to score it.
