Premiership fixtures today are really tough to read.



1130am – Roda JC v Ajax – 1.44 away


04.03.2012 D1 AFC Ajax 4-1 Roda Kerkrade
29.10.2011 D1 Roda Kerkrade 0-4 AFC Ajax
26.10.2011 Cup Roda Kerkrade 2-4 AFC Ajax
13.02.2011 D1 Roda Kerkrade 2-2 AFC Ajax
21.08.2010 D1 AFC Ajax 3-0 Roda Kerkrade
03.02.2010 D1 AFC Ajax 4-0 Roda Kerkrade
Ajax love playing this lot, 3/4 goal hauls regularly but that is not reflected in today’s odds.
LEAGUE POSITION – 16th v 4th. Ajax are losing  touch with the title contenders so this is a must win, despite being away from home. A Roda win takes them outside of the bottom 3.
HOME TEAM – -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Roda
RECENT HOME FORM – DWLWDD – recent 1-1 draw with Twente suggests Roda could be tough to beat. 0-1 loss to 6th at home and 0-0 v 8th also confirm this .
RECENT FORM OVERALL – DLLWLLLWDDDLL – only 1 win in last 9 and have conceded 10 goals in their last 2 away matches. And that, with meeting a team scoring 3/4 historically. Jekyll and Hyde side. 3 matches with only 1 goal conceded then suddenly we get 2 matches with 10 goals conceded.
GOAL TRENDS – 33% overs at home. . Have only conceded 3 at home and are stronger in the 2nd half from a goal scoring perspective.
STREAKS – 5 overall without a win.
AWAY TEAM – past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Ajax
RECENT AWAY FORM – WDDDDW – dropping points away despite not losing. All 4 draws score draws and Ajax have scored 6-2-1-3-2-4 away from home so Roda be ware!
RECENT OVERALL FORM – DWWDWDWDDDLWW – inconsistent and defensively problematic as these 6 score draws can attest. Only 1 loss this season was against 3rd placed at home.
GOAL TRENDS – 83% overs away from home. Average 3 away but have scored and conceded in all matches away this season. Start matches away strongly scoring 8 in first half hour so delay -react- trade might not work here.
STREAKS – 6 away without defeat. Have scored and conceded in last 6 away.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – Roda are a Jekyll and Hyde side and that is a pain as it makes them tough to predict. Ajax , despite only winning 2 away, are scoring an average of 3 away, and have a good record against bottom sides. Roda have conceded 5 in each of their last 2 matches, and that could suggest either an over reaction defensively ( and a return to tough to beat at home tactics which have served to stem the flow against better sides at home) or total vulnerability against an Ajax side who have scored 3/4 regularly against Roda and have averaged 3 away this season.
Ajax should not lose. A hope for an early Ajax goal which, if occuring, could open the flood gates. The odds do not suggest 3/4 Ajax goals though. they have only lost 1 all season and should not today. Tough to predict overs/unders. Any decision is based on your bias towards Roda at home and their defence or Ajax away and their head to heads.
130pm – Swansea v Liverpool – 2.2 away
The League Cup head to head is irrelevant. The other 2 League head to heads tell a story of a tight match which seems to be won by the first team to score. The last head to head perhaps put in the context of the time of season!
LEAGUE POSITION – 10th v 12th – should be as well matches as head to heads.
HOME TEAM – -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Swansea
RECENT HOME FORM – WDLDWD – loss was against Everton and playing the other scousers today. No wins at home yet against current top 5. Draws have come against bottom 5.
RECENT FORM OVERALL – WWDLLLDWLDDW – All defeats have come without scoring. If Swans can get a goal, then they could avoid defeat. At home they have only not scored once.
GOAL TRENDS – 83% at home. Swans are vulnerable at home just before half time having conceded 5 in that period
STREAKS – have conceded in last 10 overall and with goofy racist Suarez in opposition, Swans could be vulnerable.
AWAY TEAM – past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Liverpool.
RECENT AWAY FORM – LDWDD – sole loss away to West Brom. Have played 3 of top 5 away so could welcome a “lesser light” this afternoon. All draws away are score draws  – no clean sheets as yet for Liverpool away.
RECENT OVERALL FORM – LDLDLWDWDDDW – it was a tough start to the season,  the importance of Suarez cannot be underestimated. He has scored the goals recently which helped Liverpool to 2 1-1 draws
GOAL TRENDS – 60% overs away from home. No clean sheets away. Only 3 cleansheets for Liverpool were at home.
STREAKS – 7 overall without defeat. Have scored in last 5 matches, Suarez has scored 5.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – head to heads point to one goal being enough. If I was the Swans manager I would get Suarez out of the game. He is the one. Quite simply, when Swans score at home they don’t lose. And with Liverpool conceding away in all matches, logic suggests a lay of Liverpool.  But alas football does not work to logic. As with all Premiership matches today, this is a real toughie. From the form, it points to overs and both teams scoring ( overs only as a trade as it might end 1-1). Liverpool for me look to be improving and in Suarez have a true world class act. Sterling has been putting in, erm, Sterling work too.
130pm – PSV v Vitesse – 1.4 home
Wins by a single goal in last 3 home head to heads. PSV are yet to lose in last 6 head to heads but they have been tight and only twice has PSV opened up a 2 goal gap.
LEAGUE POSITION – 1st v 3rd – this might be tighter than the odds suggest? Vitesse having a cracking season.
HOME TEAM – -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team – PSV
RECENT HOME FORM – WWWWWWW – yet to play the top 4 at home, but have beaten 5th 3-0. Have not scored less than 3 at home this season. did manage 3 against Vitesse this year at home.
RECENT FORM OVERALL – LWWWLWWWWWWWW – no draw this season down largely to winning and winning well. Defeats against 6th and 10th away.
GOAL TRENDS – 100% overs at home. Score 4.14 at home and 0.57 conceded on average. Have scored in all bar 1 match this season. 12 overs in 13 matches. Have scored 3-6-4-3-2-4-5-6 recently – ultra consistent.Yet to play top 4 though home or away. Have not conceded away in the 2nd half, and scored 22 goals!
STREAKS – 13 without a draw. 7 match home winning streak. Have scored in last 8 overall.
AWAY TEAM – past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team- Vitesse
RECENT AWAY FORM – WWWWWW – PSV watch out. Vitesse beat Ajax 0-2 away and have only conceded 1 away all season ( against 6th). Wins largely against bottom 8.
RECENT OVERALL FORM – DWWWWDWDWLWDW – dropped points almost exclusively at home. Unlike Fulham, Vitesse love it away from Arnhem! Wilfried looks to be the main man scoring away. If he does not play, oppose Vitesse.
GOAL TRENDS – 50/50 overs away from home thanks largely to conceding just the 1. Have scored in all away matches.Vitesse have not conceded in the first half this season and conceded only 1 away. Vitesse have not scored in the first 1/2 hour of away matches
STREAKS – 6 match away winning streak. 2 match away clean sheet.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – Please bear in mind that Vitesse have not played top 3 away, but have scored 2 against 4th and 6th. this is the archetypal attack v defence it would seem, although vitesse are as capable in attack.  With 2 teams in such superb form, logic points to PSV being too short in odds and Vitesse too readily dismissed. The bookies are taking no chances, because PSV have been so consistently prolific.
In a tough afternoon of football, this is another puzzle which on the surface looked an easier assignment for the home side. Both sides to score given their seasonal records ( and it fits in with history too) Wilfried to get a Vitesse goal?
3pm – Southampton v Newcastle – 2.4 home
Head to heads not relevant to today.
LEAGUE POSITION – 19th v 14th – not quite the heights for geordies as last year, and a surprise to me that Saints are favs, albeit rather tenuous favourites. BUT soccerway tells us Geordies are missing Obertan, Gosling, Coloccini, Ben ArfaDaley, Cabaye, Taylor and Vuckic. . But Cisse and Ba are playing and when they play, goals are never too far behind.
HOME TEAM – -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Saints
RECENT HOME FORM – LLWDLD – only 1 win against Villa. . Have lost to 1st and 8th and drawn against 9th and 10th.
RECENT FORM OVERALL – LLLLWLDLLLDW – latest win against a poor QPR. Saints have only failed to score in 2.
GOAL TRENDS – 67% overs at home. 2 out of every 3. No clean sheets at home. Have scored by far the most in the 2nd half at home.
STREAKS – Have conceded in last 12 . Have scored in last 5 at home and conceded last 6 at home.
AWAY TEAM – past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Newc
RECENT AWAY FORM – LDDDD – the probability of another draw, and another score draw like the last 4, will diminish with each consecutive away match. . No win away .
RECENT OVERALL FORM – WLDDWDLDWDLL – talk about inconsistent. All 3 wins have come at home. Could be a chance for Geordies to get the win against such a lowly team as Saints, but then the Geordies with these injured players may be weakened.
GOAL TRENDS – 40% overs away from home. No clean sheets away. Only 1 clean sheet all season
STREAKS – 5 away without a win. Have scored in last 4 away and conceded in last 5 away. Have conceded in last 7 overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – well these 2 do not do clean sheets, so I have the prayer mat out hoping it’s 0-0 at half time so I can lay said 0-0. I did it when saints played Swansea.
From a purely probability perspective, what are the chances of a 5th consecutive score draw away for Newcastle? It surely diminishes with each match? It’s not a guaranteed angle in, but is a logical one.. The apparent Geordie injury crisis must make them opposable? Goals is the usual call with Saints matches but how blunted will the Geordies be , especially with Ben Arfa out?