26th January 2013 Football Betting Research.

Check out the odds for the first 3 FA Cup matches today -1.7 ish relays , for me, a likely tight match, possible 1-1 early doors and the away side favoured to win by a single goal if they do win.

1245pm – Stoke v Man City – 1.79 away –  With a nice gap to their next Premiership matches, these 2 will field their strongest sides. Only Chelsea have beaten Stoke at home in 20 matches.

2 1-1’s for City when visiting Stoke.

Liverpool, City and Chelsea the only teams to beat Stoke in the FA Cup since January 2010.

Stoke have only lost one home FA Cup match since 2006.  Last time City met in the Cup it was 1-1 and Stoke won 3-1 in extra time.

7 wins in last 8 for City, only 1-0 loss v Sunderland latest.

2 defeats in last 8 aways both 1-0 v Dortmund and Sunderland.

Only 1 defeat in last 14 Fa Cup matches for City was a 2-3 v United. Last 6 wins all to nil. City a little less impressive away in the Cup. No wins in last 3 aways includes that 3-1 extra time loss to stoke ( so it’s 3 consecutive away draws).

This should be a toughie for City, last 2 visits to Stoke 1-1 rather in keeping with last 3 Fa Cup aways being draws. Stoke I think are vulnerable always against the cream of the Premiership – lost to City, Liverpool and Chelsea in the Fa cup, albeit only defeats since Jan 2010.

Advantage City – they shouldn’t lose, but 1.79 tells you everything about another tough trip to the Potteries. Note the African absentees, Yaya Toure a huge miss.

3pm – Bolton v Everton – 1.7 away – 16th in Championship v 5th in Prem.

It must be  advantage Everton already before I have even started researching. 3 draws and a win in last 4 for Bolton includes a draw and subsequent win against Sunderland.

Only 3 defeats in 16 at home for Bolton saw 2 0-1 defeats and a 1-2. Bolton have reasonable FA Cup form but notice the teams who beat them – Spurs, Stoke, Spurs recently. I would put Everton in that category today.  Only 1 defeat since 2010 at home in the FA Cup was against Stoke. A 1-1 draw with Spurs, 0-0 with Wigan, and 2-1 win over Swansea last year ( they have arguably improved since then), see Bolton as capable of at least a draw today ( and the 1.7 away odds suggest a score draw).

Only 2 defeats in 19 for Everton  , one v unlucky 2 90 minute goals from Reading, the other a Fat Frank brace.  The run of 18 matches where Everton scored and conceded ended with aplomb in their last 2 matches, both 0-0 , and David Moyes will be keen to keep the clean sheets going, but seeking that goal. Only 1 defeat in last 10 aways was that fateful Reading match and could conceivably be 10 without defeat. 6 draws and only 3 wins, but that was down to the scoring/conceding habit Everton seem to have kicked.

Everton went out to reading in 2011 and Liverpool in 2012 , an 87th minute Carroll Vorderman goal for Liverpool – and remember that was a derby.

Everton have scored in 12 of their last 13 FA Cup matches.

Only Liverpool and Chelsea have beaten Everton away in the FA Cup.

It must be advantage Everton as far as the form book is concerned. They face a Bolton side in solid overall form at home, but with a record of draws and defeats against the Premiership teams.

Only 2 defeats in 19 for Everton and no longer conceding. Moyes will want a 3rd clean sheet but not a 3rd 0-0. I know little of the Bolton set up after Big Sam. As I say the 1.7 away signals a 1-1 possibly with Everton edging if there is to be a winner.

I personally cannot see Everton losing, but that does not mean they’ll win.

3pm – Brighton v Arsenal – 1.7 away – romance of the Cup? Not in recent years where Premiership teams have largely been clinical against lower league opponents. Like Everton above, I cannot see the arse losing this one. There is respite before their next fixture so the big guns will be out in force.

7th in the Championship, Brighton under Gus Poyet are going well, so well they have had only 2 defeats in their last 17 matches, albeit 9 draws , 8 of which were score draws, which offers some hope for both teams scoring today ( but to be honest, Brighton have not been facing an ” Arsenal” each week!!)

Feb 2012 saw Liverpool beat Brighton 6-1 at Anfield. Is this a hint as to the damage a top flight team can inflict upon Brighton?

They beat Newcastle 2-0, Geordies down to 10 men and the gloss of an 87th minute goal too flatters Brighton at tad. Since 2009 defeats in the Cup have come against Villa, Stoke and Liverpool, on each occasion  3+ goals have been scored.  Bar the Newcastle match ( obviously weakenend Geordie side) Brighton have been easily vulnerable against Prem sides.

Cracking home form Gromit ! Only 2 defeats at home in the FA Cup since 2006. Newcastle, though have been the only Prem side to have visited , and Brighton beat them 1-0  and 2-0.

Only 2 defeats in 11 for Arsenal were against  Man City and Chelsea.

Reading , Newcastle and West Ham have suffered huge defeats recently, so Arsenal really could let loose if everything clicks. Only 2 wins in 13 away though is poor form, beating only Reading and Wigan.

6 of Arsenal’s last 7 defeats in the Fa Cup since 2006 have come away from home, 5 of them without scoring. That , you suspect, is Brighton’s goal today. Since 2011 Arsenal have lost to United and SUnderland away, both 2-0.  Recent away draw with Swansea so close to being the win.

Arsenal have not won their last 4 Fa Cup matches away from home.

Wenger is desparate for a trophy , so desparate there’s rumours Arsenal will be joining our Local Sunday League FatBloke Cup . In the meantime, expect the first team out – there are no excuses not to play the first team with a long break to their next match. Note that recently Arsenal have scored bucket loads sporadically, and if clicking, Brighton might concede 3+ again against Premiership opponents in the FA Cup.

Only 2 defeats in last 17 for Brighton at home,and 6 of 7 of Arsenal’s defeats in FA Cup have come away, they have not won away in the last 4 FA Cup matches. So when Arsenal are away is when they are most vulnerable. Like Dortmund who scored 5 against Werder and followed that up with 3 yesterday, so Arsenal have scored 5 recently against West ham and could follow that up if in the mood.

3pm – Ivory Coast v Tunisia – 1.61 home- Ivory Coast post the second shortest price of the tournament having been the shortest priced in a recent lucky 2-1 win where they did score first. Ivorian team sheet is mighty impressive but spluttered at 1.32 first match.

Unbeaten in 23 and with 4 consecutive wins in all competitions, Ivorians have the unbeaten groove going.  Unbeaten in 10 in 90 minutes in the African Cup of nations.

6 clean sheets ended with Togo nicking a goal last time out.

Only 2 defeats for Tunisia in 14 were against Switzerland and ghana. Beaten 0-2 by Ivorians in a friendly in 2012.

Only 1 defeat in 13 in 90 minutes in the ACN was a 1-0 to Gabon in Jan 2012. 90th minute winner against Algeria rather unimpressive and you feel they’ll need an earlier breakthrough against a team like Ivory Coast.

Not much else to go on here. Ivory coast justifiable favourites but bookies tread a little warily in a tournament which is favouriing under 2.5 goals.

3pm – Middlesbrough v Aldershot – 1.36 home – 5th in Championship v 20th in League 2  – that’s the kind of gap I want to see in the Fa Cup. Only 2 draws in last 21 matches for Boro, one was a 2-2 which conceivably could have been a win/loss. This is an outstanding stat.  3 defeats in last 4 and 2 consecutive defeats they’d like to end today. Only 1 draw in last 16 at home , adn that draw was only care of an 87th minute goal.  Only 3 defeats, and 1 draw in last 16 matches at home. In all defeats and draws, Boro scored and of course conceded.

Boro have a poor recent record in the Fa Cup, only 2 wins in last 7. No draw since 2008 at home in the FA cup.

Only 4 defeats in last 18 for Aldershot in all competitions.  Only 1 defeat in last 9 away  included 4 draws.

3 wins in last 4 in FA Cup but against maidenhead, Hendon, fleetwoood and Rotherham.

7 day break for Boro between this match and the next suggests they’ll field their strongest side. What chance they avoid another draw, by getting the home win which ends a run of 2 consecutive defeats?

3pm – Norwich v Luton – 1.36 home – 13th In prem v 6th in Conference National. It should be a formality on paper but the romance of the cup blah blah blah!!

Only 1 win in last 7 for Norwich was against Peterborough in the FA Cup so it could be welcome respite again today.

Only 1 draw in last 12  at home came in last match, a 0-0 v Newcastle. Prior to that, City and Chelsea visited and won. Luton town, I would venture, are not quite the same standard as those 2.

No draw in last 8 in the FA Cup. 3 defeats in last 4 for Norwich at home includes 2 1-0 losses.

Only 1 draw in last 11 for Luton came last match. Only 1 win in last 6 away matches for Luton. Luton scored and conceded in 5 consecutive matches until a 0-0 latest.

Nice unbeaten run for Luton in the Fa Cup but not a major league side amongst opponents.

Tough to evaluate this match , apart from mentioning the obvious gulf. Hughton will have his players ready and he’ll be happy not to meet a City or Chelsea at home for a change.  Comfortable enough in the Premiership, Norwich can afford the luxury of a Cup run.

3pm – Rangers v Montrose – 1.13 home – you know the drill by now with these kinds of odds, but note Rangers have had some tight games at short prices – 2 1-0’s and a 1-1 in their last 5 all at very short prices. This opens the door for a potential enhanced bet/DRT trade.13 wins and a 1-1 draw in their last 14 matches.  9 wins and a draw in their 10 home matches, with a run of 5 consecutive clean sheets until conceding 1 and 2 in their last 2 matches. Have only failed to score 2 or more in a single match this season. 

Only 2 wins in last 7 for Montrose, highly inconsistent team. They lost 1-4 to rangers earlier in the season. They have won 4 and drawn 1 of their last 6 aways.  Montrose have conceded in 27 of their last 28 away matches.

Rangers should be able to score 4 at home if they can score 4 away. Montrose should concede, their away record is terrible.

315pm – Panthrakikos v Olympiakos – 1.43 away

HEAD TO HEADS

530pm – Man Utd v Fulham – 1.3 home – the FA Cup, Sir Red Nose usually takes this competition with relatively more seriousness than the League Cup. Only 3 defeats in last 19 for United were 1-0, 2 of which appeared in the Champions League.

No draw in 16 at home, and 14 wins out of these. Defeats v Spuds and Cluj, latterly when United couldn’t really be bothered.

In the FA Cup, all bar one of United’s recent defeats have been 1-0. Only 2 defeats since 2010 away to Man City and Liverpool.

4 consecutive home wins for United in the FA Cup and all without conceding a goal.

3 of last 4 wins at home in the FA Cup were 1-0.

Only 2 wins for Fulham in their last 17 matches in all competitions. Fulham have scored and conceded in 8 of their last 10 matches.

Only 2 wins in last 13 aways in all competitions for Fulham. 5 draws, 3 defeats and 1 win in last 9 aways.

Since 2009 in the FA Cup, Fulham have only lost to United, Spurs, Bolton and Everton.  Only 1 win in last 5 away in the FA cup for Fulham was against Accrington Stanley, Torres’s new club. Defeats away to Spurs and Everton, a draw with Blackpool and Swansea. Better teams tend to get a result against Fulham.

Team news very important. United have tended to get by by the skin of their teeth at home in the FA Cup and I expect the same today but there is a long delay to their next Premiership match so expect the big guns to be picked .

745pm – Juventus v Genoa – 1.22 home

HEAD TO HEADS

815pm – Braga v Benfica – 2.08 away

HEAD TO HEADS

STANDOUT STATS FOR THE DAY

Stoke have only lost one home FA Cup match since 2006.

7 wins in last 8 for City, only 1-0 loss v Sunderland latest.

Only 1 defeat in last 14 Fa Cup matches for City was a 2-3 v United. Last 6 wins all to nil.

Only 1 defeat since 2010 at home  for Bolton in the FA Cup was against Stoke.

Only 2 defeats in 19 for Everton  , one v unlucky 2 90 minute goals from Reading

Everton have scored in 12 of their last 13 FA Cup matches.

Only Liverpool and Chelsea have beaten Everton away in the FA Cup.

Only 2 defeats for Brighton in last 17 matches.

Only 2 defeats for Brighton in the FA Cup since 2006 but a sparsity of Premiership opponents.

Arsenal have not won their last 4 Fa Cup matches away from home.

Unbeaten in 23 and with 4 consecutive wins in all competitions, Ivorians have the unbeaten groove going.  Unbeaten in 10 in 90 minutes in the African Cup of nations.

Only 2 draws in last 21 matches for Boro.

Only 1 draw in last 16 at home for Boro.

Only 1 win in last 7 for Norwich was against Peterborough in the FA Cup so it could be welcome respite again today.

Only 1 draw in last 12  at home came in last match

13 wins and a 1-1 draw in their last 14 matches for Rangers

Only 1 defeat in last 9 for Panthrakikos. Olympiakos are unbeaten this season with only 3 draws, all score draws, all season.

Olympiakos have scored in all 18 league matches this season. Olympiakos are unbeaten this season.

Only 3 defeats in last 19 for United

No draw in 16 at home, and 14 wins out of these.

4 consecutive home wins for United in the FA Cup and all without conceding a goal.

3 of last 4 wins at home in the FA Cup were 1-0.

Only 1 win in last 5 away in the FA cup for Fulham was against Accrington Stanley

Only 3 defeats all season for Juventus.

Juventus have only dropped points against top 9 opposition. Juve have only conceded 1 goal in the first half at home and scored 15 in 2nd half at home.

Benfica have not beaten Sporting Braga at Braga in last 3 meetings there.

Both Braga and Benfica have scored and conceded in 5 of 6 head to heads.

Braga have not beaten top 4 home or away this season.

Only 3 Benfica matches all season NOT over 2.5 goals. Benfica are unbeaten this season and have scored in all matches this season.

Lots of standout stats today which will be either broken or continued.