26th September 2012 Football Betting Research

Cracking research Gromit! Great stuff yesterday from the number of goals Bayern were going to score, from Frankfurt and Dortmund both scoring, from raith possibly scoring a goal against Celtic ( they did) and even Schalke scoring in the first halfhour of their match against Mainz.

Well chuffed with that! And I don’t venture too often into the Bundesliga – perhaps I should. Dortmund look to have been fielding a Sunday league back 4! 0-3 up away from home ended 3-3 , the 2nd consecutive match in which they have conceded 3 while scoring 5 in total! Crazy times!

4pm – RVVH v Twente – 1.04 away – the Dutch cup and if Twente take this seriously, this will be a mauling, as the odds suggest. 1.04 sides usually are capable of 6+ goals but tend to peiter out once they have nailed the match after 4/5 goals. March 201o the last time Twente lost in this competition and that was to Feyenoord.

When they have scored a high number of goals ( as intimated tonight) they have scored 5 or 8, so perhaps these numbers should be in mind for tonight’s encounter. Correct scores on Betfair do not go up to 5 or 8 alas so perhaps an over 6.5 goals bet might offer the value ( if the market is liquid of course.)

Team news key as regards the strength of the Twente side.

430pm – HJK Helsinki v KuPS – 1.24 home – a chance the wheel out the Betting research template to show you for this Finnish league match, because there have been 27 matches played and the trends and patterns will be really strong. I’ll be using the Template in the Premiership soon, probably after 10 matches.

HEAD TO HEADS

Recent wins to nil for HJK and an ability to score 2 minimum in the last 4 encounters could be an angle in goals wise this evening.

430pm – Hertha Berlin v Dynamo Dresden – 1.6 home – Bundesliga 2 -I don’t generally venture so low .

Only 1 defeat so far for Hertha and they have scored and conceded in 5 of 6 matches this season. They have scored 2 goals 4 times including 2 2-1 scorelines. DWW at home including scoring 2 goals on each occasion . hertha have only conceded one goal int the first half so if you fancy the win, then the suggestion could be Halftime/Fulltime Hertha berlin. to bump up the odds, or a correct score to nil at halftime.

If Hertha are to concede then, it will likely be 2nd half.

Dresden have currently only won 1 away against bottom side and have won and drawn the other 2 matches. They have conceded in all matches this season and could do so again.

Only 6 matches to go on, but the major angle ( albeit rather weak after only a small sample of matches) is the fact that hertha have only conceded one goal in the first half of their matches this season, so are likely ( if a goal is to be scored 1st half) to score first and enter the break to nil.

Both sides tend to score and concede and I am not sure whether Dresden can score away but this might infer over 2.5 goals.

5pm – Estonia U19 v England U19 – 1.16 away – this is an under 19 UEFA qualifier so is NOT a friendly and hence worthy of some small attention. Estonia have only won 1 match in last 12 and that was a 1-0 v cyprus. Their only other positive result was a 0-0 v Cyprus again. 8 times in last 12 they have failed to score.  3-2-2-3-4-2-4-3 conceded by them in recent matches, and that ties in nicely with the 1..16 away quote for England nippers ( although how they’ll play with their hoodies on is anyone’s guess?)

all of England’s recent draws have been 1-1’s s that could be a saver? They have conceded without losing in their last 5 , although looking at Estonia , they find it hard to score.  Not sure whether this is home or away for England ( the team order differs at different websites.) If home, then England have 3 draw sequence to end today.

Nothing at all in Estonia’s make up to suggest they can stop the flow of goals conceded , and look to 3/4 as possible starters ( I am betting blind here as faras team news is concerned.

7pm – Anderlecht v RBD Borinage – 1.19 home – usually as reliable at home as Bayern are! Is this 1.19 justified and can we increase the odds with a value bet in another market? league match and 1-2 loss to Rupel Boom at home this time last year ( Anderlecht were 0-2 down and scored in the 89th minute).

Pro league v 2nd division. Not  a match I would prioritise.

715pm – Rangers v Motherwell – 2.76 away – a collector’s item this, Rangers not odds on, or anywhere near, at home. Infact, Rangers not even favourites! Motherwell are atop the SPL and rightly favs for this Cup tie against,ahem, lowly 3rd division Rangers .

DDWDWWD for Motherwell in the league and they are top. This is a toughie to call, as this Rangers side is not THE Rangers side we normally associate with. And although they are scoring shitloads, their opponents are Division 3 teams. Instinctually, lay Rangers if they score first, or chance a lay of Rangers pre match ( although the odds are a tad high) in the hope Motherwell field a strong team and continue their strong form in the SPL into this League match. I am not going to look into rangers Cup form as this is a much changed side.

745pm – AC Milan v Cagliari – 1.65 home – home goal, home goal, where fore art thou home goal? , and home win! The pressure ratchets up at home as AC Milan continue to underperform with a particularly underwhelming set of players. They are currently about as trustworthy as Arthur Daley, but this winless and scoreless home streak MUST end soon, it simply must.

4-3-1-4-3-2 scored by Milan in recent head to heads against Cagliari and they have won their last 6 head to heads. Surely this is a sign that the Milanese can end their horrific early season form?

Sequences to end – failing to score and concede in the first half of home matches

-failing to score at home.

-consecutive 0-1 losses to 2nd half goals.cagliari’s goals have been scored in the 88th and 90th minutes so are very fortuitous and signal a strong problem with scoring. This might play into Milan’s hands in search of that much needed win at home.

What price a long protracted 0-0 and eventual Milan breakthrough to send home fans away happy? Both teams have problems scoring so that 0-0 back to lay might have legs. if 0-0 at halftime, chance a lay of said 0-0 and a back of Milan at better odds? This sequence has to end, and what chance ending against a team they have beaten on the last 6 occasions.

745pm – Arsenal v Coventry – 1.2 home – the kids out in force, and yesterday’s results are proof that this Cup is generally held in disdain by the Premiership elite. City out already.  Arsenal have an excellent record in this competition at home, and when they win, they tend to score 2/3. Expect that tonight against a Coventry side on a losing streak who have not met a Premiership side recently in this competition.

745pm – Carlisle v Tottenham – 1.52 away – Spurs have not won their last 3 League Cup matches , albeit against United and Arsenal for 2 – they played premiership opponents in the 3 defeats ( 2 of which occured after extra time).

Not much to go on as it’s obviously difficult to gauge who villa O arse will pick in his team today. A suggestion that Spurs should not lose being naturally the better team, even with fringe players. Delay entry I think tonight incase of struggles from Spuds.

745pm – Chievo v Inter – 2.42 away – surprise defeat for Inter at the weekend. No draw in 8 between these 2 this season. Inter are currently enjoying away matches, winning 0-2 and 0-3. Less pressure away from home? 2.42 does not signal a 2/3 goals win to nil!!

Coincidentally Chievo have conceded 2-3-2 in their 3 consecutive defeats.  Interesting signings from Porto for Inter and Pazzani off to Milan.

Inter have won the last 3 matches in head to heads, laterly 0-2 away to Chievo.

I am going to chance a win for Inter, 0-2 today, although I must say the odds do not suggest anything like as comfortable a night for Inter. I cannot reason why Chievo are not bigger, considering their last goal at home was an 83rd minute penalty.

745pm – Man Utd v Newcastle – 1.55 home – screams out to be layed does this 1.55 as both teams wring the changes and put on an illusion of interest in this competition this evening. Newcastle will be fielding Ant and Dec, Spender, Wor jackie Milburn’s statue, and Doris the Tea maid. United will likely give Bobby Charlton a run out this evening.

745pm – Napoli v Lazio – 2.08 home – Napoli have impressed so far this season and attacking wise seem full of goals. 2 teams who started off superbly this season in their first 3 games, winning them, and scoring 3-2-3 and 1-2-3 respectively. Both teams faltered in their last match, a 0-0 away for Napoli at Catania and a 0-1 home defeat for Lazio v genoa. Napoli have conceded in their 2 home wins, and Lazio have scored in their 2 away wins.

This looks like a well matched match tonight, worth watching . Both teams obviously have goals in them, but against each other? 2-2-7-0-4- total goals in most recent head to heads and results pretty much shared. Goals an option tonight instead of opting for a specific team?

Both teams have conceded goals late and have good defences, so perhaps a 0-0 back to lay trade for the speculative as we have 2 good defences but also 2 good attacking sides. Hmmmm!

8pm – West Brom v Liverpool – 2.6 away – at first glance, goals spring to mind in this Cup clash. Team news key as ever. Who will Ted Rodgers field? Another League Cup and another likely show of disdain from managers. New manager syndrome makes this difficult too to gauge how much disdain these managers show.  best to watch and trade/bet in play dependent on what you see.