3rd April 2013 Football Betting research

Barca did what they came to do, score 2 away goals . They did not win but it’s only halftime. Might be minus Messi. That’s a huge blow.

bayern scored 2 goals yet again at home. No away goal for the italians means Bayern score 1 away goal next then Juve will need to score 4.

Devilishly tricky Champions League this evening, well the Malaga match more so than Real Ale Madras.

130pm – CSKA Sofia v Lokomotiv Sofia – 1.25 home. One for the DRT’ers. Note a short priced home team. Bulgarian Cup between 4th and 13th in the top flight.

10 clean sheets in last 13 for CSKA could be a good starting point. LDWLWW at home recently. The wins all clean sheets.

This looks to be a 2nd leg after a 0-0 in 13th March.

Only 3 wins in last 19 for Lokomotiv who have failed to score in 5 of their last 6.

No win in 22 away and never scored more than 1 goal away. Failed to score in 7 of last 9 aways.

Only wins away in Cup came in 2006 and 2007, 2 0-1’s

It looks like 0-0 might be a pre match angle in, albeit in what is likely to be a poor market liquidity wise. I wouldn’t get too excited though.

445pm – Porto v Rio Ave – 1.22 home – this is the Taca De Liga match. Porto’s only recent defeats have come in the Champions League ( 2 ) and the other Pork and Cheese Cup , a defeat to Braga. If Porto are up for it, they will be tough to beat. Like CSKA above, a noticeable pattern for winning to nil for Porto.

No defeat at home in 26. Only recent defeats came v City in the Europa League and v Lyon in a friendly.

A little less dominant in this cup.LWDWWWLWDW – Recent loss was a 3-2 v Benfica.

Only 1 defeat and 9 wins at home, the last 7 wins all to nil.

No win in last 6 for Rio Ave. 4 defeats and 2 1-1 draws.Just lost 6-1 to benfica. Will we see a reaction defensively tonight?

Lost 2-1 to Porto as recently as 23rd Feb. Rio were actually leading. Both teams have scored in 8 of Rio’s last 10 matches away from home.

Have won their last 2 in the cup v Maritimo and Sporting.

There have been red cards in last 2 Rio away cup matches. Tough to weigh up Rio as they are better in the Cup but to relate their opponents to a side of Porto’s calibre makes life difficult.

530pm – Sampdoria v Inter – 2.7 home

HEAD TO HEADS

Wed	03/04/13	SEA	Sampdoria	17 : 30	Internazionale	Odds
Wed	31/10/12	SEA	Internazionale	3 – 2	Sampdoria	View events
Sun	27/02/11	SEA	Sampdoria	0 – 2	Internazionale	View events
Sun	24/10/10	SEA	Internazionale	1 – 1	Sampdoria	View events
Sat	20/02/10	SEA	Internazionale	0 – 0	Sampdoria
Sat	26/09/09	SEA	Sampdoria	1 – 0	Internazionale	View events
Thu	23/04/09	COI	Internazionale	1 – 0	Sampdoria	View events
Wed	04/03/09	COI	Sampdoria	3 – 0	Internazionale

Inter have scored 2 and 3 in last 2 matches. prior to that there used to be a pattern of really tight head to heads.

LEAGUE POSITION – 12th v 7th. A chance to go 5th with a win for Inter.

HOME TEAM – -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Sampdoria

RECENT HOME FORM – WDLLLWWLLDWWWW – 3 of 4 defeats v top 10 at home were 0-1. The other 0-2. 0-1 v 2nd, 0-0 v 3rd , 0-1 v 5th suggests a return to the tight head to heads we used to have? 4 match winning streak, 3-1 v Roma ( the only top 10 side they beat in that run).

RECENT FORM OVERALL – DLLLWDLWDWDWWLD – heavy defeats only seem to occur away from home as showcased by the 3-2 loss to Inter already this season. good recent run sees only 1 defeat in 8 matches . Wins v 10th, 15th, 6th, 20th, and 0-0 away draws v 2nd and 15th.

GOAL TRENDS – 36% overs at home. 0.79 conceded on average. Whenever you see under 1 average then it’s a good sign. Have conceded only 4 first half goals and scored 11 goals at home in 1/4 hour either side of halftime. Score 70% of home goals 2nd half. Score first in only 7/14 at home. Draw at HT a possibility – occured in 7/14 home matches.

STREAKS – 4 match home winning streak. 2 clean sheets at home.

AWAY TEAM – past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Inter

RECENT AWAY FORM – WWWWWWLLLLDLLW – Have beaten 13th, 14th , 15th away and playing 12th today, BUT lost away to 9th and 10th. Only 1 away draw . A big concern for Inter must be conceding 3-1-3-4-2 in last 5 aways.

RECENT OVERALL FORM – LDLWDDLWLDWLL – in last 4 wins, Inter have had to score at least 2 goals. last 2 defeats at home . Do bear this unwelcome sequence in mind when Inter next play at home.

GOAL TRENDS – 57% overs away from home. Have conceded last 10 away and last 9 overall so indeed will require 2 minimum to win logically. Inter have scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches. Only 2 clean sheets in last 21 matches.

STREAKS – Have conceded in last 10 away and last 9 overall. Have scored in last 4 away

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – Inter scored 2 and 3 in last 2 meetings and as they keep conceding ( last 10 away and last 9 overall) they will need to score 2 to secure a win and a climb to the top 5. They are in dire form though. 2 clean sheets in last 21 matches suggests vulnerability. Note Inter have not lost 3 consecutive matches this season. They ended a 7 match winless streak by coming from behind to beat Catania 2-3 away ( yes 2-0 down). Sampdoria are on a 4 match winning streak and against top teams tend either to have 1-0, or 0-0. Indeed against top 11 at home we see 1 1-0 win, 3 0-1 defeats , a 0-0, a 0-2 and an anomolous 3-1 win v Roma. The latter is not in fitting with the rest of the matches. Bar this Roma win, Samp only scored 1 goal in 6 matches v top 11 at home.

Tough to call this one ( and the odds will back me up on that)

Sequences to end or continue? Inter losing 2 matches. Samp winning 4 at home

Strong stat? Samp scored only 1 in 6 matches w top 11 ( not counting an anomolous 3-1 win v Roma).

Inter have conceded in last 10 away and last 9 overall.

745pm – Malaga v Dortmund – 2.24 away – this is as tough as the odds suggest. Malaga have only won 2 of their last 8 home matches.

Malaga have had fairly easy passage into this stage of the competition, playing the likes of Porto, Anderlecht and Zenit, not quite your Uniteds, Reals, barcas is it?

Only 1 defeat was a 1-0 to Porto and Malaga reversed that in 2nd leg.

Unbeaten at home with 4 wins to nil and a 2-2 v Anderlecht.

4 wins in last 5 for Dortmund, losing to Schalke, who Malaga beat recently.

Unbeaten in 2012 CL matches, and scoring in all aways.3 score draws and a 1-4 v Ajax. A score draw more than suits Dortmund this evening of course.

They have scored 2-4-2 in last 3 aways.

Again tactics play a part tonight. Currently Dortmund score draw away which of course gives them huge advantage. I am not exactly struck by Malaga’s progress into this stage, but note they beat Schalke who recently beat Dortmund in the league.

Both teams to score this evening?

745pm – Real Madrid v Galatasaray – 1.21 home – the odds on shots led at some stage yesterday -will that continue tonight? You’d expect so with the Special needs One and a strong Real side at home.

Usual terms and conditions apply. Home team secures a win to nil and has 2nd “half” away goal advantage. Away side tries to nick an away goal and avoid a heavy defeat, knowing they have away goal advantage going into 2nd leg .

7 match winning streak for Real sandwiched between 2 1-1 draws v Man utd and Zaragoza ( one eye on tonight?)

Jan 2012 saw last defeat at home , v Barcelona. Real Madrid don’t do 1-0 wins. They win by 2+ as is standard at home.

LDDWDW in recent matches in CL but of course they are here now so they have done what is necessary. Real have scored and conceded in last 11 CL matches.

At home, in CL , in 2012 it’s WWLWDWD – and scored and conceded in last 8.

Gala have had much the easier ride into this section of the competition, a draw and win v Schalke getting them here. Schalke are not quite as renowned as Real Madrid.

Gala have scored and conceded in last 3 CL aways, v Cluj, Braga, and Schalke , winning them all.

The odds look about right here. Gala seem to have been very lucky so far in avoiding any big big clubs in this competition, but might be found out this evening. If you fancy a Real win, then note that they do not do 1-0’s at home ( I think it is against Club policy). Do be wary that Real Madrid keep scoring and conceding both in this competition ( last 11 matches overall and last 8 at home), and overall. A precious away goal for Gala?

3rd April 2013 Football Betting research

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