Cracking weekend for those of you who read the research and popped along to http://drtfootballtest.blogspot.com to make some real profits.
745pm – Sligo Rovers v Glentoran – 1.41 home – the Setanta cup so I will quickly gloss over this match as regards any real interest.
8pm – Aston Villa v Man City – 1.5 away. About the same price as United at QPR recently which ended 0-2.
HEAD TO HEADS
Are Villa warming to the task? This should not be a 5-0 drubbing.
LEAGUE POSITION – 18th v 2nd. Villa’s need the greater
HOME TEAM – -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Aston Villa
RECENT HOME FORM – LWDDLDWDLLLLW – have lost to 1st, 3rd and 6th conceding 3-4-3 and 0-0 v the Arsenal. Wins v Swans, West Ham and Reading. Already then we expect them to concede 3 at least at home to the top dogs.
RECENT FORM OVERALL – DWDDWLLLDLDLDWL- only 1 win in 10 against a struggling Hammers side. Have scored and conceded in 5 of the last 6 matches.
GOAL TRENDS – 46% overs at home. 73% of home goals scored 2nd half. Scored first in 5/13 at home. Lead at halftime in only 3/13 at home. 10 of last 11 matches over 2.5 goals.
STREAKS – 5 at home without a draw. Have conceded in last 5 at home and last 11 overall.
AWAY TEAM – past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team – City
RECENT AWAY FORM – DDWWDDWWLWWDL – defeats v 14th and 16th away. 0-0 v QPR too. Are the strugglers just too committed for the over payed nancy boys in blue? Draw with QPR and loss to Southampton both occurred in the last 2 matches.
RECENT OVERALL FORM – WDLWWLWWWWDDLW – City are floundering of late. Draws with QPR and Liverpool and the loss v Saints, a gloss put on by a well taken Barry own goal.
GOAL TRENDS – 46% overs away. City only score first in 4/13 aways and have only led at halftime in 3/13 aways with opponents only 2/13. Expect a HT draw?Dzeko the key man away
STREAKS – no major streaks.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – ask the question ” what are the chances….. of a 3rd consecutive away match, against a bottom 5 side, without a win?” and we might have an angle in today? City have only lost 2 away this season , one v Saints recently. They face another bottom 5 side with only 1 win in last 10 but at home tend to concede 3 or 4 against top top sides. The Arsenal 0-0 could be on the cards against a City side wanting to get something. 46% overs for both teams is an undecided goal trend. NO European commitments for City. 73% of Villa’s goals scored 2nd half so if it’s 0-0 at halftime we should expect one of the sides to hit the onion bag. 10 of last 11 Villa matches over 2.5 goals. This could reasonably continue against a team of City’s calibre.
830pm – Olhanense v Braga – 1.56 home
HEAD TO HEADS
Humdingers historically, plenty of goals and a chance both sides will score.
LEAGUE POSITION – 14th v 4th
HOME TEAM – -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Olhanense
RECENT HOME FORM – WLLDWDLDL – wins v 7th and 16th Have only played one of top 6 at home, losing 2-3 to Porto ( reasonable form against such a side!)
RECENT FORM OVERALL – WLLDWLLDDDLL – only 3 wins all season, last 2 of which were 1-0
GOAL TRENDS – 56% overs at home. Only 1 0-0 at home and only 2 0-0’s all season. Very strong unders credentials in recent form. 10 of last 13 matches unders. Failed to score in 7 of last 13, 1/2 of recent matches.
STREAKS – No win in 4 at home and 7 overall. Failed to score in last 3 homes.
AWAY TEAM – past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team – -Braga
RECENT AWAY FORM – DLWWLWLDD – 3 away draws all score draws. Defeats v 3rd, 8th and 10th. Have not played 13th-15th inclusive away but beat 12th 1-4 and drew 3-3 with bottom side.
RECENT OVERALL FORM – LLWWWLWLDLDW – a little inconsistent of late but against bottom 7 home and away, have played 7 matches, scoring 4-4-3-4-3-3-1 . Ultra consistent performance v strugglers both home and away
GOAL TRENDS – 44% overs away from home. No 0-0’s for Braga home or away.Have scored and conceded in last 7 matches.
STREAKS – Scored in last 10 overall and conceded last 7 overall. Scored in last 4 away and conceded in last 5 away. NO win in 3 away.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – First thing to note is BRaga’s consistency re bottom 7, scoring 3 and 4 goals regularly. Will this continue this evening? No win in 3 away for Braga could be a sequence to end tonight v an Olhanense side who have only 2 wins all season, BUT have only played one of top 6 at home ( that was a 2-3 v Porto). Speculators will be looking for goals here despite a poor Braga goals trend. It must be said Braga are in poor form of late but have consistently good results v bottom 7 which might supercede said recent poor form? Vulnerable to scoring and conceding so a neutral goals bet might pay off, and if you fancy being speculative base it around the over 3.5 goals mark?
830pm – Sevilla v Celta Vigo – 1.56 home
HEAD TO HEADS
Sevilla at home 2 consecutive wins to nil. Celta win 2-0 at their place last time out
LEAGUE POSITION – 12th v 18th. Celta in the drop zone
HOME TEAM – -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Sevilla
RECENT HOME FORM – WWLWDWLLWWWW – nice winning streak v 9th, 15th, 16th and 20th so good form against lesser lights at home – have scored 3 against 16th, 19th and 20th
RECENT FORM OVERALL – LLDLLWLDWWLWL – last 3 defeats, all away, against top teams such as Valencia, Real Madrid and Barca.
GOAL TRENDS – 67% overs at home. scored 61% of home goals at home. Scored first in 8/12 at home. Led at halftime in 7/12 at home.
STREAKS – no draw in 7 at home. Have scored in last 6 overall and conceded in last 4 overall. 4 match home winning streak. 5 consecutive overs. Scored and conceded in 5 of last 6. Only 3 clean sheets in last 20.
AWAY TEAM – past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Celta Vigo
RECENT AWAY FORM – LLLLLLWLLLDLL – only 1 win away was a 0-1 v 17th. 1-0 defeats away to 13th, 14th, 15th and playing 12th today
RECENT OVERALL FORM – WDLLLWLDDLLLW – -last 2 wins were home. 6 of the last 7 losses were 1-0 so Celta just losing.
GOAL TRENDS46% overs away from home. score first in only 3/13 aways and have led at halftime in only 1/13 away. Have only scored 4 goals from 30th minute onward away
STREAKS – no win n 6 away and have conceded in last 12
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – Sevilla will either score 3 as they have agaisnt bottom sides ( and Celta conceded 3 away to 8th and 9th), or this is going to be tight, as 6 of Celta’s 7 losses were 1-0. Celta are likely to concede as they have done in 12. Celta’s last 2 matches saw both teams score and Sevilla’s recent matches have seen both teams score.
An intriguing match in which an argument can be made for a comfortable 3 goal score by Sevilla or an uncomfortable probable 1-0 home win. I would prefer congruency.