No major shocks yesterday. I must draw your attention to the Dortmund match. If we concluded pre match that Manchester City could not afford to lose this match, then what should be do, when Dortmund take the lead?
yes, we should lay Dortmund ( in this case, lay them because they scored late), and keep faith in the conclusion that City simply could not afford to lose.
Indeed City equalised. And this is how we create value bets in play. Like Juventus yesterday, City now have 2 draws and must win their next CL fixture. Stick that in your diary! Must wins tend to win.
Real Madrid scored 4 again, and Ronaldo got 3. Arsenal won 3-1 but took until the 42nd minute to score. Arse are looking good .
Europa League dominates today, and if you think the CL is difficult……!
5pm – Anzhi Makhachkala v Young Boys – 1.4 home – this Anzhi is chock full of attacking talent and Young Boys come from a league of only 10, a very uncompetitive league. Instinctively, the odds are right here.
Anzhi are unbeaten in their last 9, with 7 of those wins. 8 wins and a draw in last 9 at home in all competitions.
In their 2012 Europa campaign Anzhi have won 6 and drawn 1, and kept 6 clean sheets in those wins. They nearly kept a clean sheet against Udinese but for a 90th minute equaliser.
1-0, 2-0, 1-0 at home -they are relying on defence and looking to nick that goal it would seem.
The Young Boys faced a Liverpool 2nd strong and lost 3-5, so don’t get carried away with them scoring 3 against a Premiership side. IT was not THE Liverpool premiership side.
2012 wins in the Europa League against Zimbra , Kalmar and Midtjylland .
The bookies have been offering generous odds in European competition ( Chelsea, real Madrid spring to mind considering they managed to score 4) and this 1.4 looks generous given the general poor away opponents.
Will Anzhi keep a clean sheet and increase the scoreline from the typical 1-0, 2-0 at home? Team news important as they might be tempted to rest some first teamers as Liverpool did. Obvious that Guus Hiddink is focussing on clean sheets for Anzhi and dependent on the team they keep out, we could eek out some value with a win to nil correct score.
5pm – Rubin Kazan v Partizan Belgrade – 1.4 home – a 2-2 away draw with Inter Milan could have been a win but for a 90th minute equaliser. Only 2 defeats in Rubin’s last 21 home matches in all competitions augurs well. 4 1-0’s and a 1-1 in last 7 matches might signal tightness in defence . 3 of those 1-0’s were defeats though.
The last home match was a 0-1 defeat by Olympiakos in this competition.
The Russian league should be more competitive than the Serbian shouldn’t it? Only 1 draw in Belgrade’s last 25 matches in all competitions should leave us 2 choices – a home win or away win! The odds point to a home win, the value call naturally in a 50/50 shout is the away win ( but how likely is it?)
The sole draw was a 0-0 home draw against Neftci in this competition.
Only 2 wins in the last 11 EL matches for Belgrade were both 1-0 home wins . A recent 1-1 away draw with Shamrock Rovers should relate to you where Partizan are on the food chain!
Poor away form too in the EL, 6 defeats, a draw and a win v Zilina , in the last 8, does suggest the home team has this in the bag, if Belgrade continue to avoid draws as astutely as they have been doing. I can’t get an angle on likely scoreline.
6pm – FC Basel v Genk – 1.82 home – you normally expect Basel to be in the Champions League group stage, but not so this time. A 0-0 v Sporting Lisbon the only result to go on regarding recent EL form.at home in 2009 and 2011 they lost 2-3 on each occasion. The probability of this happening again is miniscule although we’ll get little value in laying a 2-3 scoreline!
Genk have won their last 2 EL matches to nil against Luzern and Videoton at home. I don’t know how strong these teams are compared with FC Basel. Only 1 draw for genk in all of their EL campaigns since 2000. I suppose the most relevant match in which to weigh up Basel, is in genk’s 0-3 and 4-2 defeats to Porto, another erstwhile Champions League team.
I can’t help but be reminded of Basel’s CL run last season and how playing at that level should make them strong in the lesser Europa League. There is little to go on from basel’s perspective though with only 1 0-0 v Sporting Lisbon.
The absence of a draw for Genk largely in their EL matches might be an angle in?
Not top of my list of matches to get involved in today.
6pm – Lazio v NK Maribor – 1.38 home – the bookies/market makers like this 1.4 (ish) quote for home sides today. On paper, a Seria side against a side like Maribor should easily bring in the odds, and they look good things like Anzhi and Rubin Kazan.
Only 1 draw in Lazio’s last 14 matches was a Europa League 0-0 v Spurs. 2-3-3-0-2 scored by Lazio in recent home matches in all competitions.
In recent times, Lazio have lost only to Sporting Lisbon and Athletico Madrid in this competition. 6-2-1-2-1-3 scored at home in the EL from 2011 to date for Lazio suggests they can keep up the goalscoring record. The only loss was the aforementioned against Atl madrid.
Maribor are a Slovenian side who beat Panathanaikos 3-0 at home. DLLDLLLW in recent EL matches for Maribor. LDLLL away from home and they have failed to score in 3 of 4 recent away defeats.
Based on this, it looks as if Maribor will not be able to make a dent into Lazio. Their win over Pana, those, was quite a surprise though.
6pm – Metalist v Rapid Vienna – 1.4 home – there it is again! Another 1.4 home but I’m afraid I haven’t the first clue about the relative merits of either side. Form will not bring much up as it is difficult to quantify the sides.
6pm – Panathinaikos v Tottenham – 1.87 away – Greek team at home equals dour defence? Look for possible Spurs changes with a Prem match at the weekend. DDLLDD for Pana in their last 6 games in all competitions is poor against a Spurs side who are buzzing after beating Man Utd at Old Trafford. Typical Greek scorelines of 0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 3-0, 1-1, 0-0. The 3-0 loss was against Maribor in this competition.
4 consecutive draws at home. That is a sequence which will end soon. But today? Against Premiership opposition?
Spurs are unbeaten in their last 7 in all competitions and have scored 3-0-2-3-3 in last 5. The 0 was a 0-0 against Lazio in the Europa League. Spurs have won their last 3 away matches in all competitions, scoring 3 on each occasion.
Recent defeats to Rubin Kazan and PAOK ( another Greek side) in the EL. Tough to equate Spurs EL form, wins against Shamrock Rovers away hardly a surprise.
This is all about team news for Spurs. A strong Spurs side should engender some confidence . Pana have a 3 draw home sequence to end – tonight?
805pm – Atl Madrid v Plzen – 1.27 home – home side have a fine pedigree in this competition and we can be assured that they take the competition seriously. 16 wins and 3 draws in last 19 in all competitions for Madrid , and are we really expecting this unbeaten sequence to end tonight, at home, in a competition they actually want to win?
4-4-4-3-2-4-1 scored in recent matches for Madrid.In 2012, at home, Atl Madrid have only lost to Real and barcelona. 13 consecutive wins in the Europa League for madrid and 10 consecutive wins at home. Plzen are a czech team who are solid enough domestically. WWWWLWW in the EL in 2012 is quite good but they have been playing the likes of Rustavi, Chorzow et al. You get the idea.
I would plump for Atl Madrid scoring 3 ish this evening and maintaining a winning sequence. These sequences always end, and I suspect will end when they meet teams like Real Madrid and barcelona, not Plzen.
805pm – Liverpool v Udinese – 1.69 home – judging by the team we saw against Young Boys, look out for Liverpool changes this evening in a trickier encounter. Di Natale is the danger man for Udinese. Liverpool have scored 5-1-2-5 in their last 4 matches. They scored 5 against young Boys. Team news key and that makes a preview difficult. Only 1 defeat in their last 20 Europa League fixtures sees a Liverpool side with a good tradition in the competition. No defeat at home in the EL since 2010. There is a sequence as follows DWDWD – if this sequence is to end, then it’s to something other than a win tonight. 4 clean sheets and an 85th minute consolation in their last 5 at home sees Liverpool focussing on defence in this competition.
5 draws in last 6 for Udinese includes a 1-1 draw against Anzhi care of a Di Natale 90th minute equaliser. DDLDD away from home
DDDWLWD in last 7 EL matches for Udinese. Only 1 recent defeat was against AZ Alkmaar.
Udinese have only won 1 of last 9 Europa League away matches and that was against PAOK. this suggests that Liverpool should not lose this evening. Udinese could be layed but I suspect their odds are a tad high.
Again, Liverpool team will temper enthusiasm or increase confidence.
805pm – Marseille v A.E.L. – 1.36 home – another near 1.4 home quote. Will these matches have similar characteristics to the others? A recent unbeaten run of 12 ended with a 4-1 away loss to Valenciennes for Marseille. Unbeaten in their last 8 at home, and 6 clean sheets in their last 7 shows where marseille focus.
An interesting sequence for Marseille in the EL at home through 2009, 2010 and 2012 of LWLWLWD – winning alternate matches. If this continues we’ll see a win tonight.
Only 1 loss in last 9 for Marseille in this competition. 2 consecutive draws now and this is priced to end this evening.
AEL are a Cypriot side and surely they are not strong enough to trouble Marseille today. 3 consecutive draws for AEL includes a 0-0 v b Mgladbach in this competition.
Both sides are on these draw sequences. Are they likely to continue this evening? The last time AEL were in the EL was in 2002 so not much to go on re them.
Marseille are in cracking form and tend to keep clean sheets at home against the right opponents. AEL failed to score against Mgladbach, and, being Greekish in origin, are likely to focus on defence.
A 0-0 saver incase they put up stubborn resistance.
805pm – Newcastle v Bordeaux – 2.56 home – Newcastle have now been written off in their last 2 Premiership matches, and they have not lost them thanks to Demba Ba. Look for team changes this evening for the Geordies. We must see the big 3 attackers playing for the Haway the Lads.