11am – Lokomotiv v Kuban Krasnodar – 1.63 home – 4th v 8th after 10 matches. Only 2 defeats for Lokomotiv this season were 3-1 away and 2-3 at home against 10th and 13th.

Lokomotiv have been quite consistent at home, scoring 2-1-2-2-2. Strangely, they have struggled at home against bottom 4, losing 2-3 and drawing 2-2. Likely Lokomotiv can continue their goalscoring today- they are priced to do so. Kuban’s problems are quite clearly away from home. 4 wins and a 2-2 draw at home , but 4 defeats and a 1-2 win away. No draw away yet for Kuban. kuban have naturally conceded in all away matches, and Lokomotiv have scored nearly 2 in all home matches this season.

Loko have scored in all matches this season, Kuban have conceded in all bar 1 this season. All bar 3 of Loko’s matches this season featured over 2.5 goals, and all bar 2 of Kuban’s

ANGLES IN? Traders note Kuban tend to concede and Loko tend to score so if Kuban score first, they are likely to concede. The longer the match goes 0-0, the better odds we’ll get about there being a goal. Keep the faith that the goalscoring and conceding continues? Lay 0-0 at low odds late.

The scoring of 2 at home, and the concession of 2 away seems to pervade, so correct score searchers perhaps look at a derivative of 2 goals for the home side.

11am – Urawa v Sapporo – 1.18 home – 3rd v 18th after 27 matches, and included because 1.18 usually suggests an easy 3/4 goals win , possibly to nil.

Only 10 points to show for Sapporo this season says it all. Sapporo have lost every away match this season, and interestingly against 2nd and 4th, lost 4-1 away which falls perfectly into the correct score expected by a 1.18 quote.

Urawa have had a problem with 2nd bottom, drawing 1-1 and 0-0 this season and they only beat Sapporo 1-2 away. Do these strugglers set up in a way which does not help Urawa’s style of play?

Only 2 defeats at home for Urawa suggests worse case today will be something like a 1-1 draw.

Urawa have not won their last 2 at home, drawing 1-1 to 4th bottom and losing 0-5 to 3rd bottom. To reiterate, they have not beaten bottom 4 at home this season. value seekers will look at this 1.18 and lay it, with minimal concern re low liability.

Only 2 clean sheets for Sapporo this season suggests they are more likely to concede at some stage. I have certainly seen better 1.18 shots.

Positives? Sapporo have lost all away this season. They lost 4-1 to 2nd and 4th, Uwara are 3rd.

Negatives ? urawa are DLD against the 3 of the bottom 4 they have played at home. In fact they played 4th bottom ( 1-1) and 3rd bottom (0-5) in their last 2 matches at home.

Usually 1.18 suggests a simple win, but Uwara are in a sticky patch at present .1-1 would be a value back, 1.18 a value lay.

1245pm – Man City v Sunderland – 1.31 home – do note this is an end to a Champions League week, but surely City have plenty strenght in depth that this will not be detrimental. Instincually, the words ” heroic defeat” spring to mind here with Sunderland under O’Neill likely to offer stubborn resistance.

But that does limited form say for this season?

4th v 13th.

Sequences always end, and Sunderland’s draw sequence ended with a 1-0 home win against Wigan. Note Stephen Fletcher has scored all of Sunderland’s goals this season. An over reliance on one player should be a big concern to a club. Snuff him out and the threat is eradicated. Mancini I hope will have noticed this and targeted Fletcher for special attention.

As a Sunderland fan away , I would be concerned with this over reliance on one man.

City have scored and conceded in all matches this season. At home, they have scored 3-3-1. The 1 was against Arsenal and quite frankly was not unexpected. Dare we assume City will revert to the “3” today?

City have scored 5 and 3 in last 2 head to heads, the last a 3-3 draw .

Do we have a template as to what to expect from Sunderland today, from their 0-0 away heroics at Arsenal? 0-0 perhaps a value starting point for this match?

The goals times make interesting reading. What I note firstly is that Sunderland have not scored in the last 1/2 hour this season, and City have scored 7. So in play delayers, if this is 0-0 at the 60 minute mark, back City to be the team to score if a goal is forthcoming.

City’s 3 goals at home were scored against QPR and Southampton. I don’t think we can safely lump Sunderland in with those sides.

For me this looks like it could be tight, although the problem is City have score 8 in last 2 home meetings with Black Cats.

I don’t know if Sunderland will score today, as an over reliance on Steven Fletcher might hinder in a match where they will have limited possession. 0-0 best case for Sunderland? And backable initially to stay in for as long as you dare.

60 minute mark, if 0-0, expect City to come through.

230pm – B Munich v Hoffenheim – 1.18 home. If I was the Hoff coach, I’d look at the BATE video. How could BATE win 3-1 against Bayern?

4-0 and 7-1 last 2 home head to heads. Hoff in for a torrid afternoon if these are replicated , as the 1.18 quote suggests they will be.

12 consecutive Bayern wins ended with the shock BATE win mid week. Sequences ALWAYS ALWAYS end. Will Bayern’s 6 game winning streak in the league end this afternoon?

Bayern have conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches at home ( this sequence ended with a clean sheet last match at home). Bayern have scored 2 minimum in their last 7 home matches. Bayern are devastating either side of halftime, scoring 4 before and 7 immediatey after halftime.

I did not see Mario Gomez mid week against BATE, and that would concern me as he is such a superb striker, if he is absent today.

Hoff have scored in all away matches this season, and interestingly have scored 3-3 in their last 2 aways. With bayern conceding at home regularly, Hoff seem capable of getting on the scoresheet.

5 of Hoff’s 6 matches this season were overs. 0-0 last match though against Augsburg.

Provided there are no mid week hangovers, expect Bayern to resume scoring 2+ goals per match. Possibility of conceding though means a correct score to nil is difficult. Over 4.5 goals for the speculator?  Mandzukic to score? He’s been hitting the onion bag regularly.

230pm – Schalke v Wolfsburg – 1.46 home

Only 1 defeat for Schalke so far this season was at home, 0-2 v Bayern. Only 1 win for Wolfs in direct contrast and that was an extremely lucky 0-1 90th minute goal against Stuttgart in their first match of the season.

Taking the Bayern match as anomolous, Schalke have scored 2-3-2-3-2 in their other matches. Yes they have drawn 2 matches 2-2, and in both cases were 1-2 up and 2-0 up. Sloppy therefore in defence, or complacent when ahead?

Traders should note this rather bad habit  – if convinced to back Schalke initially  they should trade out if Schalke lead at any stage.

Wolfs have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches this season. Schalke have only conceded 1 goal in the first half this season, Wolfs have conceded 6, so expect Schalke to open the scoring if there is to be a first half goal.

In head to heads, Wolfs do not lose at home, but at Schalke they have failed to score in last 2, and conceded 4 in February’s H2H.

There seems no reason, currently, that Schalke should not continue scoring at least 2 minimum. They are careless when ahead so traders get out if Schalke lead. Wolfs have not scored in 4 of last 5 which might indicate a win to nil for Schalke, based at around the 2-0, 3-0 marker?

3pm – Chelsea v Norwich – 1.24 home – patent pending 1-0 late Chelsea win a la Stoke, or a more convincing win a la Nordsj mid week?

Quite superb transfer spending by Chelsea could consign Naaarwich to a tough afternoon.

This is 1st v 18th currently . Chelsea’s only aberration was a 0-0 away at QPR , sandwiched between International Break and the Champions League, as well as being a local derby. They have just had the Champions League mid week, and it was a good pipe opener against Nordsj.

I was going to mention how Norwich fared well defensively against Spurs ( 1-1) and Newcastle (1-0) but then that went all Delia with a 2-5 mauling against Liverpool. And I fear this may set a precedent now for Chelsea who have arguably the better side. The maximum that Chelsea have scored this season has been 4 against Reading, and 3 of those were 2nd half goals.

This looks one of the more obvious matches this weekend. Do watch out for “wounded animal” syndrome. We are likely to see a strong defensive reaction to conceding 5 at home last match.

Value? I don’t really know how to bump up the odds. Chelsea to score 3+ goals?  First goalscorer? Well, ladyboy Torres has scored 2 of her 3 goals at home this season?

3pm – Swansea v Reading – 1.99 home – Swansea are imploding at the moment – will that continue against another promoted side?

5-3-2-0-0-0 – Swansea’s goalscoring record has suddenly plummetted? Perhaps Reading are the team the Swans need in order to break this scoreless sequence which has inevitably resulted in 3 consecutive losses.

2-2-3-2 conceded by the Swans in their last 4 matches.

Reading have their own winless sequence to end. They have scored and conceded in 4 of their 5 matches this season.  AS I said with Swansea perhaps meeting the right side, well Reading have played Chelsea, Tottenham and Newcastle with the scorelines 4-2, 3-1, 2-2. Swansea are not really in the category of Chelsea, Spurs, or Hawaythelads. So, I feel Reading are meeting the right side at the right time in order to help end their winless run.

This is a toughie to call, it really is. What chance, perhaps, that both teams will score  – at least then the Swansea goalless run will end at least and Reading will have a chance of winning.

But for 2 2-0 losses, Swans would have all over 2.5 goals. Reading have had 3 of 5 overs, so I’ll go for neutral overs too, ( he said sitting on the match odds fence).

3pm – West Brom v QPR – 1.83 home. Odds sound about right here considering West Brom dispatched of the 2 scouse sides with what was, on paper, relative ease. West Brom have not conceded in 3 wins at home so far. 

It’s difficult to read QPR – why? Well QPR’s last 3 matches were against London opposition, 2 2-1 defeats and a 0-0 against Chelsea. In this context, perhaps it was cavalier to expect QPR to be easily winning these Derbies.

QPR have scored in all 3 away matches to date. QPR have faced Spurs and Man City in 2 of their away matches so again we should not be too shocked by 2 defeats. West Brom are at a lower level.

Premiership head to heads were 1-1 QPR home draw and 1-0 West Brom win. They’re relatively tight in the premiership, and with QPR seeking their first win, and West BRom not conceding at home, perhaps we should expect a tight nervy ( from QPR’s perspective) match today. West Brom’s last win was 1-0 at home.

West Brom have not scored and conceded in the first half hour so far this season, and with me having just expected a tight affair, then the hope is that a 0-0 back to lay trade could be successful for half an hour at least ( cue Odemwingie 1 minute opener).

If this gets to a 2nd half match, then advantage West Brom as QPR have not scored in the last 1/2 hour so far this season.

3pm – Wigan v Everton – 2.08 away – I like Everton this season

Yes Wigan have played Chelsea and Man Utd and inevitably lost. Other matches, Sunderland, Fulham were winnable but Wigan lost. Wigan have only beaten Saints this season, and that does not seem enough to worry a strong Everton side.

The first thing I notice here is this is a “game of 2 halves ” – Wigan have scored 80% of goals in the 2nd half, Everton have scored 75% of goals in the first half  and conceded 83% of goals in the 2nd half. Wigan have only scored 1 goal in the first half.

This “game of 2 halves” suggests that if  Wigan can stay in the match until the 2nd half,  then they will have a realistic chance in the 2nd half , if these goal times are an accurate reflection this season..

Form wise, Wigan have only beaten Southampton this season. everton have only been bitten  by West Brom, and have , recently, scored 3-0-2-3-3.

The last 3 head to heads at Wigan have been 0-1 , 1-1, 1-1 . But remember this is a post transfer window and a most un-Everton like 3-0-2-3-3 scored in matches recently.

Which pattern will out? Tight unders of history, or Everton’s recent goalscoring ( courtesy of Anichobie and Jelavic of late).


5pm – Galatasaray v Eskisehirspor – 1.49 home – Gala have seen a real resurgence of late.

2nd v 7th and Gala are on equal points with top side with a game in hand. Gala will be top with a win at home today.

Gala won the 2011 home head to heads and have scored 3-4-2 in last 3 head to heads wins.

Gala have scored 2-3-3 at home in 3 wins to date

Eski have not drawn yet this season with LLWWLW -note they have won 3 of their last 4 matches. Both sides have lost to top team Orduspor 2-0 away this season – that was gala’s sole loss and Eski’s sole match against teams currently higher than them in the league.

The last match for both sides ended sequences. Gala ended a scoring sequence , and Eski ended a sequence of conceding.

2-3-3-4-3 scored by gala prior to meeting 1st in league last match. Will this be resumed today? The odds should be lower if bookies were confident .

ANGLES IN? Watch out, Eski are 3 wins in last 4. BUT they have lost sole match against a team higher than them in the league. Gala love scoring against this lot 3-4-2 in last 3 head to head wins. If  Gala win, they go top.

I am retiscent about going full steam on Gala simply because Eski have won 3 of their last 4 matches.

530pm – West Ham v Arsenal – 2.1 away. Remember we must acknowledge that this is a London Derby. For  me Arsenal are a new team this season and the post transfer signings really are class! They had to be though after RVP’s departure. His worth is clear!

Due deference to West Ham. They have , like Arsenal, only lost 1 match this season.Home wins against Aston Villa and Fulham without conceding, then a 1-1 draw with Sunderland, courtesy of a Colleen Nolan 90th minute equaliser.

West Ham have won both of their London derbies this season, 3-0 v Fulham and 1-2 away at QPR. Arsenal have won the last 4 head to heads, the last 3 without conceding, and we know this season how Steve Bould has sharpened Arsenal defensively. We must take account that the head to heads are not really ultra recent given the Hammers went down.

Arsenal have not won their last 2 matches, but then they were playing Man City and Chelsea, and scored ( and conceded ) on both occasions.

It is obvious that West Ham are nowhere near the level of the 2 above mentioned teams.  The teams West Ham have played this season, Villa, Swansea, Fulham, Norwich, Sunderland and QPR are not near Arsenal’s in reputation or quality. I feel the Hammers might struggle with this quite obvious step up today. What they have on their side in the London derby aspect.

The bookies have been way off ( well Betfair market makers) particularly with Newcastle in their recent matches. I feel that Arsenal are priced to high to ignore. Delaying entry might even increase the Arse’s odds. Their signings are mouth watering. No wins in last 2 understandable against top 4 sides.

7pm – Lille v Ajaccio – 1.53 home – here is one team who have been negatively impacted by the recent transfer window. £40 million man Eden Hazard was a top scorer for Lille last season, and Premiership fans know full well his value.

This is 15th v 10th and we don’t normally see a favourite which is lower in the league than their opponents.

Only 2 recent head to heads for these 2 in 2011 and 2012. 2-3 to Lille away win and 4-1 to Lille home. But that was pre transfer window.

Lille have scored and conceded  in all bar their last match ( a loss) this season. They have goals in them , and with 4 score draws, ( 3 of which Lille scored first), they are leaking points. Only of Lille’s 2 defeats this season was a 1-2 against PSG, and with the cash PSG have to spend that was not unexpected.

Ajaccio have beaten the current bottom 10 sides 1-0, 1-0, 2-0 -not conceded. Ask yourself whether Lille are in a current false position. Let’s face it, 4 matches were score draws.

Lille have scored and conceded in all 3 home matches this season, and no wins at home yet.

830pm – Benfica v Beira-Mar – 1.17 home – another 1.17 shot and another 3/4 goals win to nil?  Top v bottom after 5 matches so perhaps this is justified. 

Benfica have won the last 4 head to heads 2-1 and 3-1 at home.

2-5-3-2-2 scored by Benfica this season. If this ends 0-0, I’ll video myself walking down the local high street in my Mum’s Sunday Best.

All of Benfica’s matches this season have been over 2.5 goals.

Beira – mar have conceded in all matches this season, and only failed to score against Porto this season in a 4-0 loss. Benfica and Porto are similar sides, and 4 conveniently falls within the scoreline expected of a 1.17 shot.

DLDLD for Beira Mar this season – the draws all score draws at home, the defeats away 3-1 and 4-0.

Over 4.5 goals a possible if these patterns continue? Both teams could score. this looks the most likely of the 1.17 shots today.