well done PSG, you do exactly as your 1.16 quote suggested. Score 4 goals and keep a clean sheet. If only all teams could be as readable. Enhanced bet anyone? Man City in a must win go 0-2 down at home, and remember they have not lost at home in the CL yet. Those of you lucky enough to get on at 0-2 would have been delighted with the equalisers.

Real Madrid in over 2.5 goals at home shocker! Nice to see both sides scoring too. And last night will be the night you can tell your grandchildren you witnessed Olivier Giroud score a goal for the Arse. Inevitably Theo Walcott was involved in the other goal.

The biggest shock for me last night was a 0-0 in the Kiev v Porto match – the joys of the Champions League.

Tonight we have more Champions League football . Last night we saw 2 1.5 shots at home both get 2-2 draws.  How will the short priced favs at home fare tonight?

10am – Hiroshima v Sapporo – 1.16 home – Top v Bottom and on soccerstats.com so worth a look at. 1-3 away win for Hiroshima in the only relevant recent head to head fits in with a 1.16 quote ( 3/4 goals scored and a possibility of a win to nil).

3-2-3-0-4-0 scored by Hiro at home against bottom 7 sides. They have the capability of scoring the 3/4 expected of 1.16 shots but have failed to score twice, latterly 0-1 loss to 2nd bottom.

4 of Hiro’s 5 defeats at home came against top 10 sides.

No win in last 3 matches includes 2 away draws and a home loss to 5th in the league.

Hiroshima are actually far stronger away from home where they are undefeated in 12 matches.

Hiro have only failed to score in 5 all season so the likelihood is for them getting on the scoresheet.

Sapporo have got 3 wins and 2 draws at home and only one positive, a win away , 1-2, to 3rd in the league and that was on the 6th October.

Against 2nd to 10th away, Sapporo have conceded 4-1-1-3-3-21-5-4. Again the capacity is there to concede the kind of goals you’d expect a 1.16 to score.

No draws away for Sapporo and no clean sheets either away. They average 3.13 conceded away.

there are warning signs here ( a recent Sapporo 1-2 away win v 3rd, and Hiro losing 0-1 -albeit 3rd May- against 2nd bottom) but there are hints in Hiro’s goals scored at home against bottom 7 and Sapporo’s away concessions against top 10 to consider 3+ goals for the home side.

Another slight negative is the winless sequence for Hiro in their last 3.

You’re either with the 1.16 or you’re not!

 

1230m – Bulgaria U19 v Andorra U19 – 1.03 home – this is a UEFA under 19 qualifier so not a friendly.  Andorra have scored only 2 in their last 12 matches , so the expectation is for a win to nil. Bulgaria are in poor form with no win in 7 matches.  In the Euro qualifiers they have drawn 1-1 with Hungary and lost 2-1 to Austria despite scoring first.

Andorra have lost 3-0 to Hungary and 9-0 to Austria.

1.03 – you expect a mauling.  5-0 might be a good starting point for bumping up the 1.03 odds.

745pm – B Munich v Lille – 1.2 home – Valencia, Bate and Bayern are all on 6 points in Group F. Valencia and bayern are short odds on shots at home tonight and BATE are away to valencia.

This is a must win for Bayern in such a tough group. Lille are yet to get a point.

9 clean sheets in their last 11 for Bayern and no draws since July 2012 see a Bayern in blistering form.  A recent 8 match home winning streak ended with a 1-2 loss to Leverkusen.

a 2-1 home win against valencia was more comfortable than the scoreline suggests. 2-0 up until the 90th minute. A 3-1 away loss to BATE was an absolute mystery for me. I enhanced bet Bayern that night but they could not find the onion bag.

A 0-1 away win against Lille latterly was care of a penalty which suggests a very tight match.

Bayern are unbeaten in 9 at home in the CL and have had only a single draw in 19 home CL matches. 3 defeats and a draw recounts that they tend to win!

2-3-3-2-2-2-3-3-7-2-2-1-2 scored in recent home CL matches. Only 1 goal scored against Chelsea in a 1-1 draw.

3 defeats in the group stages for Lille, their last 2 defeats without scoring were 2-0 away to Valencia and 0-1 at home to Bayern.

2 2012 away fixtures have seen Lille unable to score.

2-0 looks an obvious starting point tonight with Bayern likely to dominate possession. 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 are suggestions to bump up the odds, and hope on Lille finding it difficult to score as they have done recently in the CL.

This is a must win, remember, for Bayern, what with valencia playing at home and equally as favoured in the market.

745pm – Benfica v Spartak Moscow – 1.59 home

745pm – Braga v Man Utd – 2.32 away – my close show biz pal, Alan, got 2 goals against United which contributed to an excellent delay entry trade as United staged the almost inevitable come back. A United win books their passage into the last 16.

Only 1 win in last 6 CL matches for Braga might see them vulnerable this evening.

unexpected defeat to Cluj at home, a nice away win against Galatasary and the 3-2 loss to United where Braga were 0-2 up sees them behind the pace in group h.

1-1 v Udinese and 0-2 loss to Cluj at home so far in 2012 for Braga.

3 wins out of 3 for United, although they have conceded in their last 2 matches.

the loss away at Basel last season should be a wake up call for United in this campaign. Previously away, United have only been beaten by Barcelona ( twice) and Bayern Munich. United have only failed to score away from home in the CL twice since 2009 so there is a good chance, especially with RVP on fire, for at least a goal this evening.

The odds relay difficulty from the bookies in picking a likely winner, and these kind of odds point to a 1-1, 1-2 kind of a scoreline.

745pm – Celtic v Barcelona – 1.32 away – a chance for Glaswegians to watch some football for a change rather than the usual Sunday League tripe they have to put up with. Celtic have been surprisingly sturdy in this Champions League.  Celtic have only won 1 of their last 4 in all competitions. They scored first at the Nou camp and almost inevitably lost the match 2-1 as if it was preordained.

The defeat to Barca ended a run of 7 matches unbeaten for theBhoys.Celtic are unbeaten in the CL in 2012 at home, albeit against the likes of HJK, Helsingborg and Benfica. That latter was a 0-0 and perhaps serves as a template for tonight , as Benfica have a distinct attacking threat.

9 points already for Barca and a win will cement their qualification as if that was ever not going to happen. 9 points already. Celtic are fighting for 2nd place where they have a lively chance.   This is the 125th anniversary of Celtic and that could be a fillip for the side tonight.

Barca’s only recent defeat was a 2-1 supercup defeat to real Madrid. Celtic are no Real Madrid.

Only 1 defeat for Barca in the CL since March 2011 was a 1-0 Chelsea win. Barca have scored 2-3-2-2 in their last 4 matches.

barca have failed to score in 2 of their last 3 away matches, against Milan and Chelsea. Celtic are hardly on the same planet as those 2.

745pm – CFR Cluj v Galatasaray – 2.68 home. We had these odds last night in 2 matches. One finished 0-0 and the other 1-0. The odds do rather suggest a tight encounter.

745pm – Chelsea v Shakhtar – 1.99 home – this is a must win match for Chelsea , with home advantage, and Juve facing an apparent easy task at home ( see below).  Ashley Cole is a big miss, as could be David Luiz and Juan Mata.  Chelsea have performed miracles in previous must win matches in the CL – see last year.  The 2-1 away loss to Shaktar was comprehensive enough. 2-0 for a long period.  That was Chelsea’s only loss in 9 matches. Only 2 defeats at home for Chelsea in the CL, were 0-1 v Inter and 0-1 v Man Utd since 2008 sees Chelsea taking confidence from home advantage surely?  Chelsea were 2-0 up against Juve at home last time before Juve got 2 goals.

The Chelsea home win against Benfica was lucky to say the least.

Shaktar beat Nordsj at home 2-0, drew 1-1 with Juve and beat Chelsea 2-1. They are in good nick in 2012. Their ability to keep winning domestically must increase confidence .

Not the best record away historically in this competition. Recent losses against Barca, Porto and Zenit followed a win away at APOEL and the 1-1 with Juve.

this game is all about home advantage and I cannot see Chelsea losing the match. 1.99 could relay a tight encounter with possible 1-0, 1-1, 2-1 kind of scoreline.

Must wins usually do win – right? How weakened are the Chelsea back line with Luiz and Cole possibly out? And how much of a miss is Mata if he does not play?

 

745pm – Juventus v FC Nordsj – 1.16 home. PSG were identically priced last night and won 4-0. 4-0 is the perfect scoreline for such a short match odds quote. Will Juve oblige in what is looking like an utterly dour CL campaign for the Old Lady. What is going wrong with the Old Lady? Arthritis in front of goal?

Since 2008 in the Champions League Juve’s form reads thus ( W=win, D=Draw, L=Loss), DDLDDDWW ( both 1-0), LLDDD

3 consecutive score draws are all but quenching hopes of continued CL action – luckily though Chelsea are ballsing it up too allowing a glimmer of hope to Juve.

Juve conceded first in those score draws  but will they really be vulnerable against the weakest opposition in the group?

9 successive draws in Europe – not by my reckoning, but that’s what the UEFA website recounts re Juventus. That’s surely a sequence which must end?

Poor form at home sees a solitary 1-0 win against Maccaibi Haifa at home for Juve in 2009.

Nordsj must have been delighted with a 1-1 home draw against Juve, after losing and failing to score against Shaktar and Chelsea.

Juve must revert to old Italian ways and defend tonight and then rely on their forwards. 1.16 seems extremely optimistic for me, given Juve have recently been scoring late late goals in Seria A.

Another Must win? No value angle in as I am wary of Juventus’s very poor form. Of course 9 consecutive draws is a sequence which must end, and there is no better time than against a poor Nordsj side.

745pm – Valencia v BATE Borisov – 1.29 home – another in a long line of odds on favs in tonight’s Champions League. With 3 teams on 6 points including BATE, this is a must win for both sides. The market of course favours the home side.

Valencia have only conceded once in their last 4 matches so come into this match in good shape, particularly beating Atl Madrid 2-0 at home at the weekend. No draw for Valencia in recent Champions League matches.

2 consecutive clean sheets and a 2-0 and 0-3 sees them obviously favourites. 0-3 was against this side courtesy of a Soltado hatrick.

No defeat in last 7 at home in the Champions League

3-1 wins for BATE against Lille and Bayern Munich put to an end with a 0-3 away win for Valencia.

Which BATE shows up tonight? A feeling that Valencia, the 3rd best team in La Liga, will have too much at home this evening in a match which is yet another MUST WIN!