Good stuff yesterday.

Today is largely under 21 and reserve matches, but I’ll look at some of the obscurer leagues – research practice more than anything! These are not the leagues I normally focus on.

1pm – Sibir v Spartak Nalchik – 2.42 home – this is the Russian FNL – I have heard of these 2 teams but haven’t a clue about this league. 2nd v 4th .

Sibir have won their last 3 matches, 2 away and a 1-0 home win.

At home, they have been terrible.DWLLLW – notice the 3 match home defeat ending. The away side are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, and have kept a clean sheet in their last 4.

4 of their last 5 away wins were 0-1 so if they are to win today, it’s going to be tight.

ANGLES IN? – well this is not a match I will be playing. Angles in? well the away side have shown a penchant for clean sheets. The home side are in poor home form with a recent 1-0 win ending a 3 match losing sequence. It looks like a tight unders match this one. 0-0 back to lay?

430pm – HJK Helsinki v Honka – 1.49 home – 2nd v 8th in this 12 team league and a chance for top spot with a win today. I’ll do the betting research template with this one, as 26 matches into the season.

HEAD TO HEADS – DWDW for HJK at home . WDLLWDW in last 7 head to heads.

LEAGUE POSITION – 2nd v 8th, HJK top with a win today.
HOME TEAM – -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team -HJK
RECENT HOME FORM WWWWWWDDWDWWDDW – a few more draws creeping in, but unbeaten at home.
RECENT FORM OVERALL – LDLWWWDWDWD – unwelcome DW sequence at present which means they’re leaking points in alternate matches. If this sequence continues of course, it will be with a W. Unbeaten in 8 .
GOAL TRENDS – Average 2.2 goals scored per home match.Only 47% home matches over 2.5 goals. Have scored and conceded in 7 of last 8 matches.  UUUOUOUUO – where u is overs and o is unders – at home is rather inconsistent.
STREAKS – 15 at home without defeat, 8 overall. Have scored and conceded in last 4 matches.
AWAY TEAM – past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team – HONKA
RECENT AWAY FORM – LLLWLDWLLDL – on the last 4 occasions Honka have won away, they have not conceded. What is the likelihood of keeping HJK, a team averaging 2.2 at home, out? If HJK score, therefore, the pattern is for Honka NOT to win.
RECENT OVERALL FORM – WWDLLLWDLLD – intermittent wins and in the last 4 matches Honka have scored 1-0-0-1 – trouble up front?
GOAL TRENDS – 0.79 scored on average away.
STREAKS – 4 away without a win and have conceded last 4
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – incentive may out here. HJK need to win to go top. Honka have only really won matches when they haven’t conceded. HJK average 2.2 at home and are thus unlikely to be kept out. A tendency to throw in the odd draw in head to heads and in recent form suggests the only way Honka will get a draw is with the 0-0 – insurance bet?
It looks advantage HJK here but I cannot really nail a value bet. HJK have scored and conceded last 4, so perhaps 1-1, 2-1, 2-0 correct score although I would not be ultra confident ( I prefer correct score bets when there is a hint that it will be a win to nil)

 

6pm – Sparta Prague v Banik Ostrava – 1.34 home – Sparta have won the last 4 head to heads , scoring 2 minimum and not conceding.

5th v 16th ( bottom) today.

Sparta have lost their last 3 matches 1-0 away, 2-1 home and 1-0 away. They have now conceded in 8 of their last 9.A 6 match home league winning run ended last match with a 2-1 defeat where Sparta opened the scoring in the 2nd half with a penalty.

Playing the bottom side affords an opportunity to end this unwelcome losing sequence.

Only 1 win in last 10 for Banik suggests the best they could hope for is a score draw.All of their 5 draws in that run were score draws. They are on a 2 match 2-2 score drawing run.

Banik have scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches. But remember Sparta are 4-0 in head to heads without conceding.

WDLD in last 4 away matches includes a 3-2 defeat and they have scored 2-1-2-2 in last 4 aways. Does this mean that Banik can continue scoring against Sparta Prague?

ANGLES IN? Well we have Sparta on a 3 match losing run. This must end, and why not against bottom side? Sparta have won last 4 head to heads, scoring 2 minimum and not conceding.

BUT banik have scored 2-1-2-2 in last 4 away matches ( although I cannot check which position their opponents are relative to Sparta in the league table.)

We could perhaps speculate on both teams scoring here ( going against head to heads but placing trust in recent form) and this therefore opens up the overs punt. Watch Banik too – they could score first if continuing their scoring form away. Expect Sparta to hopefully reply (  I say hopefully, as 3 match losing streak could plant seeds of doubt).

Those seeking value could argue for an opposition of such a short priced favourite based solely on recent league form, and you’d have to ignore comprehensive wins in head to heads.

630pm – Levadiakos v Panthrakikos – 1.69 home – only 5 matches in is not really enough to get an ultra confident angle in. Is there anything to justify the home team’s odds on quote?

Current 14th v Current 15th. Levadiakos have failed to score in 4 of their 5 matches this season but beat 2nd placed Panionis 3-0 at home rather randomly!

Panthrakikos have scored 1-0-0-0-1 this season and are poor too. Neither of these sides have played substantial matches against sides in the bottom half.

Yes, I remember we’re only 5 matches in, so these bottom 10 are only bottom 10 after 5 matches – could just be a poor start to the season.

With the very barest of form, 0-0 could be a real goer here? These 2 are both newly promoted. Last head to head saw Panthrakikos win 3-1 at home.

Again I see no reason why Levadiakos are so short, bar the 3-0 showing at home against current 2nd placed. Levadiakos . Lev have only conceded 1 goal at home in 3 matches, and that was against PAnathanaikos, no shock there.

I would plump for advantage home side, in a low scoring dullfest, with little confidence

715pm – FC Koln v Dynamo Dresden – 1.8 home – German Bundesliga 2 match. Head to heads rather redundant -last one 2005. When 2 teams meet for the first time in a while , it is difficult to read the match. It could be something quite simple as Dresden playing in such a way which makes Koln not play to their best.

Only 1 clean sheet between these 2 all season so far. Also, 2 wins a piece, Dresden’s coming against current bottom 3 ( these 2 are bottom 4th and bottom 5th).

koln have won theirlast 2 against current 7th and 9th – first wins of the season. They are in the “winning groove” currently.

Only 1 defeat for Koln at home was against current 4th .

Have Koln hit an element of form just in time, and can they continue that form?