Some toughies in the Premiership this weekend sees teams, on paper, well matched. I hope you find the research useful. There are few matches played, which makes patterns and sequences a tad weak, and little in the way of current form to go by. I have listed the key points and I hope they will be validated.
I think once October breaks , I will pull out my betting research template for all leagues which are featured at www.soccerstats.com. I hope it will narrow the focus to key betting markets and better expose key stats, patterns and sequences which can assure we make a few quid.
1030am – Volga Nyzhnyi Novgorod v CSKA Moscow – 1.66 away – talk about a contrast, WLLLLLDL plays WLLWWWWW, 6 of CSKA;’s wins without conceding. The inference here is that they concede, they lose!
Volga have lost all of their matches against current top 9 ( after 8 matches), and CSKA are 2nd in the league. CSKA have lost against 4th and 9th, and scored in both of those defeats.
16 matches between these 2 and a single draw. No draw for CSKA. Can we safely discount the draw. This will leave the home win or away win, and the home win is unlikely based on current form. CSKA have scored 2 and 3 in the 2 meetings between these 2 sides and the form does not suggest a shock today.
( of course sequence and pattern seekers see a home side without a win in 7, and an away side with 5 wins and no goals conceded). These sequences always always end, it’s just a matter of when. There is nothing to suggest today is the day.
Volga have scored in their last 3 so might score today ( and if so will it keep up the pattern of CSKA conceding and losing?)
1245pm – Swansea v Everton – 2.46 away – these 2 have identical form – win your first 2, draw and lose your next 2. Even the losses and draws are identical at 2-0 defeats and 2-2 draws. Aston Villa ended the Swans goalscoring sequence of 2+ and that was because Villa themselves were at home, and reacting to scorelines such as the 1-3 Everton win, by really tightening up in defence.
The question now is whether the Swans have been ” sussed out” and tamed, or whether there is an injury to a forward player such as Michu who has scored wheneverthe Swans have scored. Everton won the last 2 meetings 1-0 and 2-0 and you get the feeling that their greater experience and nouse could see a repeat, but will the Swans really not score for a 2nd consecutive match?
Swansea have 5 “sidelined”. Of particular interest in this came, from an injury perspective, is jelavic for Everton.
Difficult to weigh up Everton away, with a 2-0 defeat to West Brom and a 1-3 win away to Villa.
I would seek to oppose Swansea here I think. Although Everton are missing a key centre forward, I think they have too much know how to trouble a club newish to the Premiership
Interestingly, Everton have not conceded in the first half of matches yet, and Swans have conceded 3 out of 4 in the first half. 0-0, 0-1 Everton first half?
Everton have scored 5 of 6 goals in the first half, hence the 0-1. The hour mark has seen the Swans score 4 so be careful of a late “bite”, you traders.
230pm – Hamburg v Dortmund – 1.63 away. Dortmund have done very well in keeping goal machine Lewandowski. He continues to find the onion bag with regularity. As regular readers know, I love Dortmund at home. How are they away though? Well they are playing a Hamburg side without a win this season and whose sole home match was a 0-1 defeat to Nurnberg, who Dort drew 1-1 with away Hamburg broke their goalscoring duck with 2 ( 45th and 63rd minute) goals in their last match, but have a tricky encounter against likely title contenders. Dortmund have scored 3 and 5 in their last 2 head to heads and the suggestion is another away win. Only 4 games in, but Dortmund’s goals are concentrated in the first half. They have only conceded 2 , in the 31st-45th minute and 51st to 75th minute. If there is to be a goal, highly likely that Dortmund will get it first half. This might suggest HT/FT Dortmund to “bump up” the odds?
Hamburg have scored 1 in each of their last 3 head to heads, so if Hamburg score first, well you know the drill, lay them or back Dortmund.
230pm – Schalke v B Munich – 2. away – Bayern have won the last 3 head to heads and 2-0 last 2 meetings. Schalke have scored 2-3-2 this season and Bayern 3-6-3 this season. Only 3 matches to go on alas, but it doesn’t take a thick Z list TV celebrity to suggest goals here? Schalke have only scored once in the first half, Bayern have exactly 6 first half and 6 2nd half. The first goalscorer, if there is a first half goal, could be bayern ( although I reiterate that looking for pattterns after 3 matches only is not the ideal). Perhaps we can get a hint from recent home defeats for Schalke – 1-2, 0-2 against Bayern and Dortmund are suggestive of what might occur today.
Schalke scored in 15 consecutive home matches ( post 0-2 Bayern match).
Advantage bayern for me, with their power in the transfer window. Between October 2011 and march 2012 though, in 9 away league matches, Bayern won only 2.
Will this be put to bed? If Schalke score first, I will trade. I would look for goals first half and 2nd half and over 3.5 goals for a trading angle ( hope this is not a snore draw 0-0!)
3pm – Celtic v Dundee – 1.2 home – 5th v 12th, a European distraction last week brought about a shock 1-2 loss for Celtic. This should be good news for skinny odds backers as the Bhoys, currently 5th ( and a game in hand) can go 2nd with a win. CEltic are on a run of 3 without a win in all competitions. And I suspect this will not be a 4th consecutive match without a win. Celtic have drawn their last 2 home matches in all competitions, another sequence likely to end today. These 2 have not met since 2009. So it’s Champions v newcomers.
Dundee have lost 4 of their last 5, but a shot across the boughs with a 0-1 away win against Hearts. If they are to win today, that will be the scoreline I would suggest. Dundee are struggling to score away 0-0-1 so far and a Celtic team which can keep Benfica quiet, should have no trouble today?
Celtic have conceded 2 goals in their last 3 matches. Again this is the type of sequence we would like to see end. Expect a tightening up in defence ( much like Villa last weekend).Dundee have scored in their last 2, albeit only 1 goal , one of which was a penalty. They should not score 2 today against Celtic.
Celtic have conceded 6 in the 2nd half as contrasting with 1 in the first half. Dundee have the feel of a team tough to break down but eventually capitulating. They have conceded 3 in the 1/2 hour to 45th minute and 4 in the last 1/2 hour of matches.
This points to Celtic scoring first. I hope there’ll be resistance, but Celtic have scored 3 times in the first 15 minutes. I hope for a win to nil – it is possible and will be far more appealing than 1.2 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 and hope the Bhoys shut out Dundee as they did Benfica.
3pm – Chelsea v Stoke – 1.39 home – sequences galore! 0-0 for Chelsea must be put in the context of a Champions League week following. Stoke now have 4 consecutive draws. As I write in my newsletter, ” what are the chances of that happening again?” Asking this question helps uncover likelihoods unlikely to occur ( I sound like warmonger Donald Rumsfeld!!)
We have Stoke’s 0-0 against Arsenal and 1-1 against Man City as current templates regarding what to expect today. A rearguard action! Well fancy that, head to heads point to a 1-1, 0-0, 1-0 last 3 meetings. Who’d have thunk it!!!
If you expect Stoke to be tough to beat, then lay Chelsea at 1.39 -the last Chelsea win was via a Drogba 69th minute goal. back 0-0 pre match and hope Stoke park the potteries bus. Those betting in sequences can wait for as long as possible if there is a draw, and then lay said draw at the lowest odds possible in the hope the 4 draw sequence ends today for Stoke.
What might scupper a tight scoring match is the new signings for Chelsea, Oscar the Grouch and “the dukes of ” hazard. Oscar has already shown how lethal he can be. These are the 2 players who might end a pattern of strong under 2.5 goals
Interesting stat from the Racing Post is that Stoke have not won any of their last 11 away league matches. That is a sequence which will end soon. I would perhaps include a 0-1 insurance bet into any other bet I would be considering today. At odds of 29, it should not impact too much on other bets.
2-0 and any unquoted are the shortest odds correct scores – the market expects Oscar and Hazard to break the unders pattern! If you disagree, then laying any unquoted at 6.2 might allow for trading, the longer the match remains 0-0,
3pm – Kryliya Sovetov v Zenit St Petersburg – 1.44 away – I like to focus on teams I am drawn to during a season, and Zenit are one of those teams. Kryliya have had no luck at home against top 3, and have lost 3 and drawn 1 against top 5 and Zenit are 4th. Krylia have scored in their home encounters against 1st and 3rd, 1-1 and 1-2 loss. zenit’s only losses have come at home against 1st ( I pointed this out last weekend and 8th). They have beaten 2nd , drawn with 3rd and beaten 16th away. Krylia are bottom 6 so should present little resistance for Zenit.
Zenit scored 3 and 5 in head to heads last season and 1.44 suggests a capability to get at least 3 ( they have scored 3 twice away this season). I can’t sniff out any real upset here. Krylia could score so if they score first, we’ll get better odds about laying them and / or backing Zenit.
3pm – Peterborough v Wolves – 2.26 away – I don’t venture too often into the Championship but I have noticed Wolves winning of late so I’ll follow them for a bit. 2 consecutive wins for Wolves, and 2 goals scored in each sees them in a good place , visiting a Peterborough side who have lost all this season. All 3 defeats at home were 1-2 and it would be highly anomolous were this 1-2 sequence to continue for a 4th consecutive match ? 2.26 for Wolves does suggest, if they do win, it will be a “one goal in it” scoreline.
this 1-2 is the key pattern – the probability of another 1-2 is small don’t you think? peterborough will not continue losing. That is another sequence. Usually the match odds market indicates when a team has a chance of ending their losing sequence. 2.26 for the “favourite” here could be such an indicator. Apart from scoring first against Millwall at home, Peterborough have been 0-2 down at home in their last 2 home matches and their goal was late and characteristic of a “consolation” goal.
3pm – Southampton v Aston Villa – 2.54 home – 3-2-3-6 conceded by Saints so far – oh how they’d love a Le Tiss to score more than the opposition! Since losing their first 2, Villa have now drawn away to injury hit Newcastle, scoring first, and beaten Swansea at home 2-0, keeping that clean sheet which was so craved for.
It’s always tough to get an angle in when a newly promoted side comes up. The Saints have already made me a wedge by leading against Man utd and Man City. I am very skeptical however of Villa’s powers of recovery if they go behind. We must see a defensive reaction soon by the saints to their conceding 2+ in each match and we might see it today in light of the 6 conceded against Arsenal.
Beware the wounded saint!Saints seem vulnerable before halftime and fulltime, conceding 9 goals in that period ( might be skewed by the Arse scoreline though).
But my question is, who are Villa’s attackers? Any takers? I can’t even name them without looking it up. Darren Bent is still there ( boy he’s gone under the radar, Agbonlahore, Benteke ( new signing) and Bowery. Only Bent is the proven forward here.
Interesting the Saints are rather tenuous favourites for this match.But are Villa entering a period where focus is on defence? Not a match I can really get an angle into -I was happy with Saints v United and City, and will leave alone unpredictable Villa here.
3pm – West Brom v Reading – 1.84 home – the 2 scouse outfits dispatched with ease at home – surely 1.84 is a value price here? West Brom put right by Fulham, only after a red card. Their form at home is excellent 2-0 and 3-0 v Everton and Liverpool. Odemwingie is an absentee for West Brom today. There were 5 different scorers against the Scousers, so perhaps there’s no cause for alarm. Steve Clarke instilling a tough to beat at home attitude to the Baggies? Reading I don’t think were expecting much change out of Chelsea and Reading and indeed they didn’t get anything. They may put up some resistance against A West Brom side who have scored all bar one of their 6 goals in the 60th minute + of matches. This suggests that if the match was 0-0 at halftime, then we should enter the market and look to goals. Or wait as late as possible in the expectation of another late goal fest from the hosts.
Reading managed 2 goals against Chelsea in their sole away match , which is very interesting. It suggests they can perform away, and perhaps both teams to score could be a goer ( although how much of an impact the absence of Odemwingie has is anyone’s guess – as I say, 5 different scorers for the Baggies in their 2 home wins).
I would certainly lay Reading if they score first. They led away at Chelsea . And I would look to 2nd half action here if barren at halftime.
3pm – West Ham v Sunderland – 2.2 home – like Stoke, Sunderland have a very unwelcome 3 match draw sequence which they will be looking to end. 3 clean sheets in 4 for the Hamsters sees 2 clean sheets at home. big Sam obviously making sure Hammers are tough to beat. Andy Carroll seems to be sidelined for West Ham which is a big blow. Sunderland have not won any of their last 12 away matches in all competitions , suggesting a draw ( not another one! ) the best they can hope for? Steven Fletcher is the fly in the ointment here. A post transfer window acquisition who is clearly thriving. He could be the hope for Sunderland in ending their draw sequence positively.
It would seem to me that West Ham at home will be difficult to score against , and if they keep Fletcher quiet, then the Hammers have a good chance of another home clean sheet. With odds so tight, laying Sunderland might afford us a chance here, although we have a convergence of sequences for Sunderland to end – 12 without winning away, and 3 consecutive draws.
Hmmmm! The market is telling. 0-0 is 11, 0-1 is 12, 1-1 is 7.4 and curiously, any unquoted is 13 , which nearly replicates 0-0! Cor Blimey, that’s a messed up correct score market.
I was going to recommend perhaps a lay of Sunderland in the match odds, and a back of 0-1 in the Correct score market ( due to the sequences), but the correct score 0-1 odds are rather low.
Interestingly for both sides, the 2nd half sees least goalscoring action. Only 1 conceded by Hammers 2nd half and none scored and only 2 conceded for Sunderland 2nd half and none scored. Most goals first half bet? ( remember I am not working on many matches so patterns are weak – I just thought I’d point out this anomoly.)
3pm – Wigan v Fulham – 2.46 home – on paper it’s obvious. Fulham, when setting foot outside of , erm, Fulham, turn reverse-super hero like, into the very worst Sunday league side and are automatically opposable. 3-0 to Man City and 3-0 to West Ham ( for goodness sake, they were still in London!!), sees the traditional Fulham away failures still strong. It is amazing that no manager has tried to solve this. Wigan at home, have lost 0-2 to Chelsea and drawn 2-2 with Stoke ( so near to a 2-1 victory but for Peter “crouchy” Crouch. ). Defeats to Chelsea and Man Utd, and a loss and draw v Saints and Stoke suggest Fulham are within the Wigan comfort zone.
Fulham’s last 7 away wins in the Premiership all had one characteristic – they did not concede. They have conceded twice within the first 10 minutes already away. Wigan scored a 5th minute penalty in their last home match but tend to score their goals late. Fulham have not conceded in the 2nd half this season, so if you think that Wigan might struggle getting an early goal ( apart from a penalty or set piece) then a Fulham clean sheet might be conceivable and therefore an unlikely Fulham win?
Understand?
Wigan have scored 1 in the first half this season ( a penalty)
Fulham have conceded none in the 2nd half this season.
Fulham tend to win away only when keeping a clean sheet.
Ergo, if fulham survive to halftime, they might be able to see it through. Yes, I’m not convinced either given their away record!
No draw yet for Fulham this season. and one draw for Wigan, which was a successful trade as it was a 2-1 for a while. Perhaps laying the draw at 3.45 and backing 0-0 insurance at 11 might have a chance ( again the 0-0 odds are a tad short for me).
315pm – Asteras Tripolis v Platanias – 1.61 home – I think Platanias are newcomers to the Super league so might be worth opposing ? What does the form have to say? Very interesting, we have here, like Doxa last season, a team in Platanias who are as Greek as they come. 0-0, 2-0 (home win), 0-0 tells all about dour defence. This will be Platanias’s stock and trade this season. Keep it tight as , and try to nick a goal. This immediately suggests a back of 0-0, although the market has sussed it out too, offering a measly 7.8 about no goals.
Asteras themselves have conceded only 1 this season. They did beat Kerkyra 3-0 at home which might scupper my 0-0 heroic plan. My faith lies in Platanias continuing to be really hard to beat, and us getting some mileage out of the measly 0-0 back to lay.
4pm – Bastia v Paris St-G – 1.69 away – PSG well worth following this season, with the spending they have done. Head to heads are unlikely to be of any use given said transfer spending by the Parisians. Bastia have conceded 3 in their last 3 matches including 2 consecutive 3-0 defeats. Ibra and co are likely to have a field day ( but odds of 1.69 do not suggest so!). At home, 2-1 and 0-3 for Bastia.
5 of PSG’s 6 goals have been scored by Ibra. and this is a dangerous precedent. Quite simply, you keep Ibrahimovic out of the game, and PSG’s goals will dry up. 0-0 and 1-2 for PSG away so far with at 1-2 reliant on the boy Ibra. 1.70 or thereabouts, usually suggest a 1-1, 1-2 type of scoreline.
When PSG have scored this season, they have scored 2 goals. Perhaps they can manage 2 again today.
This match, for me, revolves around Bastia having the nouse to keep Ibrahimovic quiet. We saw last season with Arsenal’s over reliance on Van Parsley that when he failed to score, Arsenal suffered. I hope I can watch this game if it is televised to decide whether Ibra is tamed or not.
6pm – Levski Sofia v Pirin Gotse Delchev – 1.08 home
645pm – Vitesse v Heracles – 1.65 home
645pm – Waalwijk v VVV – 1.52 home
745pm – Juventus v Chievo – 1.36 home – I like Juventus and they showed their class against Chelsea mid week. 2-4-3 scored by Juventus so far this season, 7 goals away from home! this sees them in fine fettle. 2 more against a team like Chelsea away suggests Chievo hold little chance. Chievo have conceded 2 and 3 in their last 2 defeats. Not much action in the transfer market. Importantly, no key players let go of. Only 3 matches this season played, so not worth dwelling too much on the form suffice to say that this should be plain sailing for the Old Lady , fat Lady, or whatever they call Juventus. Look for them to continue to score the goals. Although 1.36 does not suggest 3/4 goals ( sub 1.2 would), look for 3 goals again provided Juve do not suffer the midweek hangover.
4 consecutive draws in head to heads is worth noting . 2 consecutive score draws in home head to heads . Will these sequences end, or do they suggest that Chievo have one up on Juventus? throws a slight spanner ( well small wrench) in the works. Suggestion for 2nd half action here if Juve’s goalscoring in 3 matches is an indicator. 7 scored in the 2nd half and all of Chievo’s goals scored in last 1/2 hour. if 0-0 at halftime, fear not, and get stuck in.
Angle in? well it’s a choice between this season form ( 3 matches) as against head to heads where Juve have scored 1-0-1-2-0-1 in recent head to heads and their record is WLDDDD. So does recent exceptional goalscoring supercede no win in 5 head to heads ?A lay of chievo naturally would cover any draw although at 13 it’s a tad high. Another angle in could be goals in the 2nd half if it’s 0-0 at halftime.
745pm – NEC Nijmegen v Willem II – 1.43 home
830pm – Porto v Beira-Mar – 1.18 home – they got Hulk angry, and they didn’t like him when he’s angry, so he has departed. That’s a big miss for Porto.Porto have scored 7 in 2 matches without Bruce Banner, so they are not missing him that much at first inspection. 3-0 in Porto’s last 3 home head to heads. Surely that won’t happen again ( but strangely, 1.18 suggests 3/4 goals win to nil). Perhaps chance a 4-0 just to break this 3-0 sequence?
Beira Mar are drawing at home, but suffered a solitary 3-1 loss to Braga.
9pm – Barcelona v Granada – 1.07 home – the Real Madrid 3-0 win when Granada visited them, is the angle in for this match, Young upstart Leo Messi ( watch out for this guy, I think he might have a future in the game) , has scored 2 goals in 3 of barca’s 4 matches this season. Perhaps chance a hatrick being scored today . The Betfair market for Hatrick scored is SHOITE at the moment, so a bet struck with the bookies would be better.
Alexandre Song and Jordi Alba are new additions to Barca, but the key factor is that the big boys all remain. Iniesta injured, a huge miss. Pique and Puyol are sidelined, so says soccerway, and that’s the first choice centre back pairing gone.
1-07 as you know suggests 3/4 goals minimum and a possible win to nil. My only hope is that Granada will go 0-2 up , just to offer us some value.
CALLING ALL MUGS CALLING ALL MUGS
My usually favoured multiple will include a lot of lays and a team backed as a banker. Here I will chance a speculative mug punter multiple of teams I think, based on the research above, have a chance of winning.
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Possible spoilers? Bayern’s away form is poor but they have made solid signings and a solid start. if they lead at any stage in the match, take out an insurance bet by laying them in play to win your multiple stake.
PSG might be a spoiler here too, because if Bastia keep Ibrahimovic quiet, then where will PSG get the goals? Possibly back 0-0 as insurance here?
Stoke have 4 draws and could get a 0-1 win against Chelsea to end their draw sequence, but oscar the grouch and the Duke of hazard would be the 2 I rely upon to prize open stoke and nail a traditional late 1-0 home win! 0-1 insurance bet here?
To reiterate, it’s a bit of fun and the odds are very high. It is a multiple I would manage in play if the early matches see the team winning at some stage inplay.