A masterclass in the “joy of trading” in the Spartak v Celtic match. Celtic backers over the moon as they scored first. Spartak got back to 2-1 up so enhanced Spartak backers over the moon. Then Celtic backers over the moon as Celtic win 2-3. They won again, but not 0-2. Well done the Bhoys.
Shock of the night was Bayern Munich. I did not see Mario Gomez up front -was he injured? 2-0 down to Bate afforded us an enhanced trade which was not successful. Ribery’s goal was just too late. Note Bayern for their next match which quite simply is a must win.
Ditto Juventus. 2 draws now. Delayed entry saw Shaktar score first – lay them or back Juve. Juve equalised but 2 draws is a worry. I have my eye on their match v Nordsj which should be easy money. Chelsea replicated their scoreline ( minus the concession) v Zilina last night, scoring 4 and making their pre match 1.38 extreme value ( it should have been 1.18 or thereabouts).
United’s match -well it was tight , a 1-2, I went for 0-1 or 0-2 . Interesting isn’t it how 1.71 shots have a chance of winning but have to fight for it. Good to see van Parsley out.
Braga’s result was a surprise, and peterborough have well and truly put that winning sequence to an end, scoring , now, 7 in their last 3 away matches. They now have a long drawless sequence which I’ll be looking at .
Some tough puzzles in part 2 of the Champions League this evening. I don’t think I’ll research all matches as they are so difficult to decipher.
I cannot upload Betfair’s main site at the moment so can only work off Betfair Lite so the matches are in alphabetical order rather than Chronological and are by competition , again, rather than time.
745pm – Ajax v Real Madrid – 1.5 away – under normal circumstances, Dutch sides have a tendency to get found out at this higher level. That’s my initial impression, but what does the form say?
In head to heads, this has been as easy as you like for Real, 4 wins, 2 minimum scored, and none conceded.
4-3-3 scored in 2010 and 2011 meetings.
ajax’s only recent defeats were a 1-0 against Dortmund ( 87th minute) and in the Dutch Super cup v PSv. Domestically of course, Ajax are used to not losing.
Their performance against Dortmund was encouraging in such a cauldron.
as recently as December 2011 , Real won 0-3 at Ajax, followed by the Dortmund loss. Ajax seem to struggle against these better sides . They did beat dinamo Zagreb home and away but that’s hardly the same as Real Madrid.
In ajax’s last 4 home matches in the CL, Real have visited, and won 0-3 and 0-4. You would expect Real to be priced a lot lower if this historical result is to play out again.
Which planet is frank De Boer on? He says Real have been struggling of late. Yes, frank, dear, 2-1, 3-0, 1-0 loss, 3-2 v Man City win, 0-2 ,8-0, 5-1. Frank, you crazy fool, they have been struggling …..NOT TO FECKING SCORE!
Perhaps I’m being a little harsh. Away from home, yes, Real have lost to Barca, Getafe and Sevilla in their last 4 matches.
Only 1 Real defeat in their last 14 CL matches care of a 90th minute goal for Bayern Munich. Real won the 2nd leg.
Only 1 defeat in last 12 away matches in CL was that 2-1 v Bayern Munich. 4 clean sheets in last 6 matches, could have been 5 but for a late CSKA 90th minute equaliser.
So, Frank, where the feck have real Madrid been struggling me old mucker? I can’t see it. Clutching at straws me thinks.
Is a clean sheet likely against for real Madrid? I suspect with them dominating possession, their play just doesn’t ” play” to Ajax’s strengths.
Note the 1.5 quote does not suggest a 0-3 replication, but you can never discount Ajax. Away goals here do not necessarily count as this is a group stage and the real 3-2 win over Man City must be built upon, particularly with City facing a toughie v Dortmund today.
I have the Betfair coupon up now so back to chronological order.
This is a tough match and I doubt I can get an angle in, but let”s have a look.
The UEFA website points to 2 sides who are lacking form and 2 sides not winning their opening matches in the CL, which makes this a must win, and therefore tighter than a gnat’s chuff.
Only 2 wins in 8 for Zenit include an easy Cup assignment. Zenit are unbeaten in their last 3 and have scored and conceded in those 3 matches.
2 defeats and a draw in last 3 home matches. How long can Zenit continue at home without winning? I noted their 2 match losing sequence when I researched their recent home league match and indeed they drew it, ending said losing run.
Zenit have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 CL matches, and have lost the last 2, v Benfica and malaga, to nil. They scored 3 against Benfica at home which is anomolous in the context of no goals in 4 other matches.
Zenit have been in the CL in 2008, 2010, 2011 and only lost 1 in 9 matches, keeping a clean sheet in 5 of their last 7 home matches. Is this a likely tactic tonight? And will it spell a tight match against a Milan side who have famously found it hard to score.
Only 2 wins in last 8 for Milan. They have scored in their last 13 away matches in all competitions.
Only 1 win in their last 8 Champions League matches, and remember they are minus Ibrahimovic. El Shawaary has taken over goalscoring duty at least in recent matches and his form is needed tonight.
Only 1 win in the last 11 away matches in the CL for Milan was against the might of, erm, Auxerre. Draws against the likes of Plzen and Bate is poor. 2 consecutive defeats to Arsenal and barca.
ANGLES IN? Well these are 2 out of form sides so this makes things difficult. The research points to Zenit failing to score in 4 of last 5 CL matches, BUT losing only 1 of their last 9 at home, keeping clean sheets in 5 of their last 7 home CL matches. Milan have won only 1 of their last 8 CL matches and won only 1 of their last 11 away matches.
Advantage Zenit based on form? But difficult because both sides in poor form and needing to win .
745pm – Anderlecht v Malaga – 2.46 away
745pm – Arsenal v Olympiakos – 1.44 home – only 2 wins in last 8 for Arsenal at home enough to sound the alarm bells? Not really.Since 2003 in the CL, at home, Arsenal have only lost 2 matches, 1-2 v Chelsea in 2004 and 1-3 v Man Utd in 2009.
13 wins and 2 draws in last 15 home matches include 2 wins against Olympiakos 2-1 and 2-0 so by no means an easy victory on both occasions.
Arsenal lost 3-1 away at Oly in December 2011. They have arguably strengthened the side since then with the likes of Podolski, Gervinho, santa clauseola.
Oly are typically strong away from home domestically.
Only 3 draws in last 26 matches were all 0-0 in the Cl, 2 of them were at home. The inference is that Oly are more likely NOT to have a draw.
6 losses and 3 wins in last 9 CL matches includes 2 3-1 wins against Dortmund and Arsenal.
LLDLLLW in last 7 away CL matches for oly. 0-1 win latest was against Marseille in 2011, an 82nd minute goal. Oly did not score in 4 of those matches.
I cannot see Oly winning away, and the lack of away draws suggests the home side will win. I would trade arsenal here back to lay incase Oly improve. This is a new Arsenal side and I think it is a much improved Arsenal team.
Can Arsenal score 2 again? Well they certainly have the players.
745pm – Dinamo Kiev v Dinamo Zagreb – 1.5 home – apparently Zagreb are the whipping boys of this particular group. No draw in last 19 for Kiev and they are priced not to draw again tonight. In 6 of last 8 CL matches for Kiev, both teams have scored. Kiev lost 4-1 to PSG in their first match in the group and are expected to see off Zagreb although obviously these 2 teams have limited ambitions as regards the CL.
Recent win at home v Feyenoord care helped by an own goal, hardly inspiring confidence.
Zagreb are totally dominant domestically . recent wins in the CL have come against the likes of Ludogorets, Sheriff, and Maribor. Then they lost 2-0 to Porto.
I cannot trust Kiev at 1.5 as they are poor in the Cl. But Zagreb apparently are poorer. The key stat is no draw in last 19 for Kiev which suggests a tight win.
745pm – Man City v Dortmund – 2.08 home – this is the match to watch this evening. 2 excellent sides brimming with attacking talent , hence an obvious 0-0 final score! A 3-2 loss to Real Madrid sees City needing a win. Defeats to Bayern, Napoli and Real all away in the Cl.
2-2-3-3-3-2-5 total goals in City matches in the CL . edging towards over 2.5 goals.
DWW in home CL matches and home is where City will want to reap their rewards.
8 overs in last 10 for Dortmund in all competitions. They beat Ajax 1-0 at home in the Cl so already have the advantage over City.
Only 2 wins in last 9 matches were 1-0 home wins against Ajax and Olympiakos Dortmund were last in the CL in 2003. In 2011 they lost 3 away matches 3-0, 3-1, 2-1. Are Dortmund still vulnerable, and to an attack like Man City’s?
I cannot see City losing this match , seeing as they lost their first group match. 2 consecutive defeats could spell trouble. Both teams could score
745pm – Porto v Paris St-G – 2.4 home