I have to start this week’s eletter with a mention for the League Cup match between Reading and Arsenal mid week. If ever there was an example of a Delay-React-Trade, then this was it.
Reading are 4-0 up at half time in the League Cup. I have spoken before in dispatches about having an option to delay your betting until one team has an “apparent” unassailable lead.
As if you need reminding of a certain Champions League final comeback from Liverpool, or another match involving Arsenal, killer come backs, and the Geordies.
Your bet? Lay Reading and /or back Arsenal. Your stakes/ liabilities can be low, and upside can be extraordinary. Remember on this occasion that Reading are playing a certain team called Arsenal, and that Theo Walcott was fit and playing. Yes I know it’s the League Cup, but hey it’s one of the top 4 Reading are playing!
It’s a bet which screams out to be placed does it not? And here’s why!
The comeback was legendary. And returns are legendary for anyone laying 4-0 up Reading or backing Arsenal 4-0 down (trading advised with the latter bet). This is where the huge returns are made. Already this season, I have layed a 1.08 shot successfully (twice) , and backed Barcelona at a quite unbelievable 6.4 odds! And don’t forget my close footballing showbiz pal, Alan, helping Man Utd backers get decent odds recently at home to Braga and 0-2 down!
2 horse races a logical lay step?
I have been taking note of “apparent” 2 horse races, I say “apparent” because I am noting races where the Racing Post betting forecast is showing 2 horses as dominating the betting, with a distinct gap to the 3rd horse.
I am just collating results and note something interesting. The favourites tend to underperform. I suppose this is logical. If we have a race where 2 horses dominate betting, and really can’t be split (in real terms), then surely the shortest priced horse (the favourite) has a very near rival, not to mention the other horses in the race.
Here’s an example.
This is a race on 31st October. Below is the Betting Forecast for the 115pm race at Punchestown.
115
punch
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Sword Of Destiny, 9/4 Buckers Bridge, 11/2 Daring Article,
I hope you can see that this is clearly an “apparent” 2 horse race. Sword of Destiny at 6/4 and Buckers Ridge at 9/4 (incidentally if we turn these odds into percentages, then Sword takes up 40% and Buckers Ridge 34% of “the book”. That’s a whopping 74% of the odds taken up by 2 horses).
I would contend that laying the favourite in the live betting might be a good angle in Why? Well there is little separating the front 2 horses and the favourite is only the favourite in this case, very marginally. It’s a close call.
The result?
1 Buckers Bridge 5/4
2 Sword Of Destiny 9/10F
3 Troll D’Oudairies 25/1
NR: Katnap (FR), Mackeys Forge (IRE)
You see now why I emphasised the favourite in the Live Betting. Sword of Destiny was beaten by Buckers Ridge.
This does not seem to be an isolated incident. Of course I need to check historically and report back. It is an idea worthy of pursuing. We will always be laying favourites, at sometime odds on prices, knowing at least one other horse is very very closely matched.
And while I’m on the subject of niche betting (teams 3-0+ up, 2 horse race betting), I will be focussing specifically on Irish Racing this Jumps season, and the one Irish Jumps race which is, erm, not even over the jumps! They call it bumpers. The official title is National Hunt Flat Race.
The reason I want to focus on bumpers in Ireland is because of results like this
4:25 – Clonmel Oil Chase Day 15th November Flat Race
* Full result
2m½f, €4,830.00
1 Posiden Sea 25/1
2 Bell Weir 12/1
3 Bose Ikard 4/7F
It’s not an isolated incident seeing a short priced favourite over turned by a big odds winner in an Irish “Flat Race”. I am looking too at favourites in each way races ( 8/9 runner races) as a potential easy to use laying system.
YEEE-HAAAWWWW!
No, I’m not talking about donkey racing (that would be EEEE-AAAWW), I am referring to a small matter of the Breeders Cup which is on for you night owls this weekend. I would recommend each way betting, if the early betting markets are any indication.
Here’s an example from tonight’s race card.
The Race Card and early betting shows are available at racingpost. Looking at the above race card, we have a short priced favourite in Sky Lantern as well as only 5 horses under 12/1 in the betting. Perhaps an each way play can come from one of Spring Venture, Watsdachances, Flotilla and Waterway Run, and speculate on one other horse from those priced 12/1 -16/1 .
Remember, these races are highly competitive so it is worth opposing the favourite with an each way play or two (allowing us to profit from a horse placing).
If I have time, I’ll look through the race cards at Santa Anita for the next 3 days and try to find some each way bets for you. So as well as the usual football betting research on the website whatreallywinsmoney, look out for note or 2 on the Breeder’s Cup tonight, tomorrow and Sunday.
I’m off now to eat a bucket of lard and feel like a real American.