As the weeks progress I will bring out my betting research template but with little to go on at this time of the season, and with a transfer window still open, I am doing bare minimum research, and trying to find patterns. Some matches, as you’ll read below, are very difficult to read and a part of profiting from betting and trading is knowing when to leave a match behind as much as knowing when to enter the market.
1245pm – Inverness CT v Celtic – 1.59 away – 1-0 home win for Celtic v Aberdeen was laboured. 1-1 away draw with Ross County was VERY laboured. As I have said in dispatches, if you’d kept the faith and layed Ross County in the 91st minute, you’d have got 1.04 for the lay! Inverness are on a 3 match score draw streak which infers that they battle hard but are vulnerable to the concession of at least a goal. As ever, the longer the sequence the nearer said sequence is to ending. Celtic are on that Win/Draw sequence with only 2 goals scored in the 79th and 90th minutes.
Celtic have won the last 4 head to heads 2-0, 2-0, 2-0 1-0. Says it all really about a Terry Butcher team.
So, Caley thistle have scored of course in last 3 SPL matches, but not against Celtic in 4. Chance a 1-1, 0-1, 0-2.
Only 1 of Caley’s 5 goals so far have not been scored in the 2nd half, so I would look for 2nd half action here and a hopeful extended 0-0. Note too that Caley conceded first in 2 of last 3.
1245pm – Swansea v West Ham – 2.14 home – New manager syndrome meets newly promoted keeps up the tradition, today at least, for unreadable premiership matches. laudrup put something in the halftime tea – 5-0 away at QPR for Swansea! West Ham got an important 1-0 home win . Both sides kept clean sheets. Swansea lost only 4 at home last season .
Very tough to get an angle in ( I might as well copy that phrase as I am using it quite often )
1pm – Zenit St Petersburg v Rubin Kazan – 1.83 home – 5 games played, 4 won and top of the tree in Russia. Zenit have not conceded at home yet this season in 3 wins . 1.83 though does not relate to another clean sheet ( sub 1.3 might). A 1-1 away draw v Anzhi spoile Zenit’s perfect record.
Head to Heads 2-2, 2-2, 2-3 ( Zenit away), 1-1, 2-2, 0-2 ( Kazan win in Super Cup). There’s goals in them there hills when these 2 meet? Chance more goals today. History points to both teams scoring, but then what to make of Zenit’s clean sheets at home.? Note when they met another big gun ( Anzhi), it was a draw.
Not so sure about this one. The odds for Zenit are in conflict with their 3 clean sheets so far.
No draw yet for Rubin this season in 5, and they have scored in all matches so far this season. Will they break that no draw sequence against a team they have score drawn 4 times in last 6 meetings?
A tough puzzle to solve.
230pm – G Furth v B Munich – 1.43 away – Dortmund won yesterday 2-1 and Bayern must respond asap as this season will see a battle between the 2 teams for the title. bayern are imperious at home. 4 of BAyern’s 5 defeats away last season were against top 7 sides. G Furth are newcomers. This of course makes them tough to read on their home debut in the top flight. If I was the manager of such a side, I would look to be tough to beat so perhaps that’s an angle in. Bayern may just have too much and there is a possibility of a draw/fulltime bayern for the speculator?
First match of the season against newly promoted at home makes it tough for Bayern, but they should out eventually. Look out for possible stalemate for a while.
3pm – Aston Villa v Everton – 2.46 away – 1-0 away loss to West Ham, and 1-0 home win for Everton against Man Utd. That’s all we have to go on at the moment. 3 consecutive score draws in 2011/2012 head to heads. Surely the probability of another score draw diminishes with each consecutive match!
Is this the angle in? Lay the score draw? Lay the draw from a trading perspective.
Note the new manager’s syndrome here for Aston Villa, which will make their first home match of greater importance . How is Paul Lambert going to set this Villa side up with a) a loss already and b) his first home match.
My instinct would favour Everton but the New Manager Syndrome for Villa could insert some unpredictability.
3pm – Man Utd v Fulham – 1.34 home – 2nd game of the season and already it’s a Must Win for Manchester United with Chelsea and Manchester City winning their opener and United slipping up against Everton. Perhaps Old Red Nose has had his prayers answered as he faces perennial bad travellers Fulham.
5-0 home win for Fulham against Norwich was a suprise , and 1-0 away loss to Everton was a surprise.
Kagawa and Van Parsley the 2 key signings for United. Jones, Evans, Ferdinand and Smalling are apparently sidelined for United – that’s a full defensive unit isn’t it?
Senderos and Davies the only 2 absentees for Fulham. Loans and free signings predominate for Fulham.
What to make of that 5-0? And what to make of those United defensive absentees?
Last season saw a 1-0 home win and 0-5 away win for United. The must win factor for United suggests they will oblige, but it may not be a cakewalk. I would personally look for a delay into entering this market until we get a look at the early exchanges.
3pm – Norwich v QPR – 2.4 – it’s a tough old fixture list in the Premier League so far. What are the chances that both sides lose 5-0 in their opening fixture! Well it happened here, Norwich losing away to fulham and QPR at home to Swansea.
Now normally when I see maulings like that, I expect a reaction defensively in the next match, but BOTH teams reacting by shoring up their defences? It’s a match I’m afraid I cannot get an angle into given those 5-0’s in the first matches of the season.
3pm – Southampton v Wigan – 2.18 home – Southampton actually led 1-2 away to Man City in the opener. The reason? Simply the substitutes. So Saints manager must play Ricky Lambert at the bare minimum if they are to have a chance of scoring.
Last season, Saints only lost 3 at home, and failed to score in 2 of those matches. But how transferable is this form now in the Premiership, against a manager as shrewd as Roberto Martinez.
Wigan were sucker punched by 2 goals within the first 7 minutes against Chelsea, and Chelsea were unable to add to that tally. No injury concerns for Wigan.
Both sides have lost their opener ( perhaps expected in both cases). 6 away defeats against top 7 last season for Wigan were the main areas to look for losses.
Against newly promoted sides last season, Wigan drew 2 and lost to QPR. What do we make of this? It makes it tough to get an angle in, in another toughie in this weekend’s Premiership. I suppose there’ll be weeks like this when we get matches we can’t get a real ” betting angle” into.
3pm – Sunderland v Reading – 1.96 home – Well done Martin O’Neill in his opener getting a draw away at Arsenal. Reading have played 2 already, drawing 1-1 at home to Stoke and losing 4-2 away at Chelsea. In both matches, Reading conceded first and if that continues then Sunderland’s 1.96 could be backed pre match in preparation for a back to lay trade. Reading have scored in both matches so far, albeit an 89th minute penalty against Stoke.
A possible angle in could be to look at Sunderland against promoted sides at home last season. Was there a pattern as could be seen when I looked at Chelsea?
Sunderland scored 2-3-3 against the 3 promoted teams last season at home, conceding only once. Are Reading in for another 2+ goal deficit? Wes Brown, Bardsley and Vaughan injured for Sunderland. Interesting frees and loans for Sunderland and Fletcher from Wolves for £15 mill!
Advantage Sunderland surely at home with O’Neill? Dare we hope for them to score 2+ against another promoted side? Is that an angle in?
3pm – Tottenham v West Brom – 1.55 home – Well done to West Brom on their opening home win over Liverpool, poor old Ted Rodgers got a baptism of fire.
Spurs were quite good against Newcastle and were unlucky to lose. Villas Boas still said “oh arse”.
New manager syndrome must be acknowledged for Spurs. Let’s also look at their team. Gomes , Rose, and Parker injured. Pavlyuchenko perhaps the standout transfer out. Unexciting transfers in. Watch out about Van der Fart in the transfer window.
a 1-0 home win ( 63rd Minute goal) against West Brom last season might signal another tight affair? West brom at home kept Liverpool out – is that a sign, or am I being too presumptuous?
I suppose 1.55 could be layed if we expect West Brom to put up some resistance, but the odds might not move with Spurs at home and with a solid attacking unit.
Again, tough to get angles in. Trust Spurs to eventually “out”? Perhaps delayed entry could pay off here to determine whether West Brom put up resistance, and whether Spurs look good enough to get through.
3pm – Wolves v Derby – 1.76 home – pretty much the same odds as Wolves last home match, when they scored 3 goals. Derby have conceded 2 goals in each of their last 2 League matches, and Wolves were 3-0 up in their last home match. Advantage Wolves here. If you think the bookies have overpriced Wolves ( as they did with the 3-1 home win last time), then 1.76 is enticing. Do note that Derby may respond to the concession of 2 goals in 2 consecutive matches by being defensively stronger?
The angle in is whether you think Derby will shut up shop to avoid 2 goals conceded again. 2 of Derby’s 4 goals conceded were in the 90th minute which might suggest a lapse in concentration.
530pm – Chelsea v Newcastle – 1.56 home – Chelsea have scored 2+ in 2 games so far. fat Frank has scored 2 penalties. What are the chances of a 3rd consecutive match with a Chelsea pen? If you think yes, then back Fat Frank to score.
Newcastle were quite lucky to beat Spurs with an 80th minute Arfa daley penalty.
david Luiz is sidelined for Chelsea – stylish defender. Newcastle played in the Europa League with a weakened side and got a 1-1 draw away to Atromitos only as recently as Thursday. I don’t think this should affect them
Cisse the difference in the last head to head, scoring 2 away for Newcastle.
Oscar, hazard, Marin and CAhill good signings for Chelsea.
Chelsea have effectively got shot of their forward line of Anelka, Drogba and Kalou. The last player I thought was always a very effective substitute and he’ll be missed this season. But, Hazard was sharp as a tack.
Cisse is a permenant signing for the Geordies and welcome he will be. anita comes from Ajax and I don’t know anything about her. Nowhere near as much cash as Chelski of course! Sports Direct need to shift some more gear.
I want to look at Newcastle away to top 4 last season.Against the top 9 away infact, LDLLWLLL – guess who that win was against? Chelsea! 0-2 Cisse 2 goals. That makes things interesting here.
It would seem to be advantage Chelsea here. Last season though, Newcastle scored away to 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th, 13th and 14th!
get involved for sure if Newcastle score first. Lay them or back Chelsea. The win against Chelsea occured in the 3rd match from the end of the season which may explain why it was a little anomolous as Newcastle tended to concede 2/3 generally against the top teams.
Angles in? Well for me, if going by last season, Newcastle conceded 2/3 generally away to top teams. Their win over chelsea was in the dying embers of the season.
Chelsea are without Kalou, Drogba, Anelka but have scored 6 in 2 matches.
Newcastle could score in this match and if they score first, then lay them or back Newcastle.
530pm – Dinamo Kiev v Odesa – 1.17 home – 1.17 usually signals 3/4 goals minimum for the home side and a win to nil. Odesa went down 1-5 to Shaktar last match. 8 wins and a 1-0 loss in last 9 in all competitions for Dinamo Kiev includes a midweek 1-3 away triumph in the Champions League where they scored 3. Possible lag after that match? Have only lost 2 in the league since September 2011
The last defeat for Kiev at home in the league came in November 2010. They scored 3 and 4 in last 2 home matches in the league.
615pm – Braga v Beira-Mar – 1.44 home – 2-2 for Braga in their opener against Benfica, and 3-3 for Beira – Mar in their home match opener. What chance another score draw? Well the odds don’t think so. 3 consecutive score draws for Braga too . Lay the draw looks the avenue in? Beira-Mar were 3-0 up in their first match. So if they lead in this match, then they should be vulnerable.
745pm – Ajax v Breda – 1.14 home – 2-2-6 scored by Ajax this season is in line with a 1.14 shot but Breda get strength in defence from Breda – hmmm! 1-1 and 0-1 loss to Twente. All goals scored in the 2nd half. This might infer a lay of Ajax at 1.14 ( liability will be low) in the hope Breda continue this defensive solidity, but Ajax have scored 3 goals before 20 minutes in their last 2 matches.
745pm – Fenerbahce v Gaziantepspor – 1.5 home – fener have won the last 3 encounters between these 2, and the last 2 were 3-1 wins, fairly convincing and not in keeping with a 1.5 quote for a home team. Dirk Kuyt has scored in his last 4 Fenerbahce matches and he is a great signing at this lesser level. 1-1 for Fener so far this season. Only 1 draw for Gaziant in their last 15 league matches. 8 clean sheets ended with a 0-1 loss to Sivasspor.
So Gaziant were strong in defence but that run of 8 clean sheets did not involve the big boys.
Tough to call this one, and you would think Gaz could shut out Fener for a while in this match. 1.5 a bit big to lay. Perhaps back 0-0 as a back to lay trade and just hope the goals come in the 2nd half. I am worried that fener have found it easy last 2 matches against gaz to score 3 on both occasions.
745pm – Juventus v Parma – 1.34 home – Juve went through last season unbeaten. If you feel they can do so again, simply lay their opponents throughout the season. Better still, why not lay their opponents if they lead at any stage. A 4-1 home win against Parma last year part of a Juve campaign at home where they scored an average 2.11 .
This is exactly the same fixture as opened up both teams’ campaigns last season and that was 4-1 to Juve.
Juve have been quiet in the transfer window, and their only major signings came domestically. In such a tight league ( they won the title by 4 points) every home point will be sacred . What chance another comfortable home victory with the nucleus of the side which played last season for Juve still in tact.
830pm – Porto v Guimaraes – 1.26 home – 0-0, 1-0, 0-0 so far in August 2012 for Porto. That goal was scored in the 90th minute. I saw their match last week and they were totally dominant away from home. Are Porto suffering up front? I don’t see why they should be. Guimaraes were 0-0 at home to Sporting Lisbon first match, so we have 2 teams struggling to score of late.
2-0, 2-1, 3-1 for Porto at home in head to heads suggest overs , in conflict with the unders for both sides in admittedly only a handful of matches.
Only 1 defeat last season for Porto and they only failed to score 2 or 3 in 1 home match all last season. Last season, Guimares at home against the big guns featured 5 1-0 results. But away, they conceded 3-2-4-5-2.
The odds, and head to heads , and history at home, point to Porto winning and scoring 2/3 minimum.
1130am – AZ Alkmaar v Heerenveen – 1.52 home – Altidore is the key man for AZ, scoring twice in 2 matches so far this season. This is dangerous because if he gets injured and is the sole supplier of goals, where else will they come from? So watch out for any Altidore absence. 4 goals in each of their 2 matches so far,both teams scoring. Loss and draw so far for Heerenveen. AZ have only won 1 of the last 4 head to heads, drawing 2 and losing 5-1 in the other. Perhaps then we should focus on a neutral bet such as goals here , in order to involve both teams?
12pm – Berwick v Rangers – 1.15 away – Rangers have unexpectedly been struggling in Division 3. Berwick lost 3-2 after being 2-0 up in their last league match. So if they happen to score first, then lay the pants of them, or back Rangers.
2-2 and 5-1 so far for Rangers although they got the 2-2 care of a 90th minute goal. I think they were similarly priced last week and obliged with 5 so the capabilities are there for Rangers to dish out a hiding. Likely to keep up their record of scoring 2+ in games.
130pm – NEC Nijmegen v Twente – 2.04 away – I had a thought regarding these top Dutch sides that when they are priced at odds like these ( over evens) then we should take a chance, and perhaps use trading as a comfort blanket. Twente, PSV, Ajax, and I suppose AZ, fall into this bracket. Twente are 2/2 this season, and won their last away match 0-1.
NEC won 3-1 in March 2012 – is this the reasoning behind the over evens quote for Twente?
NEC though lost 1-6 to Ajax at home last match and Ajax I would equate as being on a par with Twente. But as I say 2.03 does not reflect a team who are going to win 1-6.
Beware the reaction to getting hammered. We see it time and again, teams who get hammered suddenly over react in defence next match. An interesting match but a headscratcher as to why Twente are so ( relatively) big in odds
130pm – Stoke v Arsenal – 2.28 away – a whopping price for the Arsenal relates that layers think they will have trouble breaking down Stoke . 4 consecutive 1-1 draws for Stoke in all competitions must come to an end sometime, and to be honest, it nearly came to an end against Reading ( 90th minute penalty). The odds today though, favour the draw!. Both of these sides dropped 2 points
You couldn’t make it up! Stoke at home to the top 3 last season drew 1-1( that included the Arse!).
Probability wise, 1-1 should be layed shouldn’t it? Arsenal should not lose to teams like Stoke away, if we take last season as a guide. The jury is out on how much of an impact the absence of RVP is. To be fair, Giroud should have won the match against Sunderland. RVP you suspect would have bagged the goal.
If Stoke score first, they should be layed. Although I would hope they hold on to a 1-0 for a while.
The puzzle to solve is whether this 1-1 which predominates Stoke will come into play again. Surely not, says the probability. It was so near being broken last time out, surely there’s a chance it can be broken this time.
But then the Arse at 2.28 do not relay that the bookies have faith in an easy away win!
Add this match to the list of “tough to solve in the Premiership” today.
330pm – Groningen v PSV – 1.58 away – another of the Triumvirate of Dutch football. PSV matches have seen 5 goals each ( 2 matches) so far, a 3-2 loss and a 5-0 home win. So if you don’t fancy PSV in the match odds, then perhaps a look at a neutral goals bet could pay off. DDWL for PSV in their last 4 head to heads, they lost 3-0 away to Groningen in their last meeting in February this year.
Groningen have already lost 4-1 to Twente this season and that could be a cue? In any case, goals has a better chance of coming in than not.
4pm – Anzhi Makhachkala v Mordovia Saransk – 1.37 home – Anzhi’s home defeats since July 2011 have come exclusively against Moscow clubs and Zenit. This season, 1-1 draw with Zenit, 1-0, v Amkar and 2-1 v kuban . Sole loss has come away at CSKA and that was a 1-0. With limited matches, it’s unders v top 10 and overs in 2 matches outside top 10. Mordovya are 14th.
Mordovia are a promoted side and seem to be struggling, albeit in a small pool of matches so far.LLWDL . Away from home it’s 1-0 loss and 0-0 v current 10th and 12th. Likely a ” baptism of fire” meeting one of the big boys today. If we look at Mordovia at home against 5th and 6th, they conceded 3 – that was at HOME, so consider 3 goal concession perhaps today ( although Anzhi’s odds do not reflect that).
4pm – Liverpool v Man City – 2.5 away – a rested Liverpool side won away in the Europa League mid week so that should not have an impact . 2.5 is a big price for a proper top 3 side against an also ran last season ( King Kenny kind of fecked it up.) This could be a big price for Man City, well that’s what my instinct tells me. Brendan Rodgers’ first home game of the season and he’ll be nervous after a 3-0 away drubbing v West Brom. Liverpool at home to the top 4 last season were generally tight. 1-1, 1-1, 1-2 v Arsenal, 0-0 v Spurs. But then we have new manager syndrome. Note Liverpool did not win, but “heroically” drew,
Aguero is a significant miss for Manchester City. Liverpool’s odds might be low enough to allow us to lay them outright – they are 3.25 and they do need a reaction from the opening loss . Manchester City have had 2 consecutive 3-2 scorelines ( both wins). They are full of goals .
Normally these types of matches are tight affairs with scorelines like 1-1, 1-2, 2-1.
How does Brendan Rodgers approach this match? Both teams to score could be a goer?
5pm – AC Milan v Sampdoria – 1.49 home – start of a new season in Seria A. Which team has the Mafia Don chosen to win this year? Already Juve won yesterday at home, so you’d expect AC Milan with home advantage to have to make it count. Not much to work on apart from head to heads and last year. AC Milan were 4 points away from Juve last season and they drew their first 2 home matches ( and guess what? That’s 4 lost points just there!).
1-2 and 3-0 the head to head scorelines in favour of AC Milan. But Samp are newly promoted this season so those were not league encounters.
AC won home and away against all of the bottom 7 last season ( a bit of an assumption that Samp will be bottom 7!).
2 major transfers out for AC Milan in Ibrahimovic and Thiago Silva. The former is a serious loss as he bagged 28 goals last season ( next best 10).
A lot of frees and loans and nothing much to replace Ibra. Could this impact upon the ease, or otherwise, in which AC Milan score at home today? 28 goal man a massive loss. And 6.6 mill only spent but not on any household name.
A tricky opener and a likely eventual AC Milan win – angle in is determining whether AC have sufficient forwards to cope with Ibra’s miss. Pato, Robinho, El Shaawary and Pazzini – a different kind of striker and I suppose more ” balls on the ground” with these guys.
I hope to watch this match to determine how AC Milan are. Delayed entry might pay off if Samp can do a shut out job for the early part. SAmp actually struggled away to the top 5 in Seria B, so perhaps they will have trouble today.
515pm – PAOK v Panthrakikos – 1.42 home
6pm – Osasuna v Barcelona – 1.24 away – buzzing from their 3-2 home win against Real Madrid. Full of goals as well as you’d expect, 5 scored on opening day of the season. And with real already behind in points, Barca must win when priced to and when expected to. WWWWWL – 3-0 Osasuna home win last time they met on 11th Feb this year. If you’re squeamish, then over 3.5, or over 4.5 goals might be a safer neutral bet. If Osasuna score first, well, you know what to do!
Osasuna lost 2-0 away to Deportivo , one goal a 90th minute one. Osasuna at home lost only 3 last season, against Real Madrid, Atl Madrid and Racing. Could that make the 1.24 potentially layable at a low liability ( my problem is that barca can score at any time.) Both teams have scored in the last 2 meetings at Osasuna.
730pm – Veria v Olympiakos – 1.35 away – newcomers to the Greek Super League, Veria face another ( cliche book at the ready) ” baptism of fire”. Oly were comfortable 9 point winners last season .They only lost 2 away matches ( and that was out of 3 matches in total lost all season). The characteristic behind those losses? well, Oly did not score. that will be Veria’s weapon. Shut Oly out, you’re guaranteed a point.
Newcomers to the league, on their first match at home , are always tough to predict. Getting inside the manager’s head, he’d want to play the match minute by minute, park the bus ( if they can afford one), and hope for a 0-0, or a 1-0.
7 consecutive clean sheets for Veria in their last 7 home league matches suggests they are well drilled defensively, but then they have not played a team of the calibre of Olympiakos who scored 2+ on 10 occasions away. BUT against bottom 2 sides last season, 0-0 and 0-1 – will these minnows sit on a 0-0?
Value lies with opposing goals here, but we might not get much out of it! Tough to call with a newly promoted side at home for the first time against Champions.
745pm – Besiktas v Galatasaray – 2.22 away – Galatasary must be the team to beat in Turkey this year, and face an apparent tough ask v Besiktas today whose vociferous support ensures home advantage.
745pm – Pescara v Inter – 1.88 away
745pm – Roma v Catania – 1.45 home
8pm – Getafe v Real Madrid – 1.36 away 0-1 loss to real and 1-0 win over Barca last season for getafe at home to the big 2. Is this the template to work to tonight? 1-1 v valencia in the opener for real madrid was not unexpected looking at the form.
Will the Getafe who were royal pains in the arse at home to the top 2 last season, turn up tonight? If so, then the value lays in laying over 2.5 goals ( it will be short given the class acts on display for real).
Getafe are on a 4 match losing streak ( albeit 3 were friendlies) and real madrid have drawn and lost their last 2. Now with the latter, you do not expect Real madrid to go 2 , let alone 3, matches without winning.
Delayed entry may pay off if getafe again prove difficult to beat, and then we can get Real Madrid’s odds a little higher in play. Look perhaps to backing 0-0 to start with as a back to lay trade. The reputation of the Real forward line ensures the odds are high!
815pm – Setubal v Benfica – 1.37 away – as recently as May, benfica won 1-3 away to Setabul – is that a convenient angle in? 2 consecutive score draws for Benfica, one a friendly with Juve, the other 2-2 v Sporting ( they were 1-2 down). Setabul coincidentally drew 2-2 with nacional away, after being 2-0 down. Both sides, albeit from a sample of one match, are scoring and conceding.
This could suggest a natural over 2.5 goals? It also suggests that we lay Setabul/ Back Benfica if Setabul score first.
Benfica scored 3 and 4 against Setabul last season, and away from home, their only 2 defeats were 1-0 against 4th and 6th. Setabul beaten 1-3 by both Porto and Benfica at home last season.
This could be a guide today ( and note again that Setabul scored in both matches).
10pm – Valencia v Deportivo – 1.48 home