No girlfriend in sight today to drag me on some “exciting” jaunt, so I can do my research uninterrupted in what is a quiet day. An uninspiring bunch of matches today and a move to some of the lesser leagues where I am not privy to team news etc. It’s always good, however, to practice research.
1230pm – Hong Kong v Australia – 1.21 away – I cannot fathom ( knee jerk reaction) why the Aussies are not shorter, much shorter. It may be that this match comes in the midst of a “business as usual” footballing week so we will not be seeing the established Aussie first team. This is the ” East Asian Cup”.
Only 4 draws in last 18 in all competitions for Hong Kong were score draws. These wins have come against the likes of India, Macao, Chinese Taipei, Singapore and Guam. Only 3 wins in last 12 at home in all competitions have come against macao, Chinese Taipei and ( surprisingly), Singapore.
In the East Asian Cup, the most recent Hong Kong matches came in 2010. A 1-2 win against guam recently tells you about the level of Hong Kong.
A recent sticky patch for the Aussies saw only 1 win in 6 but they have addressed that of late with 2 wins away to Iraq and Korea Republic. Last 5 aways in all competitions have been over 2.5 goals but can we really trust HOng Kong to contribute?
This is Australia’s debut into this Cup today. We are likely to see a team without major domestic and European based league players as we are in the midst of a Domestic and Xmas period schedule. This presents a difficulty in nailing a likely scoreline. Ordinarily with a strong expected Aussie side, they would Hong Kong Phooey the Hong Kong side and most likely win comfortably to nil. Still Aussies should score 2 minimum today and not give the opponents a look in.
6pm – Genclerbirligi v Trabzonspor – 2.68 home – this match is featured at www.soccerstats.com . The odds suggest that the bookies haven’t got a clue. Will the form reveal anything?
HEAD TO HEADS
A reason why the odds are so non committal. Look at how both teams have scored in all recent head to heads. The inference here is that this could go either way as it has or end as a score draw. Hence the 2.68 for the favourite.
LEAGUE POSITION – 10th v 8th – continues the theme of “tightness”The turkish league is so tight that a win could send a team into the top 5.
HOME TEAM – -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Genc
RECENT HOME FORM – WDWDLD – Genc are drawing in alternate games. If that continues then they will not draw today. Hardly scientific but worth looking at.Genc look rock solid at home if we see the 3-3 v Galatasary(1st) and the 3-1 win against 2nd. The only loss was a 1-2 against 2nd bottom .
RECENT FORM OVERALL – WDDLDWWDDLWDL – only 4 wins and they have seen Genc score 2+ . 2 wins home and 2 wins away. Only 3 losses all season, 2 have come away against 4th and 5th and that other against 2nd bottom at home. Genc have drawn 1-1 against 9th and 11th at home and are playing 8th today
GOAL TRENDS – 67% overs at home. Have scored in all home matches. Average 2.17 at home. Have failed to score in only 2 matches all season, both away and both 0-0. Have scored and conceded in last 4 matches. In 9 of last 10 matches, there have been 2 goals minimum in Genc matches.
STREAKS – have scored in last 6 at home. Have scored and conceded in last 4.
AWAY TEAM – past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Trab
RECENT AWAY FORM – DLDDLW – poor away form, albeit losing only 2. Losses have come against 2nd and 12th away.
RECENT OVERALL FORM – DWLWDDWDLLWWL – no draw in last 5 and 3 wins in last 5. Last 2 wins have come at home v 18th (bottom ) and away v 11th.
GOAL TRENDS – 33% overs away from home. Have only conceded 2 against 2nd away. Likely to be hard to score against. Have only scored 2 away in 1 match.
STREAKS – have scored and conceded in last 3 away. No draw in 5 overall. Have conceded in last 6 overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – this match is pervaded by tightness. Genc look to be rather strong at home, given their performances in scoring 3 against 1st and 2nd. Genc have scored in all home matches and failed to score only twice all season. Trab look tough to beat away from home, conceding 2 goals only once, BUT scoring 2 goals only once away. Head to heads see both teams scoring and that may be a starting point. This match is tough. Look at the goal trends. 2/3rd of Genc’s home matches are overs. 1/3rd of Trab’s away matches are overs. 1-1 draws for Genc against 9th and 11th may be the cue for what to expect against 8th?
There will be easier matches this week!
630pm – Dinamo Bucharest v Turnu Severin – 1.32 home – another match interestingly featured at soccerstats.com – it’s always worthwhile doing these short favs because the bookies are telling you clearly what they think so your research can back that up, or contradict it, and can look at alternative markets to the 1.32 match odds market.
HEAD TO HEADS
Tighter away match than 1.32 home odds today would suggest. Still, a win for Dinamo. All 2nd half goals and a Dinamo 80th minute winner.
LEAGUE POSITION – 7th v 18th ( bottom)
HOME TEAM – -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Dinamo Bucharest
RECENT HOME FORM – WWLWLWLW – not a draw in sight but capable also of losing in turn. Defeats v 3rd, 6th and 17th. 2 0-1 losses and a 1-2 against 17th.
RECENT FORM OVERALL – WWDDWLLWWDLWDLLDW – only 2 wins in last 8 for Bucharest. They might get away with it against bottom side? Only 3 clean sheets all season, 2 of those were away from home.Have generally beaten the bottom 5, but 3 2-1 wins and a 1-2 loss amongst those leaves Bucharest vulnerable to conceding and if conceding and not scoring 2, they could drop points.
GOAL TRENDS – 75% overs at home. Have only failed to score in 2 of last 10.
STREAKS -8 at home without a draw. Have conceded in last 4 at home.
AWAY TEAM – past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team – turnu
RECENT AWAY FORM – LDLLLLDL – no win away and only 2 draws which were both score draws agianst 2nd and 4th. Have lost to 1st, 3rd, 5th and 8th and scored against 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 8th ( not against 5th). It seems as if this bottom side has a goal in them at least.
RECENT OVERALL FORM – LLLDDLDLDLLLLDWLD – on 14 occasions have Turnu been involved in either a draw or a “one goal in it” match . One win was a 1-0 and that I suspect will be the scoreline IF they win today.The majority of score draws have appeared against 11th and lower at home.
GOAL TRENDS – 50/50 overs away from home. A generally low scoring average under 1%. No clean sheets away so could concede at any time.
STREAKS – 8 away without a win. Have conceded in last 8 away but scored in last 5 overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – Turnu are not the mugs the odds would suggest. Their performances against top 5 away deserves credit. They have scored 1-1-1-2-0 against top 5 away . They have conceded 2 against 1st, 3rd, 4th, 8th, 12th away. There are no goal minute tables for the Romanian League so I cannot see whether Turnu hold out for a while or if the goals are conceded early.
This match sees a home side in poorish form and we could see both sides score today. Turnu’s ability NOT to score 2 on regular occasions could leave them ruing another 2-1 defeat , or if lucky a 1-1 draw. The home side have a solid record against bottom 5 but that is punctuated by both teams scoring and 3 2-1 wins. I would not discourage any 1.32 layers here, the liability is de minimis and Turnu’s ability to score might be the trigger for a successful trade ( as ever with such a relatively poor away side, treat stakes as lost if laying Dinamo).
7pm – Dordrecht v AGOVV – 1.49 home – 1.5’s are difficult to predict. Recent 1.5’s have seen a 3-1 and a 1-0 win .
HEAD TO HEADS
One recent aberration stopped Dordrecht from scoring 2+ in head to heads. This league is renowned for its goals so this could be a good goal filled match judged on head to heads.
LEAGUE POSITION – 6th v 14th.
HOME TEAM – -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Dordrecht
RECENT HOME FORM – LWWDWD – only defeat against 8th was a 1-2. have scored 3 at home on 4 occasions this season ( rather in keeping with head to heads ). Have scored 3 against 3 of bottom 6 ( and playing a bottom 6 side today)
RECENT FORM OVERALL – DLWWDWWLDWWWDL – have failed to score in only 1 this season and that was a 3-0 loss against top side away latest. Defeats have come against 1st away, 4th away and 8th at home.
GOAL TRENDS – 100% overs at home, largely doing it by themselves with 2.5 goal average. Scored in all homes so far. Both teams have scored in 5 of 6 home matches. Only 3 under 2.5 goals matches all season have seen 2 1-1’s and a 2-0. Only 3 clean sheets all season, 2 of those away.
STREAKS – no defeat in 5 at home, have scored in last 6 at home.
AWAY TEAM – past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team – AGOVV
RECENT AWAY FORM – DDLWDDD – not bad away form and if those draws had turned into wins, AGOVV would be contending. Have played 4 of top 6 away and drawn 1-1, 0-0, 2-2, 1-1 and are playing 6th today. Sole defeat has come against 10th away.
RECENT OVERALL FORM – DLDWLLWLWDLDDL – only 3 wins , 2 at home and one against 4th bottom.
GOAL TRENDS – 14% overs away from home down to scoring and conceding an average 0.86 goals. 3 clean sheets in last 4 aways but on closer inspection 2 came against bottom 4 sides.
STREAKS – 3 match drawing streak away. 5 overall without a win.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – AGOVV should not win today , they have only beaten 4th bottom but they could be royal pains in the arse for Dordrecht. They have drawn all of top 7 they have played away but are playing a Dordrecht side averaging 2.5 goals at home and historically scoring 2+ against today’s opponents. What will give? Dord have scored 3 against 3 of the bottom 6 and are playing a bottom 6 side.
A match for you to decide. 100% overs and go with home attack or meet a brickwall with AGOVV away and 14% overs only? History goes with the 100% overs.
8pm – Newcastle v Wigan – 2.1 home – well advertised injury ” crisis” for both sides makes this a real headscratcher this evening. I suppose the key is in identifying the areas of greater weakness.
HEAD TO HEADS
Unpredictable head to heads – first we have both teams scoring in tight goal fests, then we have 3 where only 1 team scores, and suddenly a 4-0 hom win for wigan ( do note the time of the season -desparation stakes for Wigan). Newcastle are unbeaten at home in last 3 head to heads.
LEAGUE POSITION – 14th v 15th – both on 14 points.
HOME TEAM – -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Newcastle. The role call for injuries is worse – Gosling, Perch, Ben Arfadaley, Taylor, Cabaye, R Taylor, and Vuckic are injured. 3 defenders are injured , but Coloccini is back. The midfield is missing 4 on the injured list. The attackers are unscathed and a strong suit for the Geordies when clicking, but will they be missing the service from the first team midfield?
RECENT HOME FORM – WDWLWLL – home defeats to WEst Ham, 0-1 and Swansea, 1-2. Demba Ba got a 90th minute goal . Only 1 draw, 1-1 v Villa. Wins, in better times, against 4th Spurs and 5th West BRom, and 1-0 Norwich.
RECENT FORM OVERALL – WLDDWDLDWDLLLL – injury ravages have seen 4 defeats West Ham, swansea, Saints and Stoke and only 2 goals scored, almost inevitably by Ba and Cisse. Only 1 win in 9 now, and only 3 wins all season, albeit impressively against top 5 sides on 2 occasions. Newcastle have conceded 2 now in last 3 matches.
GOAL TRENDS – 57% overs at home. Demba Ba a key player home and away scoring 8 in total. Only 1 clean sheet all season. Have failed to score in 2 of last 4 matches
STREAKS – 5 at home without a draw. Have conceded in last 4 at home and last 9 overall.
AWAY TEAM – past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Wigan – their injury list reads Ramis (defender), S Maloney ( attacker), Miyaichi ( attacker), Crusat( midfield), Alcaraz ( defender), and Watson( midfield). Di Santo and Kone are the boys with the goals and they are fit so that is a plus.
RECENT AWAY FORM – WLLLWL – no draw away and have lost to United, Swansea, Liverpool and Sunderland. Wins have come against Spurs and Saints, both without conceding.
RECENT OVERALL FORM – LWDLLLDLWWLLWL – carrying on the draw free theme in recent matches overall. Wigan’s last 2 defeats have been against Liverpool and City so nothing unexpected. They recently beat reading 3-2 at home
GOAL TRENDS – 50/50 overs away from home, Wigan have not scored in the first half away from home , and NOT conceded in the first half away from home. . They have conceded 10 in the 2nd half though – yikes!6 of the last 8 matches have been over 2.5 goals and Wigan have only kept 2 clean sheets all season. They have failed to score largely against the bog clubs, Man City, United, Liverpool, Chelsea
STREAKS – 6 away without a draw, 7 overall. have conceded in last 4 overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS -the injury list for both sides adds an air of unpredictability and both sides seem to be weakened more in midfield. Both sides retain their top goalscorers for the matches. Newcastle seem to have weakened defence too. Newcastle have the edge in head to heads and have cisse and Ba available. A 4 match losing streak must end eventually. No draw away for Wigan and no draw in 4 at home for NEwcastle. Is that an angle into a match blighted by injuries?
830pm – Sevilla v Valladolid – 1.76 home
HEAD TO HEADS
No recent head to heads.
LEAGUE POSITION – 12th v 10th – identical head to heads.
HOME TEAM – -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Sevilla
RECENT HOME FORM – WWLWDW – only one defeat at home was a 2-3 v Barcelona – have beaten Real madrid 1-0 at home , beat 4th and 6th and 0-0 v 7th . Solid look to the form
RECENT FORM OVERALL – WDDWWLLWLDLWL – just as things were looking rosey re the home form, Sevilla look overall rather inconsistent. only 2 wins in last 8. 4 of only 5 defeats this season have come away from home against 2nd , 13th, 14th and 15th.
GOAL TRENDS – 67% overs at home. Have scored 9 at home in the first half.
STREAKS – 3 at home without defeat. Have conceded in last 3 overall.
AWAY TEAM – past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team
RECENT AWAY FORM – Valladolid
RECENT OVERALL FORM – WLLLWL – no draw away and only 1 draw at home for Sevilla – have lost 2-1 to 2nd , 5th and 6th and lost 2-0 to 15th. 2 wins , both 0-1 v 13th and 16th.
GOAL TRENDS – 50/50 overs away. Have not conceded in the first half hour away . Have only scored 3 in the first half and 2 in the 2nd half.
STREAKS – 6 away without a draw. Have scored in the last 4 away and last 9 overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – valladolid’s 2 wins have both been 0-1 with 45th minute and 83rd minute goals. Their most recent win , was at home and 1-0 with a 63rd minute goal v Granada. this will be Valla’s tactic you suspect. Sevilla have conceded 3-2-2-2-0-2-1 – 4 in recent matches so are going through a sticky patch but are solid at home. Is this just a Jekyll and Hyde side? Strong at home and poor away? If you believe Sevilla are a different animal at home than away, and they have had great performances agaisnt Barca and Real, then this is an angle. in. Valla have not had a draw away, and have had a tendency to concede 2 goals in away matches which inevitably led to defeats.
0-1 insurance bet if you want to avoid Valladolid but insure against a 3rd away 0-1?