Some good research yesterday and all the big teams won in the CHampions LEague despite not needing to win.
Europa League football today, and Olympic Women’s Final and 3rd place matches.
1pm – Canada (W) v France (W) – 2.1 away – France have won the last 2 head to heads and this is the Bronze medal match.France have not had a draw in their last 12 matches ( could be longer but the website I use only shows the last 12) -is this an angle in?
Canada have scored 2 in their last 4 matches and put it up to the USA – I feel that they can trouble France today, so a lay at 2.1 is reasonable. Given the Canadian’s ability to score, perhaps lay France if they score first.
Again this is a toughie as it’s a one off very important match.
5pm – Dinamo Moscow v Dundee Utd – 1.4 home – new manager for Dinamo Moscow throws a spanner in the works somewhat. Why? Well we cannot really judge the home side on their previous form because that was under another manager.
Dundee were 2-1 up until the 90th minute in the earlier Europa League tie. Does this point to an air of vulnerability about Moscow and 1.4. It is certainly a price which is very layable as it’s heavily odds on and our liabilities will not be unduly sizeable.Apart from the Dundee tie, Dinamo were unable to score in 3 of their last 4 matches, hence I suppose the change in management.
They have not win in their last 6 Europa League ties, and have lost to Rangers before, albeit that was 2001.
Dundee have scored 5 in their last 2 matches, including the 2 against Dinamo Moscow.
tough to call this one as Moscow could click under new management, BUT could be vulnerable at 1.4 due to Dundee showing an ability to score twice against them.
5pm – Elfsborg v AC Horsens – 1.72 home – all to play for with 1-1 from the first leg. 0-1 until the 90th minute penalty for Horsens could hint at Horsens struggling to score away from home ( they could only score via a 90th minute penalty with home advantage).
That would be an angle in , perhaps a 0-0, 1-0, 2-0 to Elfsborg eventually. We might have to wait until the 2nd half for any action.
545pm – Slaven Belupo v Ath Bilbao – 1.78 away – 3-1 to Bilbao from the first leg and immediately that 1.78 looks a tad high with such a dominant first leg. Only 1 draw in 17 Europa ties for Slaven was a 0-0. No draw in 9 home Europa matches and 3 defeats were by conceding 2 goals.
6 defeats and a 0-0 before that welcome 3-1 win for Bilbao sees them in poor form ( albeit opponents are probably stronger than today’s).Last 2 defeats away in this competition have come against SPorting Lisbon and Atl Madrid, strong sides.
Wins against Man Utd – twice and Schalke see Bilbao happy in this competition. That 1.78 is suspiciously high for 3-1 winners and that is a concern. Do the market makers know something I don’t?
6pm – Anorthosis v Dila Gori – 1.35 home
6pm – Legia Warsaw v SV Ried – 1.58 home
6pm – Mlada Boleslav v Twente – 1.84 away
6pm – Rosenborg v Servette – 1.59 home
630pm – Gent v Videoton – 1.53 home
7pm – Mura v Arsenal Kiev – 1.39 away
7pm – PAOK v Bnei Yehuda – 1.57 home
7pm – Plzen v Ruch Chorzow – 1.49 home
7pm – Sparta Prague v Admira Wacker – 1.46 home
730pm – Bursaspor v KuPS – 1.24 home
730pm – Hannover v St Patricks – 1.16 home – 0-3 away win for Hannover puts this tie to bed. Clearly dominant and we saw yesterday with Anderlecht, Maribor, and Helingsborgs that a dominant first leg did not stop them from winning their 2nd leg matches. 1.16 hints at a repeat of the 0-3 away scoreline.
745pm – Inter v Hajduk Split – 1.22 home – another of those conundrums we saw yesterday with Anderlecht, Helsingsborgs and Maribor. What to do when you are 0-3 up from a first leg, yes and 3 away goals. Like the Hannover match above, we must remember this is not a must win, Inter do have strength in depth and may want some fringe players to gain experience. They are certainly smarting from this being the Europa League and not the Champions League. Inter are priced the same as Liverpool are interestingly enough.
So take a position. Will Inter do as the other clearly dominant sides do yesterday and win? Or is it a case of “not must wins tend not to win”
745pm – Marseille v Eskisehirspor – 1.43 home
745pm – USA (W) v Japan (W) – 1.94 home – World Cup Gold and totally unpredictable. I’m not even going to begin to fathom this final. Logic dictates nervousness and a wish not to concede first.
805pm – Liverpool v Gomel – 1.21 home – 68th minute away goal for Liverpool in the first leg and the ideal of course if for a clean sheet and a goal or 2 for Liverpool in this Europa League tie. That could be the angle in. Not much that I can do form wise as it’s still pre season. New Liverpool manager may instil the kind of defensive will he gave Swansea. Pre Season Liverpool have conceded 1-2-0 -latterly against Spurs.
Possible win to nil.
Gomel have won their last 2 away Europa ties without conceding but that is a sequence likely to end today.
9pm – Valencia v Tottenham – 2.08 home