Ahh, the international break – mouth-watering matches such as, erm, Uzbekistan v Lebanon, and pre-apocalypse South Korea v Qatar.
I was salivating in anticipation.
Despite these matches being less than appealing as a spectacle, the Uzbekistan match in particular was a perfect example of why you should be researching all football matches of interest, particularly international competitive fixtures.
I put forward correct scores for this Uzbekistan match, including 1-0, which was the final score. And this from a team 1/3 in the betting coupon (the bookies expected an easy high-scoring win – my research indicated otherwise).
And the key to researching international matches is to use the correct website. In this instance, I would recommend www.soccerway.com. It is a superb site which allows you to see overall form, home form in isolation, away form in isolation, as well as focussing specifically on World Cup qualifying games.
Why don’t you take a look here? While perusing this research from earlier in the week, note the way I shortlist correct scores. I normally shortlist two or three possible correct scores.
Last week’s eletter introduced you to the concept of correct scores, correct score permutations and how you should focus on teams who have a habit of winning to nil.
When you focus on a team likely to win to nil, your choice for correct scores comes from a maximum of 10 selections only: 0-0, 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, 5-0, 6-0, 7-0, 8-0, 9-0, 10-0.
Ten selections to shortlist – a win to nil means we can ignore the 0-0. We are down to nine correct scores shortlisted. Under normal circumstances (unless you are Egypt who beat Swaziland 10-0 last Friday), we can eliminate 7-0, 8-0, 9-0, 10-0. This leaves us with six correct score wins to nil to choose from.
It doesn’t half make life easier for you correct score punters doesn’t it, if we have a pool of only six correct scores in which to choose from?
And with correct scores having reasonable odds, there is a chance to back two or three of these correct scores with level stakes, or using variable profit dutching (quite simply, we can create a break even on one or two of the correct scores, and load up profit on our favoured correct score).
Variable profit dutching using Betfair does require the use of specialist software. Here, I use Fairbot from www.binteko.com. I will go more in depth into variable profit dutching in my newsletter What Really Wins Money in April.
Suffice to say, return to my research on the 26th March and note, particularly in the Netherlands match and the England match, how I shortlisted my potential correct scores to three (3-0, 3-1, 4-0 for the Netherlands match, and 1-0, 0-1, 1-1 for the England match). Within those three selections was found the correct score. Look too at the Poland match research (where I nailed the 5-0 result), as well as the Portugal and Italy match research.
As ever, I’ll be researching the weekend’s matches as we return to European and domestic league action, and this time why don’t you take note of any analysis where I distinctly shortlist correct scores. You’ll note, more often than not, that I have ascertained said game is likely to feature a win to nil.
Those of you who followed the final day at Cheltenham stats that I did in this little old eletter will have been pleasantly surprised with the frequency of win and placed horses those stats supplied.
I will do the same in next week’s eletter for the Grand National – yes, that most simple of races, over an extreme distance, at an extreme course featuring a manure-load of horses. If only my Gran were alive. She had a great system, which involved the Daily Mail Grand National edition and a pin. She was surprisingly accurate. So, tune in next week for my Grand National stats analysis.