Last week I showed you how to get a stat angle into the Cheltenham Festival.
In this eletter I will pick out the standout stats race by race from the excellent At The Races website. The key for you is to really focus on those eye-catching stats and shortlist the races appropriately.
TUESDAY 12 MARCH (known around Cheltenham as the [ahem] ‘day-before-my-birthday day’)
1.30 p.m. – Irish have won 8 of the last 14. Only 3 of the last 16 horses to start under 16/1 have won this race. 7 of the last 8 winners were found outside the first 3 in the betting. 14 out of the last 16 winners have been last time out winners. Since 1993, every winner bar one had run within 45 days of their last race.
2.05 p.m. – 12 of the last 13 winners were rated 142+ over hurdles. Only one of the last 21 winners started at any bigger than 11/1. BUT there have been only 3 favourites winning in those 21 races. 15 of the last 20 winners started 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the betting. Henderson has won 4 Arkles and Nicholls has won 2. Only 2 of the last 26 winners failed to finish 1st or 2nd last time out.
2.40 p.m. – No winner has defied a handicap mark of 150+ in 30 years. The last 13 winners were no higher than 143 in the ratings. 7 of the last 15 winners were previously placed at Cheltenham in the past. Horses aged 11+ are 0-40 to even place. 9 winners since 1999 came from the first 4 in the betting. The 2nd favourite has won on 8 occasions since 1984. 6 of the last 10 winners were last time out winners. Paul Nicholls is 0-16 in this race.
3.20 p.m. – 24 of previous 28 winners before last year’s winner won on their previous start and the previous 17 winners had a run in the same year. 18 of last 27 winners were placed in the first 4 at this meeting in the previous 12 months. The fighting fifth hurdle has featured either the winner or runner up of this race in the previous 5 years. Only 3 winners 9+ years old since 1951. Five-year-olds are 1-88 in this race since 1985.
4.00 p.m. – This race is usually an Edna Bolger production! 14 of the last 16 winners came in the first 3 in the betting. Not a good race for debutants at Cheltenham’s Cross Country course.
Last season’s winner of this race ended a run of 0-56 for British runners. 75 horses under 8 have run in this race and only 1 has won.
4.40 p.m. – Only the 6th running of this race so no strong stats.
5.15 p.m. – All but one of the last 8 winners have been beaten on their first 2 chase starts. Look for the winner to be around the 135 handicap mark. Seven-year-olds have won 6 of the last 7 runnings.
WEDNESDAY 13 MARCH 2013 (known around Cheltenham as ‘Clive’s Birthday day’).
1.30 p.m. – Five and six-year-olds are 1-64 since 1989. Only 2 of the last 29 winners failed to finish in the first 4 last time out. 8 of the last 11 winners finished 1st or 2nd in their last start. Paul Nicholls is 2 placed horses from 14 in this race. J.P. McManus seems to target this race. Watch out for his entries if favoured in the betting and perhaps if trained by Jonjo O’Neill.
2.05 p.m. – A five or six-year-old in the top 6 in the betting who finished 1st or 2nd last time out has won 25 of the last 27. Simples! The Irish have won 4 of the last 7. Willie Mullins has won 2 of the last 3. Only 1 horse has won aged 7+ since 1974. 13 winners of the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle have failed to win this race when contesting it: so a line through Taquin de Seuil?
Only 1 of the last 29 winners did not finish 1st or 2nd last time out. Although Nicky Henderson won this last year, he was 0-26 in this race beforehand.
3.20 p.m. – 11 of the last 12 defending champions in this race failed to double up. 21 of the last 28 winners have won or finished placed at the Queen Mother Champion Chase in the past. The Tingle Creek, though, has featured 8 of the last 12 winners. The last 13 reigning Arkle winners to run in this race have all placed. The Irish have won 5 of the last 10. 11 of the last 14 winners were no bigger than 5/1. Only 1 winner in last 31 was bigger than 11/1. Only 1 winner aged 9+ since 1998.
4.00 p.m. – 6 of the last 8 winners were 2nd season hurdlers. 11 of the last 17 winners raced no more than 3 times earlier in the season. Only 5 of last 19 winners had not won a race earlier in the season. No winner rated higher than 147 since 1999. Only 1 winner carried more than 11 stone 9 lbs.
4.40 p.m. – 7 of the 8 winners were beaten on their first 2 hurdling starts. 5 of the 8 winners enter this race on the back of a win. 7 of the 8 runners had a run in previous 25 days. 5 of the 8 winners were French-bred or French imports. Fillies have won 50% of the runnings, which, given the 9:1 ratio of male to female in this race, is a strong stat. David Pipe seems to target this race with consistent winning and placed form.
5.15 p.m. – 15-5 to the Irish in this champion bumper. Willie Mullins has won 7 of the last 16. Only 2 of last 20 winners were beaten on their previous start. Irish-bred horses are 16/20 in this race. 14 of the 20 winners came from the first 6 in the betting.
AFTER 5.15 p.m. – The key stat over time is that I have consumed 3+ Guinnesses on my birthday in each of the last 10 years. This strong stat is set to continue on this birthday, although there has been a new stat, which revolves around a pint of Kilkenny. Will this new stat take shape this year? Another key stat: year on year, my stomach increases in size. This is a strong stat.
THURSDAY 14 MARCH 2013
1.30 p.m. – Only its 3rd race, so no strong stats.
2.05 p.m. – 6 of the last 7 winners against 8–10 years. Only one five-year-old has won this race since 1974. No winner rated 142+ since 2000. 9 of last 17 winners were last time out winners. Nicky Henderson is 0-22 in this race. Irish have not won in 7 but supplied the last 3 runner ups, so each way punting on an Irish fancy looks an obvious angle in.
2.40 p.m. – Only 1 winner bigger than 6/1 or outside the top 3 in the betting. 13 of last 16 winners have won at Cheltenham before. The Irish are 0-23 in this race.
3.20 p.m. – The Long Walk Hurdle featured 10 of the last 19 World Hurdle winners. No five-year-old has won since 1972. Irish have not won this in 18 years. 17 of the last 19 runners ran in last year’s festival. Last 11 winners came from first 4 in the betting.
4.00 p.m. – 11 consecutive double-figure winners before last year’s. Only 2 of last 25 winners had handicap marks of 141+. Only 2 placed horses from 22 attempts for Paul Nicholls. Williams and Pipe seem to be the trainers to focus on. 18 of the last 21 winners finished in the first 4 in their last start.
4.40 p.m. – Last year, the first 4 finishers came from the top 6 in the handicap. Only 4 of last 33 winners were aged 7 or younger. 15 of the last 19 winners were aged 8 or 9. Last 12 winners all ran over 3 miles in their previous start. No Irish winner in 30 runnings. One placed horse in 14 runnings for Paul Nicholls.
After 4.40 p.m. – The key stat is that my liver will be waving a white flag, as it has done in each of the last 10 years. And with St Patrick’s Day on the 17 March, a real standout stat is that I will not be drinking any of the black stuff on 14, 15 or 16 March. This has been a really strong stat in recent years.
FRIDAY 15 MARCH 2013
1.30 p.m. – 17 of the last 19 winners were last time out winners. Last 7 winners were all rated 138+. 7 of the last 9 winners did not have their hurdling debut until at least December. Only 2 of the last 21 winners did not have their most recent start in February.
2.05 p.m. – Last 9 winners all carried 11 stone or less. The last 7 winners were all rated in the 130s. Only 1 horse has carried more than 11 stone 8 lbs and placed since 1979. The Irish have won 6 of the last 10. Five-year-olds have won 8 of the last 14 races since 1997. 7 of the last 11 winners contested either the Betfair Hurdle or Boylesports.com Hurdle.
2.40 p.m. – Only 8 winners so not huge statistical base. 6 of the last 8 winners had run at Cheltenham previously, 5 of those having 2+ runs at the venue. 6 of the last 8 winners had run at 3+ miles previously. Seven-year-olds or older a positive for this contest with their apparent improved stamina.
Only 1 winner outside the front 5 in the betting. All 8 winners ran 3 times over hurdles at least.
3.20 p.m. – Last 13 winners have previously won a grade 1 race. The King George has highlighted 9 of the last 13 Gold Cup winners. Ten-year-olds are only 1/18 in this race. Only 1 winner in last 14 failed to win earlier in the season. 9 of last 12 winners had won or finished 2nd at Cheltenham previously. Last 12 winners have come from first 3 in the betting. 11 of the last 12 winners had a BHA rating of 166+ entering this race.
4.00 p.m. – 20 of last 22 winners aged 10 or younger. 22 of last 27 winners were last time out winners. 14 of the last 15 win or placed horses over the last 5 years were all last time out winners. 7 of the last 12 winners were sent off 14/1+
4.40 p.m. – Only 4 years worth of stats is not enough .
5.15 p.m. – 9 of last 12 winners rated between 129–134 and they also paid out in winning straight forecasts in 2000, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2008. Nicky Henderson is the English trainer to follow (the race is in honour of his father) and the Irish have a good record. Only 1 winner since 1990 after over 45 days break between races.
And there we have it. These are the standout stats I spoke about last weekend. I’ve picked out all of the strongest stats for you. I hope you can put them to good use for the festival.
I’m keen to follow that strong Guinness-drinking stat that seems to have followed me for a while now during the month of March.
And if you want more stats, then www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk has all the key football stats you’ll need for this weekend. We’ll be broadcasting against at http://drtfootballtest.blogspot.com. Eamon came last weekend and backed Marseille at odds of 17.5. Marseille won 2-1. We’ll be starting at 2.30 p.m. on Saturday so make sure you pop along if you’re online and want a glimpse into football trading.
Enjoy the festival and have a great weekend. This time next week, I will be statistically a year older, and this has been a stat that is very strong, having occurred each year since I was born!