I thought Newcatle wouldn’t win at Villa but why did Michael Owen have to ensure they led at alf time – was it something I said? -A very frustrating state of affairs. Yet again, though, we had the opportunity in the match odds market to abck the draw or villa once Newcastle had taken the lead, taking advantage of the enhanced odds in the hope the game would end up as I predicted – ie Newcastle NOT winning.
Again Sunderland posted a 2-0 scoreline against Wigan, as they did with Birmingham at home. THe under 2.5 goal trade was a success early on and the importance of the game was there for all to see.
Lesson learned with the mug punter acca – East Fife, Scottish 3rd division – I went purely by odds. Stuttgart stumbled at home and in hindsight were actually priced too big – compare this to the lay of MAniaspor for example. Galatasary were 1.25 to win at home, Stuttgart were 1.79.
Everything else went like clockwork.
The dutch of the 1st 4 in the 115 Ayr came in with Prince Lanimix’s win, and in Ace of SPies race, reaction to the live market was key – Throne of Power was a sustained gamble at 8/1 in the betting forecast going off at 3/1 with ACE OF SPIES drifting.
The dutches were successful, and the in running trade of Denman went like clockwork.
Basalt ended the night with a victory
EXETER -SOFT GROUND
230
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Group Captain, 7/4 Working Title, 13/2 Luxurix, 7/1 Laredo Sound, 14/1 Overclear, 25/1 Archie Gunn, Stagehand .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: GROUP CAPTAIN hardly won doing handstands at prohibitive odds last time but he’s the type who will raise his game in a better race, and he can head to Cheltenham with his unbeaten record intact. Working Title looked good at Fakenham and rates the main danger, though Laredo Sound can also make his presence felt.[AWJ]
AN unexciting level stakes dutch is available on the first 2 in this race -it’s Group 1 listed and so we can be confident that the odds reflect the chances
405
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Classic Fiddle, 3/1 Rustarix, 5/1 Nor´Nor´East, 11/2 King Louis, 8/1 Keepthedreamalive, 14/1 Silver Sister, 100/1 Brave Jo, Farmer Brent, Flying Dick, Lord West, Montrolin .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not an easy choice between CLASSIC FIDDLE and Rustarix, but Nicky Henderson’s mare looked a fairly safe conveyance on her chasing debut at Fontwell and the stiffer test that this track provides can bring about further improveme
Nor Nor east is a non runner. 5 of the horses ae 66/1 or bigger reducing the fiel of those most likely to 5 runners
King Louis and Rustarix each way for me. This is in the hope Classic Fiddle doesn’t perform
HEREFORD
Good to soft
355
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 My Petra, 9/2 Strawberry, 11/2 Heart Springs, 14/1 The Sneakster, 16/1 Cailin Gruaig Dubh, 20/1 Outclass, 33/1 My Beautiful Loser .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to look beyond MY PETRA, who was comfortably the best of these over hurdles and is with a trainer who can do little wrong at present.[SR]
The main protagonists are reduced to 2 following the absence of Heart Springs. “HArd to look beyond” – yes at 4/7 a reasona ble enough bet. I am very mindful though of Strawberry and the ideal is to include that horse in the equation
With the above in te back of my mind I will chance My Petra here as a single win bet. Those who want to adopt another perspective can back Strawberry to place at similar odds, OR you can create a bet where you win big on Strawberry and break even on My PEtra ( this is assuming the rest of the field are priced correctly.) – just play with the stakes if you want to do this.
At current prices of 1.66 and 3.9 , backing my Petra for £15 and Strawberry for £10 produces a 10p loss on My petra and £14 win on Strawberry
SOme likely dutches at KEmpton – perhaps the strongest being in the 2nd maiden race at 310
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Autumn Blades, 9/4 Prime Factor, 10/1 Honest Value, Mr Rev, 25/1 Tiepie, 66/1 Hiss And Boo, 100/1 Easily Naimd .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: AUTUMN BLADES’s attitude has come into question in some quarters but he did little wrong last time and sets a decent standard with the drop in trip unlikely to trouble him. Prime Factor looks the only real danger.
Again, straight level stakes leaves an 80p loss on AUtumn Blades and £19.50 win on Prime factor. Of course you may like to switch the profit round.
CAUTION – this is a maiden race BUT this early on there have been no market movers (remember the ace of spies race)
LEOPARDSTOWN
Yielding ( I take this to mean heavy?)
245 – I may have missed the boat with J’y vole but will chance a win only bet here to monitor in running – a marked step up in grade is the sticking point though, and in yielding ground , those of a mopre disciplined nature will sit out Leopardstown.
350
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 The Listener, 9/2 Nickname, Snowy Morning, 11/2 Beef Or Salmon, 7/1 Turko, 10/1 Mister Top Notch, 20/1 Rule Supreme, 33/1 Hedgehunter .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The defection of Mossbank has possibly removed the most significant threat to THE LISTENER, who has relative youth on his side in his latest clash with the now 12-year-old Beef Or Salmon. Michael Hourigans’s old warrior should make his huge advantage at the weights count over Snowy Morning, who may outstay Nickname to get into the first three.
Top class race in prospect and, in previous races of this type in Ireland, the result is often not not was expected.
Yielding ground is offputting.What can we glean from the early prices? – The Listener is currently at 9/4 – perhaps a slight drift? I will chance here Nickname and Snowy morning each way – Beef or Salmon is at that age where he should be enjoying Countdown .
FOOTY
WHy did I have to over elaborate in the Villa game yesterday – highly frustrating when the back of Villa was more enticing?
The football today is intriguing and is probably the area I will focus on predominantly for my betting.
130 sees MAn Utd clash at home to MAn City. 2 contrasting fortunes -one part of Manchester are flying, the other stuttering and lacking any bite up front.Looking for anyhting special about the match, we can of course factor in the fact this is a local derby , and as such, takes on greater significance for both teams.
Man Utd have won 5 from 6 , having drawn the last, while Man City are leaking points with 1 win, 2 losses and 3 draws.
If we compare Man City’s performance to a team of similar stature to United, we see they were beaten 3-1 by the Arse.
The last 4 head to heads have produced 2 3-1’s and 2 1-0’s.
I would favour a return to the 3-1 scoreline today for a Man Utd team firing on all cylinders
In their current form ,City should have no chance but how important is the derby factor? It may mean the game is tighter than usual but I cannot see a 1-0 City scoreline and I cannot see United not scoring.
1 goals and 2 goals winning margin is dutchable ,albeit in a very illiquid market.
Asians could offer us a chance of increasing the 1.3 in the match odds market
Man Utd -1.5
If Man Utd win by 2 or more
If Man Utd win by 1
If Man Utd do not win by 2 or more
£190.00
£0.00
-£200.00
Man City +1.0&+1.5
If Man City draw or win
If Man Utd win by 1
If Man Utd win by 2 or more
£256.00
£128.00
-£200.00
£200 stakes here as an example.
Let’s look at the scenarios
If Man Utd win by 2 or more we £190 from bet one and lose £200 from bet 2 ( -£10)
If Man Utd win by 1 we break even bet one and win £128 bet 2 (profit £128)
If Man City draw or win, we lose £200 from bet 1 and win £256 from bet 2 (profit of £56)
Now have I missed something or is the worst case scenario £10 loss? COmbining 2 asians may be a new concept worth following?
Milan at home to Siena may be worth laying for the early part of the game. Siena are coming off the back of a thumping of Roma and will have their tales up. Milan have a couple of 1-0’s under htheir belts and may find it difficult to break through.
Porto away from home at 1/12 – signals goals? – it’s the Carlsberg Cup, probably the most exciting cup in, erm, Portugal. Over 2.5 goals is 1.57 in a very illiquid market. It’s not really caught BEtfairians imaginations!
Chelsea v Liverpool – again following on from my January article we have the pattern of Chelsea NOT losing at home.Priced at 5/6 the home side this indicates it may be tight but the home team expected to at least draw.
Half time /full time is my way in (at least Michael Owen isn’t playing!) and CHelsea/Chelsea, Draw/Chelsea and Draw/Draw are all backable as the shortest odds are 3.45.
I could lay Liverpool straight atodds of 5.
Real MAdrid have a superb opportunity to consolidate at the top of La Liga after Barca got a draw yesterday. They are priced to do so against Vallodolid, and I expect them to win.
I’m going to follow this game in running I think, as Real have often flattered to deceive in the first half of games and frustrated home fans. If 0-0 at half time, I’ll pop on at enhanced odds.