Backing O’Maley and Jean Le Poisson resulted in a 1-2 and a profit to level stakes equivalent of 2/1. It’s not rocket science is it? ” A hot little contest” -the key words to allow us to presume that the favourite could be worth opposing – this requires no form analysis !
The Green hat pulled up and Dawn Ride just missed out of the places finishing 4th in a poor maiden chase on bad ground. Strathraird placed for each way backers and Miss Pross finished nowhere -travelling superbly mid race, this was reflected in prices, but the warning about the ground should have been heeded especially if seeing the horses in previous races pretty much tread water. It’s no coincidence that the poorer performances came at Sedgefield in its soft to heavy ground.
You see why I talk about multiple winners in handicap races all the time – Fast Freddie was a prime example – what separated him from Confidentiality was his price telling us his winning sequence was likely to end. Grand Palace finished 2nd at 9/2 for each way backers and really should have won, trading at 1.2 in running, but with each way betting we get our stakes back as we wait for a winner to come along – and that winner came in the form of Mister Elegant, albeit at 5/2. Quiet Times had problems with the draw and this was sufficient for the well backed selection to get in front.
The lay of Valencia came off and I knew my fate with the Liverpool lay after a matter of minutes and a penalty – ho hum!. A Duncan Norvelle inspired Chasetown snatched a late goal. The Bhoys returned to winning ways with a comprehensive 4-0 routing of Falkirk. Now you could take your lead in matches like this from previous results (4-1 last time these 2 met) or from teams of similar ability ( Rangers) meeting the same team (3-1) – you could assume over 3.5 gals would be the bet. I went for Celtic/Celtic half time /full time simply due to 2 factors – they were at home, and they had drawn their last 2 matches – hence this was really a must win. So a number of factors in determining the bet -sequencing / previous meetings/ playing at home. 1.69 about a 1/5 shot is very decent odds.
HEXHAM
Early morning inspection and heavy ground expected means, like Sedgefield yesterday, any selections made will be open up to surprises and are less likely to bring home the bacon. In fact, I just read that Hexham is abandoned
KEMPTON
820
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Ginger Pop, Regal Royale, 4/1 Tilsworth Charlie, 9/2 Strut The Stage, 7/1 Angel Voices, 10/1 Auction Oasis, 14/1 Earl Compton, 16/1 Micky Mac .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: REGAL ROYALE may at last have been found the right opportunity and he gets the vote with the blinkers brought back into play. Strut The Stage and Ginger Pop look best of the others.[EMW]
The straight 8 makes each way betting appealing. Hopefully we can leave out the perceived 3 outsiders leaving 5 to fight for the places . Strut the stage each way appeals in a tight race at the head of the market
LEICESTER
Heavy ground and a precautionary inspection should alert you to tread warily at Leicester today.
1240
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Down´s Folly, 5/1 Sheriff Roscoe, 6/1 Spear Thistle, 13/2 Silver Serg, 8/1 Leopold, 12/1 Knock Boy, 14/1 Alpha Juliet, 33/1 Beesneez, Curradoon, 40/1 Silver Twist .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DOWN’S FOLLY has been off for a fair time but a repeat of either of his chasing efforts just over a year ago would make him hard to beat. Sheriff Roscoe, surely capable of better than he showed on his first start over fences, is the likeliest danger.[JN]
Good ground on the chase course? A favourite off for some time – 3 horses at 66/1 will reduce each way candidates down to 6. Silver Serg is positioned centrally to be competitive for a
place and is a good each way candidate
SOUTHWELL
The new surface had its first meeting yesterday so today is the 2nd day and I think we should still tread warily at Southwell.
230 – mention for Dart, although 1/2 is a very restrictive price for a maiden who has been consistently placing in previous races, BUT has yet to tackle the all weather
A no bet for me in the circumstances
A very quiet day on the racing front with few standout opportunities
FOOTY
Champions League continues and its wise to research team standings before punting – do they need to win or draw? Are they already through? This will determine the approach to the games.
This is exactly the scenario Man Utd find themselves in – a game where fringe players will probably get a run out?
Team news will be key today
http://www.uefa.com/competitions/ucl/index.html will provide you with details about the games
You’ll be able to read that the Roma Man Utd game is a nothing to play for game – both sides have qualified first and 2nd making this a no bet game.
Barcelona have already qualified top of the group and Stuttgart really have nothing to play for and will not qualify even if they win. Samuel Etoo and Deco return and Messi is rested. With Barcelona at home, this game is a no pressure game and I will chance an over 2.5 goals trade in the hope of an open game and fans’ expectations to be entertained.
Again, with Arsenal qualifying already, they will field a weakened team ( or at least not the first team) as they play Slavia Prague at home. Chelsea are the opponents at the weekend . With that in mind Arsenal should still win ,and backing them to win to nil may be a way to enhance the 1/4 for the straight victory. Covering the 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0 options I think – looking at last nights results, all of the shorties scored 2 or more. This is a pressureless game for Arsenal which could set it up for goals
Rangers only need a draw tonight to qualify and I expect them to do it, albeit in typically nailbiting fashion. With that in mind, a lay of Lyon looks a good call although I suspect Lyon may score this evening
I am going to stay with Getafe this evening to continue their great start in La Liga under Laudrup – 8/13 is reasonable although the cautious will lay the home team .
If previous trends are repeated I expect over 2.5 goals in Torquay’s Conference Premier clash with Farsely
So check out http://www.uefa.com/competitions/ucl/index.html yourself and come up with your own conclusions based on the information provided. Instantly you can see the teams who have nothing to play for and the games to avoid.