Masterminded placed with little effort at all. A great bet! SAnvean – I hope you looked at this race and noticed it as a probability race. 1.11 I got on Sanvean too with numerous non runners.
Market movers – well Cheltenham started well for 16/1 system bettors with 11/1 winner Tricky Trickster (20/1 in the betting forecast and flagged up here yesterday) Gracies Gift won at 9/1 too, another mover, and there were a couple of winners sub 5/1 as well as placers, including Ortega 2nd at 14/1
At Cheltenham, Ruby and Willie Mullins did the business on Mikael d’Haguenet and MAsterminded won with McCoy rowing a boat on the other horse as Ruby just sat still, had a cup of tea and told the horse to quicken up.
Rite of PAssage came 3rd under Pat Smullen
Cheltenham today begins with a 7/1 the field race – says it all really!
205 Cheltenham
BETTING FORECAST: 13/2 Don´t Push It, 8/1 Green Mile, 9/1 Buena Vista, 10/1 Ballydub, P´Tit Fute, Synchronised, 11/1 Pennek, 14/1 Scriptwriter, 16/1 Maucaillou, 20/1 Blue Shark, Galient, The Rall, 25/1 Hills Of Aran, Kayf Aramis, The Very Man, 33/1 Heathcliff, Mister Gloss, Ringaroses, The Sliotar, 40/1 Foreman, Lupanar, Middleton Dene, 50/1 Indian Pipe Dream, Raslan.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BUENA VISTA is very interesting, having run a good fifth off a 7lb higher mark in this race last year and after strongly suggesting that he was on the way back to peak form here on New Year’s Day. He has the blinkers back on today, has the look of a horse who has been trained with this race in mind and makes a decent bit of appeal, despite the presence of quite a few tempting alternatives. Pennek, who promises to be well-served by the demands of this race, may be next best, ahead of Ballydub, Synchronised and Scriptwriter.[MCu]
24 runners down to 22, 2 slight movers in Ballydub (6/1 in places) and Galient (16/1 in places)
Not quite as big as Tricky Trickster
Another race to avoid!
220 HEXHAM
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Sa Suffit, 11/10 The Duke´s Speech, 10/1 Soubriquet, 33/1 Pendle Forest.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks between SA SUFFIT (nap) and The Duke’s Speech and preference is for the former, who is less exposed of the pair over fences and who turned in his best effort for his in-form yard at Haydock last time. [RY]
Soft ground here and a clear outsider – 3 horses vying for 2 places 1.19 and 1.3 the front 2 to place
240 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Voy Por Ustedes, 6/1 Imperial Commander, 7/1 Our Vic, Tidal Bay, 14/1 Gwanako, 20/1 Monet´s Garden, 25/1 L´Antartique, Schindlers Hunt, 50/1 Mister McGoldrick, 100/1 Knight Legend.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: VOY POR USTEDES should be very hard to beat, having improved since being stepped up in trip and with his liking for Cheltenham well proven. Though he only has a marginal edge on Our Vic if both show up in peak form, last year’s winner disappointed in this season’s sole start and has always been prone to a bad run. As such, last season’s runaway Arkle winner Tidal Bay may well be next best.[MCu]
PRice gapper here and Choc Thornton has not had a winner yet at the Festival ( not like him) He got a kick in the head yesterday ( or so it looked) so hopefully he is firing on all cylinders today) A great place only prospect here. Depending on the place price, I might do what I did with Quevargo, back to place and put the potential profit on the horse to win. Break even if placed but boosted winnings if the horse wins 1.22 to place, perhaps too short for my place/win idea
305 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Madison Belle, 7/2 My Sweet Georgia, Princess Cagliari, 5/1 Gone Hunting, 7/1 La Capriosa, 10/1 Denton Diva, 14/1 Special Cuvee, 33/1 Naywye.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Madison Belle has already won four times at this course but the suspicion is that she may be ideally suited by 7f and this could hand the edge to MY SWEET GEORGIA (nap). Simon Callaghan’s runner came out the best of the pair over C&D on her penultimate start and is fancied to extend her unbeaten C&D run with the first time visor replacing the blinkers. [RY]
8 runners reduced to 7 – still 3 the place on BEtfair? Hope so!
Joint 2nd fav a non runner should make the front 2’s job easier, and My Sweet Georgia the horse who has leapfrogged into favouratism
NOTE -this is a claimer and in races of this type, shocks can often occur – the “outsider” at 16/1 tells us this is a tightish race
320 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Kasbah Bliss, 7/2 Punchestowns, 6/1 Big Buck´s, 12/1 Fair Along, 25/1 Blazing Bailey, Mobaasher, 33/1 Powerstation, Tazbar, 40/1 Mighty Man, 50/1 Pettifour, 66/1 Shakervilz, 100/1 Afsoun, No Refuge, Whatuthink.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Francois Doumen won this with Baracouda in 2002 and 2003 and can be on the mark again with KASBAH BLISS, who gave Inglis Drever a real fight in this last year. He has since taken his form to a new level on the Flat and could not have been more impressive back over hurdles at Haydock last month. Big Buck’s and Punchestowns, who fought out the finish of the Cleeve Hurdle over C&D in January, look the pick of the home team.[AC]
Only 4 horses sub 25/1 here at Chelters, and another perceived banker in Kasbah Bliss- I haven’t got a clu who the jockey is. 2nd fav has Cheltenham winner Barry Geraghty on board
Looks a great dutching race for me with seemingly only 4 contenders
Good place only chances 1.26 and 1.7 to place the front 2
415 HEXHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Nevsky Bridge, 4/1 Overbranch, Zaffarella, 13/2 Just Posh, 7/1 Solway Sunset, 10/1 Ethel Briggs, 12/1 Mini Minster, Pimbo Lane, 14/1 Watch The Wind.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: OVERBRANCH has a good record for this rider and she probably has another race in her at this trip off her current mark. Nevsky Bridge is solid enough but if Zaffarella were to be back on song after her disappointing Newcastle run, she’d be the one to beat.[EMW]
Overbranch a clight move into 5/2
425 STHL
ETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Arganil, 9/2 Wotashirtfull, 5/1 The Tatling, 13/2 Rebel Duke, 7/1 Haajes, Pawan, 8/1 Canadian Danehill, 33/1 Obe Gold,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Most of these have been running against one another and there is not much to choose between them, but ARGANIL has pretensions to better class and it can pay to chance him taking to the Fibresand. The Tatling may pose the biggest threat.[FC]
9 runners down the 6 and the favourite remains – still 3 the place on Betfair? If so, would be a great probability bet 3 the place and 1.46 to place Arganil
440 CHELT
BETTING FORECAST: 7/1 Poker De Sivola, 8/1 Shouldhavehadthat, 9/1 Aggie´s Lad, 12/1 Alexanderthegreat, Newbay Prop, 14/1 High Chimes, 16/1 Character Building, 20/1 Bowleaze, Double Dizzy, Go For One, Irish Raptor, 22/1 Oodachee, 25/1 Arteea, Butler´s Cabin, Ice Tea, Le Duc, Le Toscan, Pretty Star, Sherwoods Folly, 33/1 Alright Now M´Lad, Brooklyn Breeze, Openide, 40/1 Without A Doubt, 50/1 Warpath.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Ferdy Murphy continues to prove his ability to produce one trained to the minute for this meeting and POKER DE SIVOLA is taken to reverse Newbury form with the main threat Shouldhavehadthat. The selection would surely have shown improved form but for a heavy fall at Wetherby but his mark was not altered and it’s reassuring his trainer has reported him to have shown no ill effects in a recent school at Doncaster. Venetia Williams has possibilities with her trio, notably Alexanderthegreat, while it will be interesting to see how much Arteea and Le Toscan thrive with David Pipe and which of the Tony Martin duo attracts the money.[PJ]
Slight move on fav into 9/2 – has Nina on board
505 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Swiss Act, 7/2 Benedict Spirit, 4/1 Orkney, 9/2 Supsonic, 14/1 Navajo Joe, 20/1 Raucous.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Orkney will need to pull out more to complete his hat-trick and SWISS ACT, who ran a fair race in defeat at Wolverhampton last time, could be the one to be with here.[PSm]
3rd fav a non runner and Swiss act remains fav – 2 horses at 14/1 and it would look like 3 vying for 2 places 1.48 to place Swiss Act
535 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Safebreaker, 6/1 King Of Legend, 8/1 Nautical, Provost, 10/1 Haroldini, 11/1 Komreyev Star, 12/1 Casino Night, Singora Lady, 14/1 Run Free, 20/1 Billy Bowmore, Newgate, 25/1 Maidanni, Sheriff´s Silk, 33/1 Wilmington.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SAFEBREAKER is probably still weighted to be competitive and is taken to confirm C&D superiority over Nautical. The biggest threats may be King Of Legend, if he handles this surface, and Provost, if he’s fit for this first run since before Christmas.[PJ]
PRice gapper at first sighting on the betting forecast, but the live market tells us comething completely different.
Provost is now 6/4 with Safebreaker 7/2 1.47 and 1.63 to place
Provost hasn’t run since December 2008 but looks to be fancied!
820 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: Evs King Of Dixie, 6/5 Blythe Knight, 12/1 Elna Bright, 25/1 Can Can Star.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This promises to develop into a tactical affair, but that is not a scenario that should trouble KING OF DIXIE who has made all before and is more tactically versatile than his only serious rival Blythe Knight.[GN]
3 horses now – Elna Bright remains at 12/1 – 2 places and 2 clear favs. Good probability race 1.09 and 1.11 to place the front 2 ( illiquid market)
850 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Prince Charlemagne, 13/2 Carlton Scroop, 8/1 Fantasy Ride, 10/1 Bernabeu, Paddy Rielly, Postage, 12/1 Imperium, 14/1 Phoenix Hill, Sir Haydn, Tecktal, 20/1 Generous Lad, Good Effect, Rettorical Lad, 33/1 Lough Beg.
Generous Lad the mover 11/1 at present
920 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Green Agenda, 5/1 Foreign Investment, 7/1 Fyelehk, 9/1 Litenup, 10/1 Pedregal, 12/1 Kamanja, Miss Mojito, 16/1 Thewaytosanjose, Tricky Trev, 25/1 Dark Ranger, Maison D´Or, 33/1 Paymaster In Chief, Persian Tomcat.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: GREEN AGENDA (nap) was readily on top at Lingfield once the race began in earnest and looks to have come back an improved performer. He can get the better of another that should also relish the extra distance, Foreign Investment, in a race which is not all that competitive despite the large field.[GN]
Again a price gapper
Again a Price gapper in a class 6 0-60 handicap and they usually are very effective. BUT here, Foreign Investment is 7/4, as is Green Agenda.
A significant move! 1.38 and 1.48 the front 2 to place
SHORTLISTERS
240 CHELTENHAM – Voy Por Estedes at 1.22 has a great place only chance. PRice gappers at the FEstival are all running to expectations. I hope this continues today
320 CHELENHAM – Kasbah Bliss is another shortie in a race where only 4 runners are under 25/1 Probability wise, then, we have hopefully expect this horse to be competitive for the places 1.26 the place is reasonable. Punchestowns at 1.7 is a huge price considering he is considered the main threat and has Barry Geraghty ( twice a winner already this year) on board
820 KEMPTON – 3 horse race – one clear outsider – 1.09 the fav King of Dixie to place -a great probability chance
ONE A DAY
Stick with Voy Por Estedes today I think.