nice win for Samuel Charles – always worth looking out for when the near market rival is a non runner. Pity Masalah could only manage 2nd place as it would have been a clean sweep yesterday with Nantes impressive 2-0 victors at a tasty 2/1.
Sole 3 into 1 system selection won making it 3 from 3 in the last few days – signs of confidence?
Soft, heavy in places at Folkstone
It’s difficult to approach early season flat races especially with soft ground to contend with. 3 early season maiden races make little appeal especially with long lay offs, debutants and soft ground as already said. this leaves us with tight handicaps with no real angles in.
As an aside, it’s worth, if possible, looking at the live betting market when we approach maidens.
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Ivestar, 2/1 Golden Penny, 11/2 Director´s Chair, 20/1 Ogmore Junction, 50/1 Dickie Valentine, 66/1 Sharp Indian
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Golden Penny has fair claims on the pick of his turf form last year and represents a yard that was 5-12 with 3yos here last year. He should go close if sharp after a break but may struggle to cope with IVESTAR, who is less exposed, showed improved form at this trip last autumn and has an official rating of 82.[DM]
A 3 horse race if ever there was on but how to approach it? the speculative can opt for Directors chair each way but with only 2 the place we need one of the market principles to be under par.
We can eek out a marginal profit with level stakes on Betafir on the front 2 with profit loaded on Golden Penny. If you think Golden Penny will place then 1.43 is reasonable enough
Soft ground at Wetherby made even better by the first on the card- yes ladies and gentlemen,forget the Gold Cup, forget the NAtional and prepare for a 25 runner conditional jockeys handicap hurdle (class 5) in soft ground – YELP!
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Compromiznotension, 9/2 All For The Cause, King In Waiting, 15/2 Sea Venture, 11/1 Braddock Island, Terenzium, 20/1 Divvys Dream, 22/1 Golden Run, 28/1 Sheriff Hutton, 33/1 Oswie, 40/1 Celtic Saloon, 66/1 Obara D´Avril, Peas ´n Beans, Vie A Deux
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: COMPRIZNOTENSION is readily preferred, having been a bit unfortunate not to have won a C&D maiden hurdle on quickish ground last time and with a heavy-ground Flat win showing that he acts on testing ground. King In Waiting is the main danger
I have always liked following Compromizenotension and there is a hint of a price gap here, but 2 horses are in close proximity and Compromize is at 11/8 early doors.
I will chance a level stakes on the first 3 ,engineering a break even on Compromiznotension with Terenzium and Sea venture the flies in the ointment.
BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 King Jack, 7/1 La Pantera Rosa, 10/1 Farmaland, Fine Parchment, 14/1 Cote D´Argent, 25/1 Mister Nelson, 33/1 Petrus De Sormain, Ruby Sunday, 66/1 Bambino Rossi
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This should be a straightforward task for KING JACK, whose form is some way above that of his rivals. La Pantera Rosa can follow him home.[RY]
No reason to disagree with Spotlight here and La Pantera Rosa each way – hopefully ground will become more testing as the day progresses.
Mention for Brook no argument – another horse I like a lot and have won with before but a niggle that I’m a race too late?
3 into 1
Did Barca lose at the weekend because they had one eye on the Champions League? These one offs are difficult to weight up, what with the away goal scenario in play meaning home teams must, ideally , not concede.
Schalke at 3.75 are layable for me, to monitor in running of course, life would be made a lot easier by Barca scoring early and FIRST.
With the news that Fergie has resigned ( April fool I think?) to be replaced by Keith chegwin Man Utd look far too good for a Roma team without Totti. Again, with the away goal factoring, I will chance an under 2.5 goals trade. Again 3.25 is layable for Roma again with trading in mind.