How close was Refinement to starting the day with a 10/1 bang! A superb McCoy drive foiled at the line. Celestial Halo’s win boosted the coffers . I plumped for Kauto and took a massive 75p loss on Denman although got some returns at a huge 1.39 for the place on denman.
The dutch at Fakenham came off, Book of Facts unplaced.
Rollin and Tumblin won easily.
Le Havre won and I shouldn’t have got involved in Troyes – from now on it’s Nantes and le HAvre to focus on in Ligue 2.
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Meydan Dubai, 5/2 Elizabeth Swann, 9/2 Veni Bidi Vici, 10/1 Night Premiere, 12/1 Erlydors, Irish Music, 20/1 Coole Dodger, 100/1 Arniecoco, Estella Mai, Shabnaam, Sidestreet ,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This is quite a strong maiden and the pick of those with form looks to be MEYDAN DUBAI, who produced some useful juvenile efforts on turf. Elizabeth Swann also has a bright future and is feared, along with newcomer Veni Bidi Vici
With Meydan Dubai out , this looks to concern 3 with Erlydors clipped into 4/1 – significant? We can’t tell with this race going off at 650 this evening.
I’ll chance Elizabeth Swann tonight , preference for the place only albeit at poor odds -a string of 2nd’s may be turned into a win now with the main rival out.
LIMERICK – HEAVY GROUND
Laying Let Yourself Go in the heavy ground, if showing at 7/4 may give us a return.
A card full of maiden hurdles = bookie benefit day
ETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Excusez Moi, 9/2 Matsunosuke, 5/1 Conquest, King Orchisios, 7/1 Maltese Falcon, 20/1 Stoneacre Lad, 25/1 Silver Prelude, Tartatartufata, 33/1 Esteem Machine, Merlin´s Dancer
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This is likely to be run at a blistering gallop and the ones to concentrate on are EXCUSEZ MOI, Matsunosuke and Conquest. Preference is for the first-named, whose fitness is assured and who comes here in much better form than he did when only ninth in this last yea
Potential price gapper here mirrored in the morning price market.
Top RPR – top topspeed – 1st last time out – fresh – course winner – postdata selection – familiar jockey
NEGATIVES – listed event – horse dropping in trip – 5 furlongs a tricky distance – scoop 6 race leads us to suggest it is not that easily solved.
In conclusion I always like price gappers in listed events – the price gap seems to take on added significance. May be worth support, preference for the place only, or prehaps Matsunosoke each way.
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Riguez Dancer, 4/1 Hello Nod, Isidore Bonheur, 6/1 Lazy Darren, 16/1 Currahee, 33/1 Bramcote Lorne, Canny Bay, Sam Cruise, 50/1 Easby Park, Hestherelad, My Bobby, Mysterious World, Parisian Miss, Tempo Sound
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks to concern four, the previous winners, Hello Nod, Lazy Darren and RIGUEZ DANCER together with the decent Flat performer Isidore Bonheur, who returning to jumping. Riguez Dancer, who won on fast ground on the Flat, and is improving steadily over jumps, makes the most appeal.[CR]
I know to my cost that taking short prices in novice hurdles should carry a wealth warning. but why is the horse now trading at 5/6 early doors.
Not quite in the classic price gapper territiry with the close proximity of the 4/1 horses.
Looking at the betting forecast this chould concern 4 horses and perhaps LAzy Darren each way will give us a run for our money incase the fav consents to not run to his price.
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Kings Euro, 4/1 Dr Hart, 5/1 Stagecoach Opal, 13/2 Michael Muck, 7/1 The Real Deal, 8/1 Gidam Gidam, Malakiya, 50/1 Desperate Dex
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Kings Euro comes into this in good form but the handicapper has taken no chances with him after his narrow success last time at Newbury. He is certainly worth considering, as is handicap debutant Dr Hart, but the vote goes to STAGECOACH OPAL, who is well treated on his best efforts and is from a yard going great guns at present
Kings Euro has now won 3 on the bounce and the 5/2 tells us that this may not be his day. The straight 8 here today allows for each way betting. The betting forecaster is having difficulty splitting the field – look at the congestion between 4/1 -8/1. Only one outsider – Michael muck and Gidam Gidam each way for me – highly speculative but this is a Saturday so you never know
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Punchestowns, 9/2 Auroras Encore, 6/1 Ouzbeck, 7/1 Busker Royal, 9/1 Ogee, 12/1 Ballynalty Express, 20/1 Yeoman Spirit, 25/1 Newby Abbey, Sir Winston, 33/1 Isaac Newton, 50/1 Changing Lanes, Job One, Lets Get Cracking, Thegalleryman, 100/1 Ardfry, Colonial Jim, Katy´s Classic, Weet For Ever
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PUNCHESTOWNS (nap) beat similar opposition on his hurdling introduction at Sandown and, with that positive experience to draw upon, he’s fancied to successfully give weight to dangers Auroras Encore and Ouzbeck.[BDO]
Potential price gapper here – price gap accentuated in the early market – Punchestowns now at 10/11.
POSITIVES – HEnderson/Fitzgerald combination – winner last time out – 13/14 tips – joint top RPR – top topspeed – postdata selection – drew clear last time out
NEGATIVES – 17 runners (but 11 are 33/1 or bigger) – novices hurdle – no “hard to beat” or ultra positive statements from Spotlight’s verdict or Spotlight – running under a penalty- the biggest weight the horse has carried
The lack of Spotlight positivity puts me off. There are arguments for each way backing.
I will create abreak even on Punchestowns and back the next 4 – this means bigger stakes on the fav -at current prices the ratio is £26 for the fav and £6 the rest
3 INTO 1
Rollin and Tumblin at 11/8 -minimum of fuss yesterday
nosferatu too short to be considered a bet.
Sprosser runs in a 3 mile handicap -market leader currently – we’;; get a ncie price ,around 9/4 currently ,should he oblige
First game of interest – Bayern away having rested some against Anderlecht mid week.
Over 3.5 goals is tradeable at 2.88 – previous results show Bayern win by 2 clear goals at least. Safer option over 2.5 goals at 1.75 currently.
Bayern/Bayern and Draw/Bayern pays 1/2 with break even on the draw
MAn Utd are 1/6 away to Derby ,reeling from humiliation at Stamford Bridge. At their gaff against equivalent opposition Derby have lost 2-0 and 2-1 but will they stem the flow this afternoon. 1/6 suggests not.
A tendency to get at least one means the clean sheet is out of the window. Even if Man Utd are 3 up, they won’t be overtly concerned by a Derby goal.
Half time/full time United enhances the match odds, bumping them up to 1.61.
Over 3.5 goals looks tradeable if United replicate last 2 matches. the 2.44 should reduce amply with a couple of goals to make it a good trade.
Liverpool again look bettable propositions and at 2/7 at Anfield should beat Reading
Draw/Liverpool in isolation at 4.8 could come in if they consent to leave the Scousers sweating til the 2nd half. of course breaking even on Liverpool/Liverpool sacrifices some profit but is safer.
First goalscorer -Torres at 4, Gerrard at 6.6 and Babel at 7.8 are dutchable to level stakes given the shortest price is 4
HAlf time score, 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 is dutchable with a nice payout if Reading nick the goal . In recent weeks Liverpool have tended to take their time getting the first goal
Chelsea are almost identical odds to Everton last week at the Stadium of Shi, sorry Light.
Could give tell us that a 1-0 to the away side is the most probable scoreline, with the Black Cats holding on for some time
1.85 under 2.5 goals is tradeable for the first 20 minutes as the Black Cats should keep chelsea at bay but eventually succumb to one goal and perhaps a late goal.
Correct score dutch 0-0. 0-1, 1-2, could be profitable as I can see Chelsea winning but not by a Derby type scoreline
Big odds mean stakes can be smaller
Luton look layable at home at 7/4 against Oldham who they’ve drawn twice.
With Gretna is disarray this week, the 2/7 about ABerdeen looks a steal. Chance half time full time at 1.86? Apparently Gretna are in trouble as a club. I am no expert on Scottish football but this may be exploitable by opposing them today
2 draws on the trot for the gunners is unacceptable if they want to get the Title. Boro are sticky opposition to the Gunners in recent history.
Winning margin 1 and 2 goals is dutchable to level stakes.
I get the feeling the Arse could be layable at 1.32 for minimal liability during the early part of the match. Boro really are like Liverpool were – totally unreliable as a betting proposition – which Boro will turn up today?
This is likely to be close ( he said preparing some egg to put on his face a bit later on) and score line 1-1, 2-1, 1-0 , 2-0 can be backed to level stakes
MUG PUNTER ACCA
A welcome return for the mug punter in the expectation my renewed faith in Liverpool playing to their price can be rewarded
|1||Aberdeen v Gretna (Backing Aberdeen @ 1.31)|
|2||Derby v Man Utd (Backing Man Utd @ 1.17)|
|3||Liverpool v Reading (Laying Reading @ 26)|
|4||Sunderland v Chelsea (Laying Sunderland @ 9.88)|
|5||Olympiacos v Atromitos (Laying Atromitos @ 57.82)|
|6||Arsenal v Middlesbrough (Laying Middlesbrough @ 20.8)|
|7||Cottbus v B Munich (Laying Cottbus @ 17.53)|
|1,2,3,4,5,6 and 7||2.0||£100.00||£100.00|
Evens return is reasonable here – reliance on wins for United and Aberdeen (see previous argument for backing them)
Potential sticking points are Boro and Sunderland – could nick 1-0’s ?
This one is for those who eat 3 shredded wheat
|1||Cottbus v B Munich (Backing B Munich @ 1.35)|
|2||Aberdeen v Gretna (Backing Aberdeen @ 1.31)|
|3||Derby v Man Utd (Backing Man Utd @ 1.17)|
|4||Liverpool v Reading (Backing Liverpool @ 1.26)|
|5||Sunderland v Chelsea (Laying Sunderland @ 9.61)|
|6||Olympiacos v Atromitos (Backing Olympiacos @ 1.17)|
|7||Arsenal v Middlesbrough (Laying Middlesbrough @ 19.45)|
|8||Club Brugge v Molenbeek (Backing Club Brugge @ 1.26)|
|1,2,3,4,5,6,7 and 8||4.51||£100.00||£351.00|
4.51 tells us the chance of success!