Everything placed yesterday which was good! Garde Champetre showed why Edna Bolger is your first stop for cross country horses
125 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Big Fella Thanks, 5/2 West End Rocker, 5/1 Ballyfitz, 11/2 Gone To Lunch, 15/2 Dashing George, 14/1 Mill Side, 100/1 Dasher Reilly, 150/1 Mr Parson.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Much will depend on jumping over these fences, which are so demanding for a novice. Gone To Lunch is entitled to plenty of respect after a better effort over fences last time but this may boil down to a battle between BIG FELLA THANKS and West End Rocker, who are closely matched on last month’s form at Chepstow when both made a promising start over fences in the race won by high-class hurdler Wichita Lineman. Provided Big Fella Thanks avoids a repeat of the mistake two out that day which might just have made the difference, he may just edge it
The ideal for place backers – 8 runners – 2 “perceived” outsiders and Millfield at 20/1 reduce the field of potential candidates to 5 of which 3 will place. Guess what! Nicholls /Walsh partner the favourite (again!)
Soft ground and the fabled Cheltenham fences the concern for novices 2.8/1.39
435 GREAT LEIGHS
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Doncosaque, 3/1 Mootriba, 8/1 Border Maid, 10/1 Cavendish Road, Hold The Bucks, 14/1 Tarawa Atoll, 16/1 Duke´s Emerald, 50/1 Ringo Zaar.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A big drop in class for DONCOSAQUE whose best effort came when runner-up in a Wolverhampton maiden in September and he has plenty in hand of these rivals on that effort
8 runners reduced to 7 – check on BEtfair if it still pays out 3 the place One 80/1 shot can hopefully be discounted .Nice price gap between the first 2 and the rest of the field augurs well for place betting but this is a class 5 2 year old claimer 1.94 / 1.12
1245 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Heads Onthe Ground, 4/1 Drombeag, 5/1 Never Compromise, 7/1 Tawnies, 10/1 What Odds, 12/1 Berkley, 16/1 Battle Axe, 20/1 Ballycarron Lad, Jaspers Dream, Paddy Mo, Russian Buck, 25/1 George´s Friend, Lulumar, 33/1 Misty´s Express, Pondhill Lad, 50/1 Rates Assessor.
Another Edna Bolger hot pot at the head of affairs here but heavy ground. Still, we should get a reasonable run for our money if being a little more adventurous 2.54 / 1.25 (market not fully formed)
1230 UTTOXETER
ETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Cape Tribulation, 3/1 Phoudamour, 4/1 Ogee, 5/1 Quail, 6/1 Brayford Lad, 14/1 Iconoclast, 20/1 Native Bob, 50/1 Anthony´s Road, Nautical Approach, Oscar Owen, 100/1 El Alamein, 200/1 Mister Pan, Rocket Pocket.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Ogee, Phoudamour and Quail set a fair standard but CAPE TRIBULATION has shown bundles of promise both on the Flat and in bumpers, and could be a very smart hurdler in the making.
Fav now 6/4 with 2nd fav out to 11/2 – significant? 7 of the 13 runners are 80/1 or bigger which builds up our case for place backing. 5 horses sub double figure odds in the betting forecast – 3 of which will place 2.62 / 1.42
135 UTTOX
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Just Like That, 4/1 Nayodabayo, 5/1 Norman Beckett, 13/2 Chunky Lad, 8/1 All Roads Lead, The Abbots Habit, 33/1 Fishguard Filly, Matinee Idol.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: JUST LIKE THAT has made a positive start for Evan Williams and this looks ideal, especially with the stable going so well. 2.62 / 1.34
A 2 mile 6 seller and a hint of a price gap
210 UTTOX
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Call Me A Legend, 3/1 Youngstown, 7/2 Moves Goodenough, 8/1 Key Cutter, 14/1 Nothingbutthetruth, 25/1 Dance Island, Marlyn Ridge, 33/1 Cartoonist.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Call Me A Legend and Youngstown are likely to dominate the market after showing up so well in bumpers but don’t rule out MOVES GOODENOUGH, who has the ability to trouble them both if he’s got the stomach for hurdling
Interesting betting forecast with nly 4 horses sub double figure odds. Fav is an Alan King horse and his string have been in great form 2.1 / 1.22
620 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Plush, 13/2 Dushstorm, 9/1 Rowan Lodge, 12/1 Mr Chocolate Drop, Royal Manor, Time To Regret, 14/1 Merrion Tiger, 16/1 Machinate, 20/1 Lunar Limelight, 25/1 All You Need, Miss Clarice, Moyoko, 66/1 Foursquare Flyer.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The unpenalised Plush is likely to be very tough to beat here, but a chance is taken on MERRION TIGER whose third at Newmarket in July reads very well and who has joined a yard in great form
Class 6 0-60 handicap – low grade stuff but that’s an eyecatching price gap – MErrion Tiger now 7/1 – potential 16/1 system bet? 2.24 / 1.24
650
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Arabian Mirage, 11/4 Nemorosa, 9/1 Flora Trevelyan, 10/1 Chic Shanique, Telling Stories, 12/1 Passage To India, Volochkova, 14/1 Seminal Moment, 20/1 Chic Retreat, Gurteen Diamond, 25/1 Luckier, 33/1 Risque Belle.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: NEMOROSA needs to improve if Arabian Mirage reproduces her Newmarket effort, but she shapes as if this step up to 7f will be very much in her favour and she can get off the mark here. Flora Trevelyan looks the most interesting newcomer
Interesting gap between the first 2 and the rest of the field BUT this is a maiden fillies event and 7 of the 12 are debutants hence we cannot possibly know how good or otherwise they are!
NEM 2.86 / 1.29
AM 3.5/1.41
Note the early move for Nemorosa
SHORTLIST
To include 125 Cheltenham because its 8 runners with 2 at least that can be safely discounted
435 GREAT LEIGHS – still paying out 3 the place here for 7 runners and at least one strong outsider – good probability bet
210 UTTOX – again 8 runners – 3 the place – Alan King favourite
I will chance all 3 on a stop when my target profit is met basis so here’s hoping it’s Big fella thanks although given it is Satrday and many can follow the markets , a move for 2nd fav must be noted as he is so close to the fav.