A standard maiden only market yesterday with Hayley Turner’s mount gambled on as if defeat was out of the question. Meanwhile Saints Bay drifted out to 3/1 and 1.76 to place at the off! YIKES! Still he came 2nd for place money
Ashkazar the highlight for the market movers – done far too early yesterday so lesson learned. Nearer race time today
110 LEOPARDSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Mourad, 9/4 Ebadiyan, 7/2 Jumbo Rio, 12/1 Kyrie Eleison, Manor Park, Ready To Rocknroll, 14/1 Celtic Strand, 20/1 Aitchiface.
3 sub 12/1 in a grade 2 event. Edadiyan the one who has leapfrogged Mourad into favouratism 1.19 place
210 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Black Jacari, 5/2 Nice Style, 5/1 Rileyev, 6/1 Thumbs Up, 14/1 Latin Scholar, She Is A Cracker, 16/1 Ski Sunday, 25/1 Monsieur Cadou, 33/1 Hampton Court, 40/1 Cesium, 50/1 Rio Laine.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Black Jacari should be capable of winning an ordinary race at some stage but he hasn’t been progressing and his jumping has lacked fluency on occasions. He may not be one to take too short a price about and NICE STYLE, rated 99 on the Flat in Ireland, is an interesting alternative. Thumbs Up and Rileyev are others to consider
Maiden hurdle in soft – Nice style well backed into odds on favouratism but this is a maiden hurdle and this is a maiden in this type of race.
Black Jacari has Thornton on board so for me has to enter calculations but his string of seconds, although good for place only betting, signals that the horse doesn’t want to do it at the business end 1.35 both of the front 2 to place
215 LEOPARDSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 9/10 Hurricane Fly, 11/4 Cousin Vinny, 7/2 Pandorama, 14/1 Zarinava, 25/1 Western Charmer.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The fact that Ruby Walsh will be sitting in the weighing room while two Willie Mullins-trained runners contest a Grade 1 race makes for a most unexpected scenario. However, Paul Townend deserves to keep the ride on HURRICANE FLY, who was so impressive here last time and should have too much pace for stablemate Cousin Vinny and for Pandorama, who probably needs a bit further.
With the fav a non runner and 2 horses originally 14/1 and 25/1, AND still 2 the place, this has the makings of a great probability race. Cousin Vinny has taken over the mantle of favouratism and is odds on. 1.12 Cousin Vinny
240 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Rapid Increase, 4/1 Pret A Thou, 9/2 Omme Antique, Scalini´s, 11/2 Shake The Barley, 13/2 Raysrock, 10/1 Silver Sister, 20/1 Sarahs Gift, 25/1 Mud Monkey, Phoenix Eye, 33/1 Jamesdoubleyou.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Rapid Increase is one to consider on his first try in handicap company over fences, while Shake The Barley still has potential if he can improve his jumping. Omme Antique may show some improvement for the switch to fences but two course winners with fairly solid chances are PRET A THOU and Scalini’s, with slight preference being for the former.[SB]
Saras Gift now 12/1 in places – one non runner at 25/1 should not have caused the potential price cut
245 LEOP
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Cooldine, 3/1 Trafford Lad, 4/1 Forpadydeplasterer, 9/2 Tranquil Sea, 8/1 Nicanor, 9/1 Travino, 12/1 Rare Bob, 20/1 Chiraaz, 25/1 Top Of The Rock.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TRAFFORD LAD, just outstayed over three furlongs further here last time, is tipped to uphold form with those he beat in the Drinmore, with the main danger likely to come from Cooldine, who can be expected benefit from the rise in distance.
9 runner field down to 7 and still 2 outsiders.
2 mile 5 in soft sounds a note of caution. Still 3 the place 1.39 / 1.37 / 1.72 for the front 3 in the betting forecast to place
310 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Phoudamour, 100/30 Western Whisky, 7/2 Pterodactyl, 5/1 A French Horse, 11/2 Bugsy´s Boy, 8/1 Paddys Honour, 14/1 Gershwinner, 40/1 Le Toto, 66/1 Calabrese, Christmas Carol, 100/1 King Of Java, 150/1 Tanner Towers, Tarabela,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Western Whisky and Pterodactyl look possible players on their best form but preference is for PHOUDAMOUR, who has a decent chance on the pick of his hurdles form, may well be suited by the drop in trip and has Tony McCoy on board for the first time.
2 non runners – 4 horses at 100/1 or bigger. 4th fav a non runner McCoy’s Phoudamour 1.43 to place
315 LEOP
BETTING FORECAST: 5/1 Splurge, 6/1 Fen Game, Mourne Rambler, 7/1 Kandari, Kennel Bridge, 10/1 Flag Of Honour, Mission Possible, See U Bob, 12/1 Alexander Severus, Glenquest, Meritorious, Turtle Time Lucky, 14/1 Enter The Indian, Port La Chaine, 16/1 All Diamonds, 20/1 Almanyan.
Alexander Severus into 8/1 -only a 4 point move in a 16 runner field so not a strong market mover
340 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Parlesotho, 7/2 Double Hit, 8/1 Shenanigan, Sisterhood, 9/1 Dansimar, 10/1 Figurita, Giovanna, 12/1 Joli Classical, Mewstone, 14/1 Butterfly Rose, Callerlilly, 25/1 Green ´N´ Gold, Saphire Night.
Sapphire night 14/1
350 LEOP
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Neptune Collonges, 7/2 Notre Pere, 9/2 The Listener, 16/1 Thyne Again, 25/1 Afistfullofdollars, 33/1 Chelsea Harbour.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks ripe for the taking for NEPTUNE COLLONGES, whose bid for a third Irish Grade 1 triumph came to a premature end two out in the Lexus. Notre Pere may give him most to do.
3 horse race? Chelsea Harbor 20/1 in places could hint at a market move.
Well known market leader still odds on anad an element of a price gap, but 2 the place means we have to be spot on 1.34 to place NEptunes Collonges
425 LEOP
BETTING FORECAST: 100/30 Agus A Vic, 7/2 Carronhills, 11/2 Marcus Du Berlais, 8/1 Lydon House, Petertheknot, 12/1 Model Son, 14/1 Old Scew Bald, 16/1 Loggan Lass, 20/1 Bishop´s Lane, Jolly Boy, St Matthew, Tiernan´s Terror, Top Twig, Turn The Corner, 25/1 Law Ella, 33/1 Segnor Du Charmil.
CArronhills now strong fav and Model son 8/1
Hunter chase over 3 miles 1.3 to place
440 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Asturienne, 7/2 Wishfull Thinking, 5/1 King Of Leon, 6/1 Daring Origyn, Quotation Mark, 9/1 Guydus, 12/1 Oujamaflip, 14/1 Takeiteasyjack, 20/1 Hayes Princess, 25/1 Lucky Eric, Walmsley.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An interesting bumper that includes three winners, an intriguing recruit from the point-to-point circuit and a horse dropping back in class after tackling Listed company. The betting should be monitored closely but the verdict goes to ASTURIENNE, with Wishfull Thinking and Quotation Mark among others to consider.[
11 runners down to 7 – 2 clear outsiders – Thornton/king on the market leader. Still 3 the place on BEtfair?
My concern is that this is the last race of the day at Hereford – how will the ground be then? Still 3 to place and ASturienne is 1.3 to place
455 LEOP
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Sicilian Secret, 4/1 Residencia, 5/1 Liss Na Tintri, 7/1 Chargen, 8/1 Rare Commodity, Rockadare, 12/1 Dawn Choir, Uncle Eric, 14/1 Bostons Angel, Ocean Cowboy, Space Race.
2nd and 3rd favs are non runners opening this up for Sicilian Secret -now 2/5 1.08 to place 3 to place
11 runner race down to 7, and similar concerns as above re ground on last race of day at LEop
500 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 General Tufto, 4/1 Afton View, Betteras Bertie, 6/1 Very Well Red, 12/1 Mujma, Piccolo Diamante, 14/1 Rampant Ronnie, 16/1 Fairly Honest, 25/1 Singora Lady, 33/1 Siena,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: General Tufto probably didn’t achieve a great deal when winning here on Thursday but he did at least confirm his effectiveness under the conditions and he does escape a penalty here. Betteras Bertie should be on the premises once more, but AFTON VIEW has shown enough to think he could win a race and looks the pick of the Stewart Parr contingent.[PSm]
One that nearly falls into my price gapper in a class 6 0-55 system. Would prefer to see a more outstanding price gap. 1.36 to place
On a hatrick and Holly Hall riding (who she?)
Middle distance event a concern as is the jockey.
ONE A DAY
Cousin Vinny looks the probability bet of the day at 1.12 , but there may be better value to be had with Nenaphor Collonges at 1.34 ( only 2 to place and a very good field of high quality horses). A faller last time, and in jumps racing ,we always face the potential of fallers (refer Supreme Keano most recently)
Sicilian Secret looks to have lost all main rivals but 1.08 is very short
Elsewhere Man Utd at 1.42 looks superb as does Lyon at home to promotion team Le HAvre at 1.24 – alternative incase the groudn deteriorates at Leopardstown.
You can find info on ground by going to www.racingpost.com – if mention of soft (heavy in places) or words to that effect, then simply no bet.