Looks like yesterday’s blog didn’t load at the site but did at www.whatreallywinsmoney.com and the watchword was RESEARCH! No Racing Post for me yesterday so I waded in with confident German bets not realising they had to draw only. – Lesson learnt!
Today is Ascot, with silly hats and fashion gurus who make Dale Winton look like Sly Stallone.
As to the racing, highly competitive. Will this mean a concerted lay of short priced favourites. As we saw at Cheltenham, highly competitive races with all horses there due to merit means there are no shoe ins
230
ETTING FORECAST: 9/2 Haradasun, 5/1 Sageburg, Tariq, 11/2 Cesare, Darjina, 7/1 Finsceal Beo, Linngari, 20/1 Arabian Gleam, Spirito Del Vento, 33/1 Mount Nelson, 100/1 Honoured Guest
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Four of these finished in fairly close proximity in the Lockinge and it is hard to know who was the most inconvenienced by the steady pace that day or who will come on most for the run. Cesare, who has such a fine record here, is the pick from that quartet but there are dangers from several other quarters too, with last year’s Classic-winning fillies Finsceal Beo and Darjina likely to be bang there and SAGEBURG having emerged as a very interesting proposition for top 1m races when he beat Darjina in the Prix d’Ispahan
From an Irish combos perspective, Aiden O’Brien has 3, with 2 outsiders and Hardasun fancied. The 2 outsiders will, as per usual, act as pace setters for the more fancied runner Hardasun. I will generally go against Johnny Murtagh this festival. I will lay him at short odds to be top jockey in a highly competitive event.
5/1 the field means this is competitive. This means it’s difficult in this case to go with HArdasun -look at the head of the market – 9/2, 5/1, 5/1, 11/2, 11/2, 7/1 – very tight. Mount NElson would be my pick of the Aiden O’Brien trio in a race where I would not get involved.
305
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Fleeting Spirit, 6/1 Takeover Target, 8/1 Kingsgate Native, Magnus, 9/1 Benbaun, 10/1 Dandy Man, 14/1 Equiano, 20/1 Captain Gerrard, Hoh Mike, National Colour, 33/1 Abraham Lincoln, Enticing, Moorhouse Lad, 66/1 Reverence, 100/1 Matsunosuke
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It is hard to oppose FLEETING SPIRIT (nap) who has won all four of her starts over the minimum trip and looked a formidable sprinter when powering clear at Haydock on her return last month. The quartet who chased home the flying Australian mare Miss Andretti in this last year, Dandy Man, Magnus, Takeover Target and Enticing, all try their luck again but the Abbaye 1-2 Benbaun and Kingsgate Native are feared more
Strong words from Spotlight -“hard to oppose” – “should be a tough nut to crack” -signs of a price gap – from a form perspective – 12121 – nigglers can say this is consisitent but inconsistent! Sequence wise looks like a 2? – top RPR – top topspeed –
I’ll chance laying given the minimum trip and hopefully at a price which will not incur too much liability. I’ll lay to win and back to place
Abraham Lincoln is 33/1 and a throw away each way price to perhaps place.
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BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Henrythenavigator, 11/2 Falco, 8/1 Raven´s Pass, Twice Over, 14/1 Rio De La Plata, 16/1 Stubbs Art, 66/1 Alexandros, 150/1 Cat Junior, 200/1 Minneapolis .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Dual Guineas winner HENRYTHENAVIGATOR sets a daunting standard. Significant rain is the most obvious danger, followed by the chance of further improvement from French Classic winner Falco and a resumption of progress for the Craven winner Twice Over
Minneapolis the pace setter here for Henry – value all disappeared – I got him at 11/1 winner earlier in the season!. “should prove extremely hard to beat” proclaims Spotlight. I’ll chance him here.
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BETTING FORECAST: 100/30 Orizaba, 4/1 Himalya, 8/1 Art Connoisseur, Peter Tchaikovsky, 12/1 Icesolator, 14/1 Lord Shanakill, Smokey Storm, 16/1 Intense Focus, 20/1 Awinnersgame, Instalment, Shampagne, Shaweel, 25/1 Thunderous Mood, 33/1 Harwalla, Versaki, 50/1 Square Eddie, 66/1 Blown It, 100/1 I Am The Best.
Peter Tchaikovsky is Aiden O’Brien’s horse here. Interesting that “The market usually gets it right in this race” – a hint perhaps to back 2 market leaders to level stakes or the first 4 market leaders to level stakes with likely loss on favourite?
455 – I’ll lay Bukit Tingii here, to monitor in running – won last 2 – this is a highly competitive handicap.
530
26 runners – YELP! Silver Shoon represents Weld/Smullen and the form looks set up for a 1? Johnny Murtagh is onboard 2nd fav Bushranger. Normally a race to avoid but I’ll chance these 2 each way
715 NA
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Cavallini, 7/2 Leo´s Lucky Star, Petito, 4/1 Lagavulin, 20/1 Party Palace, 25/1 Dew Drop Inn, How Realee, Knapp Bridge Boy, Musango, Wise Men Say, 33/1 Future Legend, Rapid Pete, 40/1 Santinho, 50/1 Hands Free, 100/1 London Mixture .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not a bad contest for the time of year. Choosing between the four major players is not easy but Leo’s Lucky Star and Petito have had chances while Cavallini does not always entirely convince so the unexposed LAGAVULIN is given the vot
Looks like 4 to chose from, market moves not withstanding – Leo’s Lucky Star for me each way
FOOTY
France v Italy today is, I think, a game which both teams must win. The French manager, that bloke from Thunderbirds, seems to be sticking with the veterans. The Italians have also been over reliant on older folks.
I’ll chance laying the draw tonight – it’s short enough and covers, naturally, both contenders
1.77 for under 2.5 goals may be telling. I’ll chance overs tonight at 2.28
Romania look safe and the NEtherlands are safe, so the onus is obviously on the Romanians to secure their safety – a game to leave alone for me.
This is interesting from the RAcing Post website
“IF Holland lose against Romania tonight the perception is they will give themselves a better chance of being crowned European champions and bookmakers are sensing a carve-up in Berne.
A Dutch defeat would knock Italy and France out of the tournament and they have drifted to a best-priced 23-10 for the match despite thrashing Italy 3-0 and hammering France 4-1. ”
These conspiracy theories rarely come true, BUT if you see David Icke in goal for the Dutch ( well he did used to be a professional goalie) then you’ll know something is afoot!