Unable to do proper analysis yesterday in what looked a tricky day with shorties in big fields and long distances and soft ground. McCoy, though, managed a couple of winners, and Aberdeen scraped through ,erm, 5-0 at 1.22 which was a gift in retrospect
100 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 100/30 Inquest, 7/2 Mystic Art, Zero Cool, 5/1 Rapid City, 9/1 Competitor, 16/1 Apache Dawn, Gasat, 20/1 Usetheforce, Waterside, 25/1 Roundthetwist, 40/1 Prix Masque, 66/1 Katie Kingfisher.
Apache Dawn 8/1 and Usetheforce 10/1 – 2 non runners at 20/1 and 25/1 in the betting forecast – these big prices non runners should not have adversely affected the market that much
130 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Woodcote, 3/1 Northern Empire, 7/2 Caribbean Coral, 5/1 Brandywell Boy, 10/1 Don Pele, 14/1 Decider, Ten Down.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: NORTHERN EMPIRE has contributed to his own failure by refusing to settle the last twice but the removal of tongue tie/cheekpieces may help Jamie Spencer to switch him off behind the likely strong pace and he could be the one to beat. Woodcote is feared most.[FC]
Northern Empire now leapfrogged Woodcote into favouratism. Class 6 claimer over 5 f though 1.57 to place should really sound a note of caution albeit in an illiqid market
140 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Higgy´s Boy, 9/4 Forget It, 5/1 Terrasini, 10/1 Aather, Always Bold, 14/1 Criterion, 20/1 Gofannon, 25/1 Bespoke Boy, 33/1 Pick Of The Day, 50/1 Treeko.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: HIGGY’S BOY has produced enough on the Flat and over hurdles to suggest he’s up to defying a penalty at this level and remains a bright prospect. Terrasini and Forget It can fight out minor honours.[BDO]
An interesting race with Forget it a non runner. Higgy’s Boy the obvious beneficiary. aather cut now too
Only 4 horses sub 20/1 in the live betting market 1.23 Higgys Boy
150 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Acordeon, 6/1 Diamond Brook, Nono Le Sage, 10/1 Mad Moose, Nothing´s Easy, 12/1 Tiger O´Toole, 14/1 Pourdel, 20/1 Ballybart, Skip The Present, 33/1 Autumn Harvest, Wenruthlyn, 40/1 Ring For Time, Will Exell, Wisteria Lane, 50/1 Chippewa Chief, Come On Eddie.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Little worthwhile hurdling form to work with and every chance that one of the newcomers to the game will step up to the mark. ACORDEON is no superstar but his credentials in bumpers read well enough and he may prove the answer, though confidence behind either Nono Le Sage or Diamond Brook could be significant.[JN]
Price gapper in a maiden hurdle – fav based, I suppose on Champ jockey being on board. Nothings easy is now 5/1 and as you’ll read in the next newsletter, these type of market movers tend to run well (that’s the death knell now for Nothings Easy who’ll come last by 20 lengths!)
1.32 to place the fav
155 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Pomme Tiepy, 3/1 Head Of The Posse, 9/2 Mick The Man, 6/1 Cockleshell Road, 8/1 Part Presenting, Sibenek, Tinakellylad, 10/1 Ar Aghaidh Leat, Deal Done, 20/1 Duartin, 25/1 Yer Grand, 33/1 Followmeuptocarlow.
Pomme Tiepy I know well. I should think the winner will come from the front 3 here
225 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Baseball Ted, 6/1 Battlefield, 7/1 Tyup Pompey, 8/1 Mr Prickle, 10/1 Stealing Moments, 12/1 Golden Duck, Just Like That, Smoke Trail, 14/1 Mad Professor, 25/1 Mungo Jerry, Walsingham, 33/1 Colliers Court, 50/1 Nabir.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Baseball Ted has plenty going for him, not least the fact that he is in front of the handicapper, but he may be taken on for the lead and might be worth opposing. TYUP POMPEY is no superstar but he goes well around here and should give supporters a shout for their money.[JN]
Price gapper in this handicap chase.
Walsingham now 18/1 in places. 1.43 to place , quite high
245 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Noticeable, 11/2 Titfer, 6/1 Magic Kahyasi, 9/1 Cashmere Jack, 10/1 Newgate, 12/1 Red Expresso, 25/1 Bonny Bright Eyes, Etoile D´Or, 33/1 Kassuta, Wotavadun, 40/1 Beresford Lady, 50/1 Kingdom Of Heaven, 66/1 Cool Contender, Feeling Peckish.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With the headgear jettisoned, NOTICEABLE is given his last chance. Titfer and Cashmere Jack are among those most likely to profit if the selection doesn’t fancy it.[PJ]
Noticeable price gap on, er, Noticeable here ,but we must put this in context – this is a seller. positives -Thornton/King
Negatives – read Spotlight – “last chance” – not quite “will be very hard to beat!” 1.19 to place
255 PUNCH
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Quevega, 3/1 Ambobo, 5/1 Sesenta, 6/1 On The Way Out, Woodbine Willie, 10/1 Vic Venturi, 12/1 Buachaill On Eirne, 20/1 Toofarback.
Early support for the Mullins/Walsh horse here at 6/4 1.32 to place
300 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Gee Dee Nen, 3/1 Threatening To Pay, 5/1 Earth Dream, 8/1 Putney Bridge, 10/1 Sound Stage, 16/1 Quel Bruere, 40/1 Oscar Gold, 66/1 Royal Jasra, 100/1 Heezbehindyou, 150/1 Cartoonist.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Two or three of these are potential improvers, notably Threatening To Pay and Sound Stage but the debut effort of GEE DEE NEN makes him the one to beat.[JN]
Only 2 under 12/1 in the live market 1.14 and 1.26
330 PUNCH
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Sports Line, 7/1 Cinnamon Toast, 8/1 Dundrum, Glenview Leader, Killeenmore, 10/1 Afistfullofpebbles, 14/1 Come To The Party, Heavenly Bound, 16/1 Itsuptoyou, 20/1 Just Two Numbers, Sir Sandy Tumtuc, Wellforth, 25/1 An Tarbh Donn, Coole West Ruby, Hellyhunter, Littlewood Lass, Tropical Island, 33/1 Big Julie, Killoranbawn, Light Mist, Mighty Vexatious, Viennalady,
Price gapper in a 22 runner maiden hurdle has the right man on board 1.12 – does this show the confidence that he would be this short in such a big field?
345 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Here Comes Danny, 11/4 Raimond Ridge, 4/1 Rocoppelia, 9/2 Romantic Queen, 9/1 Quick Single,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: HERE COMES DANNY (nap) looks a sprinter going places and can follow up his maiden win at the expense of Raimond Ridge.[GN]
Now 11/10 1.39 – illiquid market – only 2 the place
410 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Ultimate Limit, 4/1 National Petition, 7/1 Cannon Fire, 8/1 Wizards Dust, 9/1 Autumn Red, 10/1 Solid As A Rock, 14/1 Victree, 16/1 Crank Hill, Lancer Scott, 20/1 Jacarado, 25/1 Walton Way, 33/1 Well Saved, 40/1 Curly Spencer, Themanfrommayo.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: NATIONAL PETITION has had a bit of a break and may well resume his improvement – his stable’s form certainly gives plenty of encouragement – to register his fourth win of the season. Fontwell winner Ultimate Limit is a huge danger if in the same form on this second run since a long absence.[RA]
Crank Hill now 8/1
430 DON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Paradise Bay, 4/1 Benny Boy, 9/2 Nocatee, 5/1 Jubilee George, 7/1 Only Dreams, 15/2 Oaklands Luis, 8/1 Benwell, 25/1 Earl Sigurd.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks ferociously difficult and virtually all of these can be given a chance of sorts. BENNY BOY has a good record fresh and should find this trip to his liking. Paradise Bay heads a long list of dangers.[JN]
Only Dreams now 4/1
440 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Baby Run, 4/1 Man From Highworth, 9/2 Kaldouas, 8/1 It´s Like That, 12/1 Hambaphambili, 14/1 Gulabill, 16/1 Magnetic Pole, 20/1 Howard Howard, 25/1 Predicament, Von Origny, 33/1 Hoh Nelson, Lanicene, The Sneakster, Would Wouldnt, 40/1 Five O Venture, Le Seychellois, 50/1 An Capall Dubh, Little Rocker.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Baby Run gave it a go at Bangor under his promising young rider while Kaldouas will be a real threat if he has maintained most of his ability. Though there is a slight ground concern, MAN FROM HIGHWORTH has the ability to go very close in this company and is given the vote.[JN]
Von Origny now 14/1
500 DON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Lightening Rod, 5/1 Par Avion, 6/1 Vivarini, 8/1 Doc Wells, Gaye Starlet, 10/1 Florarossa, 12/1 Grand Zouki, 14/1 Gunpoint, 16/1 Hudibras, Peachey Moment, Zero Six Zoo, 25/1 Be My Deputy, Froggy Lane, Rockall, Rollwiththepunches, 50/1 Neltara.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PAR AVION did well to overcome trouble to win here on her debut and can draw upon that experience to follow up over a longer trip that ought to suit. Doc Wells and Lightening Rod are obvious threats.[BDO]
Peachy moment
Peachy Moment now 4/1
650 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Grimes Faith, Step It Up, 9/2 Towy Valley, 5/1 Storey Hill, 10/1 Bluebok, Guto, Steel City Boy, 12/1 Ask Jenny, 20/1 Maryolini.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Plenty of pace on here and that could count against the otherwise interesting Storey Hill. Grimes Faith is in good form and should go well, but STEP IT UP (nap) remains on a good mark and should be ideally suited by a good gallop at this trip.[PSm]
Steel City Boy 6/1 in places
750 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: Evs King´s Head, 5/1 Quince, 7/1 Profit´s Reality, 10/1 Celticello, Cossack Prince, 12/1 St Savarin, 16/1 Krugerrand, 33/1 Bernabeu.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: KING’S HEAD isn’t entirely straightforward but he is a cut above the usual class of horse found in claiming company and he can follow up his recent success at this level. Quince may be the one to chase him home
Price gapper – price gap enhanced in the live market. Bernebau now 12/1 – quite an eyecatcher!
1.18 to place
ONE A DAY
Another day where I like to look at the footy as we have shorties in big fields over obstacles and preference is for footballers in big fields NOT over obstacles
2 stand out today – MAn Utd at home to Fulham at 1.24 ( likely to trade bigger in running as I suspect Fulham may be tough to break down)
Rangers are 1.11 away to Forfar and looks a solid target profit per day bet (team news required here )
140 DON – Higgys Boy at 1.23 looks primed given the absence of near market rival and the layout of the pricing indicating a separation between him and the rest of the field
300 LUDLOW – Gee Dee Enn at 1.14 is another likely contender in a race where only 2 are under 12/1
Both these bets are open to the horse falling ( as has happened previously) which is why I don’t like them 100%
330 PUNCH – biggest price gapper of the day and the 1.12 to place on a 20+ runner maiden hurdle really tempts me, BUT this is a maiden hurdle, and typical of the type of race we face today.
The clue is in the title. These are horses new to this type of race UNDER RACE CONDITIONS ( they have probably been schooled effectively)
At the prices, a chance on Higgys Boy today.