Looks like Conflictofinterest had some guinness with his oats. photo 2nd, but place backers happy. THe bet of the day was Boscage in a 3 runner race with the outsider drifting to 33/1. I got 1.11 to place and nearly fell off my chair!. 1.11 to beat the rag effectively!
Peter pole was a horse to take out of yesterday – one you should stick in your black book – if he appears in any ante post listings for Big race events, he should be considered. THe market move was telling
All place bets came in. They didn’t fancy Elliwan yesterday as Dale Gibson took over, and make a rick of the race, but Elliwan steadied into the final turn and got the place which was key. This is why I hate middle distance races ( 1 mile 3 / 1 mile 4 etc)
200 LING
Long Handicap: Mister Benji 8-4, Baba Ghanoush 8-4
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Alfredtheordinary, 9/2 Kielty´s Folly, 5/1 Double Valentine, 6/1 Very Well Red, 8/1 Free Tussy, 9/1 Moayed, 10/1 Mansii, 12/1 Miss Clarice, 20/1 Kannon, Mister Benji, 25/1 Baba Ghanoush, Pharaohs Justice.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Several in with a chance in an open handicap, not least Free Tussy if he can finally get it together, but whether he merits backing under an apprentice is a moot point and ALFREDTHEORDINARY, who won with some authority here last time and remains on a fair mark, is preferred. Double Valentine looked to be coming back to the boil nicely last time and should also go well.[GN]
An 8/1 non runner may make the 16/1 system redundant -3 possibles in Bab Ghanoush (14/1) ,Master Benji and Kannon (both 14/1)
Normally I would dismiss as too many qualifiers but this is an apprentice handicap and Spotlight tells us it is open
210 CHEP
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Izita Star, 9/4 Bella Haze, 5/1 Bahia Blanca, Flow Gently Along, 12/1 Act Three, 14/1 Zi Missile, 20/1 Blandys Wood, Thedeboftheyear, 33/1 Star Lady, 50/1 Ilewinbepatient, 66/1 Mangonel, 100/1 Quoin, 150/1 Missie Geore, Princess Arwen, 200/1 Neat ´n Tidy.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Previous winners Izita Star (particularly if the ground dries out) and Bella Haze are very likely to be involved but, in receipt of 7lb, it may be worth taking a chance on BAHIA BLANCA, given that the pick of her bumper form entitles her to respect and there’s a fair chance that a short break, plus a drop in trip/grade, will have a positive effect.[SB]
4 only under 20/1 Izita now 13/8 in places and Bahia Blance 4/1 1.27, 1.38 , 2.06 the front 3 to place
220 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/11 Lindeman, 5/1 Valemount, 8/1 Mighty Bold, 20/1 Half Hib, Unoitmakessense, 25/1 Al Qanoon, 33/1 Back To Reality, Boomtown Kat, Honest, 40/1 Kahyasi Jack, Own Up, Wherrimon, 50/1 Calusa Lily, 66/1 Light Entertainer, 100/1 Classic Lea, Imstilldreaming, 150/1 Deano Rosa, Mr Bojangels.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With the ground in her favour, LINDEMAN has been found the ideal opportunity. Valemount, whose stable started the week in such explosive fashion, looks sure to be suited by racing over a longer trip over hurdles and is the potential threat.[PJ]
18 runners and the excellent Barry Geraghty on the hot pot. 12 are 50/1 or bigger. It’s a maiden hurdle but the jockey may swing it for me 1.08 to place
230 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Desert Dreamer, 100/30 Obe Royal, 11/2 Networker, 13/2 Landucci, 7/1 Interactive, 10/1 Boss Hog, 20/1 Kabis Amigos, 25/1 Fun In The Sun, 33/1 Aggbag, Bidable, Willie Ever, 50/1 Sharps Gold, 66/1 Miracle Baby.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Networker is a dangerous floater having won back form this sort of break before but DESERT DREAMER is a reliable sort at this level and can overcome a wide draw, possibly at the expense of Landucci. Boss Hog will be dangerous if allowed his own way in front.[GN]
Kabis Amigos 10/1 in places
240 CHEP
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Mount Benger, 9/2 Critical Stage, 11/2 Cursum Perficio, 11/1 Masjoor, 12/1 Bundle Up, Shanahan, 16/1 Decree Nisi, Fortification, 66/1 Mr Tambourine Man, 150/1 Muraqeb.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Adjusted BHA ratings aren’t always the be all and end all at this level but MOUNT BENGER (nap) has at least 9lb in hand and will think he’s been let loose even off this weight after a gallant effort under a welter burden last time. Cursum Perficio probably has a better chance than this season’s form figures might suggest.[SB]
Champion Jock on board the hot pot – no market movers – 3 of the 10 runners are 50/1 or bigger 1.1 to place
300 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Anacreon, 5/2 Head Down, 6/1 Ponting, 8/1 Garter Knight, 14/1 Highgate Cat, La Gifted, 25/1 Gambling Jack, 33/1 Stylish Mover, 50/1 Georgina Macrae, Holoko Heights, 66/1 Tightrope.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The standard set by the consistent Head Down is not a demanding one and ANACREON (nap), who showed promise at Newmarket on his only start last autumn, can progress past him.[AC]
Head Down has leapfrogged into favoiuratism and has the experience in this maiden – placed in 7 of 10 starts and Richard Hughes on board
Keep an eye out for Holoko Heights – why 16/1 in the live market? Head Down 1.22 to place
315 CHEP
BETTING FORECAST: 5/1 Extra Bold, 8/1 Change Agent, Zimbabwe, 10/1 Deep Pockets, Merry Storm, Serengeti Sunset, The Artful Fox, 12/1 Carnt Spell, Huckleberry, Sir Winston, 16/1 Laudamus, 20/1 Tomillielou, 25/1 Major Belle, Orion Star, Saddler George, Top Dawn, 50/1 All Sonsilver.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Poor fare but several of interest, most notably MERRY STORM for whom the booking of Jamie Moore (who has not ridden for the stable in the last five seasons) takes the eye. Change Agent and Sir Winston could give him most to do.[FC]
Merry Storm (9/2) and Sir Winston (7/1) the movers
325 WARW
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Gold Award, 3/1 Enfant De Lune, 11/2 Elk Trail, 7/1 Aegean Prince, 10/1 Martin´s Friend, 12/1 The Wily Woodcock, 20/1 Barathea Blazer, Punta Galera, Valento, 25/1 Bite The Boss, 66/1 Daraiym, 100/1 Nowzdetime, 200/1 Cnidos.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: GOLD AWARD gave the impression he could have pulled out a good deal more at Doncaster last month and looks the one to be on against the doubly penalised Enfant De Lune and Elk Trail.[EMW]
Barry Geraghty on board the fav, hardened into odds on in a race where only 4 are under 20/1. Enfant D’Lune also fancied at 2/1 1.18 / 1.33 to place the front 2
350 CHEP
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Rash Moment, 4/1 Craven, Sula´s Legend, 13/2 Imminent Victory, 9/1 Aheadofhistime, Conny Nobel, 10/1 Jolejoker, 12/1 Morenito, 25/1 Mikado Melody, 33/1 Sailor´s Sovereign, 100/1 Stunning Magic.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Craven is quite tempting off his new mark before the handicapper has a chance to react to his second at Fakenham but he can’t be trusted and could easily capitulate once pressure is applied. Rash Moment is respected but the vote goes to SULA’S LEGEND who posted a solid effort on only his second outing over fences last time.[SB]
Connie Nobel 5/1 in places
400 WARW
BETTING FORECAST: 6/1 Woodlands Genpower, 7/1 Constantius, Prince Of Slane, 8/1 Brumous, Dillay Brook, Salsero, Solid As A Rock, 9/1 Ballygalley Bob, Beauchamp Prince, 10/1 Toni Alcala, 12/1 Walton Way, 14/1 Tradingup, 66/1 Johnny Harris.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: In a race where a frightening number of the contestants failed to give their running last time out, it’s hard to be confident about anything, including PRINCE OF SLANE, who has shown little this season but has duly become well handicapped on his old form for Alan Swinbank and might just revive for the step back up in trip in livelier ground. Salsero might be a possible if taking to the visor but this looks a betting medium for restraint.[PJ]
Walton Way 7/1 in places
410 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 9/2 Zalkani, 5/1 Sir Liam, 6/1 Thorny Mandate, 7/1 Moonshine Creek, 8/1 Carlton Scroop, Pelham Crescent, 10/1 Cape Of Luck, Wizard Looking, 14/1 Penang Cinta, 16/1 Captain Mainwaring, Make Amends, Our Kes, 50/1 Adversane.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Top weight Zalkani is likely to give it another decent try as he bids for his ninth course success, but MOONSHINE CREEK progressed really well last year and may be able to continue the good run of the Peter Hiatt yard with Chris Catlin booked.[AC]
Sir Liam now 3/1 and Wizard Looking 5/1 in places
500 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Trust Fund, 5/1 The Big Breakfast, 7/1 Geeveem, 9/1 El Hombre Del Rio, 10/1 Even More, 12/1 Holly Walk, 14/1 Exceptionnel, 25/1 Good Book, Shady Hollow, 33/1 Dimitri, Wings Of Hope, Zesta Fiesta, 40/1 Another Chat, Frosty Jak, Rebel Army, 50/1 Black Smoke, Idbury, Swifts Hill, Whatever You Think, 66/1 Thompsons Wood.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Plenty of dead wood here. It is difficult to say what some of the former handicappers are capable of now, but TRUST FUND looks sure to play a big part if in anything like the form he showed for Paul Nicholls last season. El Hombre Del Rio may be the best each-way alternative.[FC]
20 runner hunter chase and a price gapper. Good book 14/1. Not a price gapper, Trust Fund, that I’d be place backing 1.74 to place
510 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 No Supper, 8/1 Bull Market, 10/1 Early Wings, New Rackheath, 14/1 Upright Ima, Wise Owl, 16/1 Acapulco Bay, Mix N Match, Most Definitely, St Savarin, 20/1 Tutor, 25/1 Webbswood Lad, 33/1 Berties Brother, Smart N Sharp, 50/1 Fantastic Morning, 66/1 Silver Prophet, Twice Charmed, Wisteria Lane.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Tim Vaughan has shown a Midas touch with cast-offs and NO SUPPER (nap), 16lb ahead of the handicapper, has obvious prospects of supplementing his impressive recent C&D success. Bull Market, interestingly weighted on his Flat form, could prove his most serious rival.[PJ]
Very eyecatching price gapper here but 18 runners dampens enthusiasm a little. Handicap hurdle means 4 places which is a plus
Early wings (7/1) ,Wise Owl(8/1) , Tutor (16/1) potential market movers. 1.25 to place 4 the place
540 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Wild Is The Wind, 100/30 Petitjean, 7/2 Take The Stand, 5/1 Waynesworld, 16/1 Cash In Hand, 20/1 Verchoyles Lad, 25/1 The Sneakster, 33/1 Shammy Buskins.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The wellbeing of Take The Stand is the key question but like last winter, he was quiet on his return from a holiday at Huntingdon. A chance is taken on the fitness of WILD IS THE WIND, who thrived for his new connections last spring, especially when making the running.[EMW]
Take the stand 2/1 in places
550 LING
ETTING FORECAST: 100/30 Colour Of Money, 4/1 Silidan, 7/1 Binnion Bay, Sands Of Barra, 17/2 H Harrison, 10/1 Mr Chocolate Drop, Over To You Bert, 11/1 Buail Isteach, Suhayl Star, 12/1 Just Jimmy, 25/1 Palais Polaire, 33/1 Annes Rocket, 40/1 Softly Killing Me.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Silidan is very much of interest after coming back to form when a well-backed winner over C&D last time but preference is still for COLOUR OF MONEY, who didn’t show much in three sprint maidens on turf last year but who is related to a stack of winners and whose shrewd connections are keeping the faith with him this year. He has to be of real interest off a mark of 55 on this handicap and AW debut. [MCu]
Binnion Bay 4/1 in places, Suhayl star 5/1 in places ,Mr Choc 7/1 in places, potential movers
720 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Dunes Queen, 5/1 Peninsular War, 11/2 Robin The Till, Swans A Swimming, 10/1 The Hague, 20/1 Marzy, 25/1 Oceanic Dancer, 50/1 Fravia, Lighthearted.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mick Channon has been enjoying a good run, particularly with his 3yos, and it will be disappointing if his 1,000 Guineas entry DUNES QUEEN cannot keep up the good work here under conditions that are likely to suit much better than when third at Newbury last October.[AC]
9 runner race reduced to 6 with fav remaining intact – if still 3 the place, this looks a great probability bet 1.1 to place in an illiquid market
820 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Scintillo, 11/4 Luberon, 5/1 Love Galore, 8/1 Big Robert, 14/1 Baylini, 50/1 Mildoura.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not a strong Listed race with just one runner rated in the 100s and Scintillo will find this easier than many of the tasks he has faced of late. That said, he isn’t entirely straightforward and goes without headgear again, so he could be worth taking on with LUBERON. Mark Johnston’s 6yo has gone well after a break in the past, is fully effective on the AW and could get an easy time of things up front here.[PSm]
Luberon 13/8 in places
850 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Key Regard, 7/2 Royal Society, 4/1 Merton Lad, 6/1 Dollar Express, Supernoverre, 10/1 Nicky Nutjob, 12/1 Lilly Blue.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A few of these have doubts over this trip and it may pay to stick with KEY REGARD and Merton Lad, both of whom have no stamina concerns. The former created a good impression at Lingfield last time and that form received a boost when the well-beaten second went in at Kempton on Monday. Royal Society looks best of the rest.[PSm]
Key Regard 7/4
920 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Leonaldo, 3/1 Caprio, 5/1 Dvinsky, 7/1 Tartan Gigha, 8/1 Carlitos Spirit, Papillio, 10/1 Hallingdal, 20/1 Non Sucre.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Dvinsky and Caprio are both respected here but LEONALDO (nap) looked a surefire future winner when finding only Gallantry too strong last time and he can overcome his rise in the weights.[PSm]
Hallingdal 13/2 in places
SHORTLIST
220 WARWICK – Lindeman 1.08 to place. Again today we have very unappetising prices – only 3 under 25/1 – but 18 runner race. BUT does have Barry Geraghty on board
240 CHEPSTOW – Mount Benger has the Champion Jockey on board – 1.1 to place again unappetising – now 1/2 in places highly encouraging for place only
300 LING – HEad Down at 1.22 represents a bigger price – Richard Hughes on board for this maiden who has placed in 7 of his last 10 starts – some will call it experience – others will say he’s “exposed” Now 5/4 fav and only 4 under 20/1
510 WaRWICK – No Supper at 1.25 again represents a better price – 4 to place – price gap is very eyecatching still but 2nd fav a market mover into 7/1.
720 KEMPTON – Dunces Queen – 1.1 to place in an illiquid market. Now only 6 runners but 3 places at time of writing give this horse only 3 to beat to place
ONE A DAY
I will go in time order today starting with Lindeman at another poor price, but I hope to be able to tick off another target profit quickly
Bigger prices – I think I may favour Heads Down today – yes a poor maiden race but a horse placed 70% of the time and the right guy on board